Business Day

Opinion

The long succession battle in Zanu-PF has come to a bitter and sudden end — with a twist very few Zimbabwean citizens would have dared to imagine.

Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s ruler of nearly four decades, was forced to resign in shame on Tuesday after growing pressure from the public and his rejection by Zanu-PF, which removed him as party head on Sunday.

His wife, Grace, who had been under house arrest at their Harare mansion, was told by soldiers to “stay in the kitchen” as the military besieged their residence and moved to sideline the woman who thought she would be the next president.

The military, represented by army commander General Constantino Chiwenga, has emerged as the poster boys of the victory. As the dust begins to settle, it is clear the soldiers have pushed out Mugabe, ended Grace’s presidential ambitions and became the king makers of the Zanu-PF succession battle.

Mugabe’s allies, the group known as G40, had gone head to head in the race for the presidency with another faction, Lacoste, led by Emmerson Mnangagwa. Members of the G40 have either been forced into exile or detained by the military.

Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights (ZLHR) says it is concerned by the arrests and detention by the military of people during Operation Restore Legacy — the military-led offensive that sent tanks into Harare’s central business district.

“The ZLHR urges the Zimbabwe Defence Forces [ZDF] to follow the due process of law, to guarantee protection of all pretrial rights and safety of any detainees and to grant them immediate and unequivocal access to their lawyers, family members and medical practitioners of choice,” the organisation said in a statement.

“The ZDF must prevent any incidents of torture, or other cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment and prevent the occurrence of any enforced disappearances or incommunicado detention,” it said.

Some of the exiled G40 members, such as key Mugabe strategist Jonathan Moyo, have been tweeting their thoughts.

“There’ll never be anyone like Mugabe. I’m grateful for the opportunity to have served my country under and with him. I’m proud that I stood with and by this iconic leader during the trying moments of the last days of his presidency. Democracy requires politics to lead the gun,” Moyo tweeted as Mugabe resigned on Tuesday.

Like nearly 20 other former high-ranking party officials — including political commissar Saviour Kasukuwere, Mugabe’s nephew Patrick Zhuwao, vice-president Phelekezela Mphoko and finance minister Ignatius Chombo — Moyo has been expelled from Zanu-PF.

David Coltart, a former education minister and an official in the Movement for Democratic Change, says the demise of the G40 faction marks the end of the succession battle, which had become the top feature in the affairs of the ruling party.

He doubts that new Zanu-PF head Mnangagwa would reach out to the core leaders of the G40 faction.

“But, undoubtedly, he will try to woo some of its supporters on the periphery. He needs that bloc of support in the run-up to the election next year,” he says.

Mnangagwa may be able to command obedience within Zanu-PF as he strengthens control over the politics of survival and opportunism in the party, but he has a credibility deficit to address, especially outside of Zanu-PF, both in and outside of Zimbabwe

International Crisis Group Southern Africa director Piers Pigou says it will be interesting to see how Mnangagwa navigates the narrative that only the G40 “cabal” has been responsible for Zimbabwe’s mess.

“We all know culpability is much broader in this regard. Mnangagwa may be able to command obedience within Zanu-PF as he strengthens control over the politics of survival and opportunism in the party, but he has a credibility deficit to address, especially outside of Zanu-PF, both in and outside of Zimbabwe. It is a massive challenge, but also a tremendous opportunity,” Pigou says.

How it came about that the G40 faction, which earlier in November had come within an arm’s length of power, was driven out of the country can be explained in the missteps of Grace. She had taken on Mnangagwa, an army man before becoming a civilian in the government and moving up the party ranks.

Grace had been on a vicious warpath since she went on youth interface rallies — which were campaigning in disguise ahead of the 2018 elections. The rallies were public lynchings — first of officials seen to be close to Mnangagwa, and then Grace called for his dismissal from office for plotting to succeed Mugabe.

For Grace, Mnangagwa represented the last of the liberation fighters in Zanu-PF who could stand up to her — hence the vicious attacks, similar and consistent to those she aimed at vice-president Joice Mujuru in 2014, which led to her being routed from the party.

In some circles, it was seen as a fight between two generations — the older, represented by Mnangagwa, which had a stake in the country’s history, against a younger generation represented by Grace, which comprised upstarts and political novices.

The G40 generation lived lavishly, with an affinity for luxury vehicles such as Rolls-Royces and Maybachs. Their showing-off was despised by the citizens, who were hard-hit by economic hardship.

Grace was seen as the queen of profligacy — in her final days as first lady, she went on a property buying spree in Johannesburg and Harare.

She took ownership of a new Rolls-Royce and was reported to have had an interest in the establishment of a new airline that was primed to elbow out the $300m debt-riddled national airline, Air Zimbabwe. Her behaviour — beating up model Gabriella Engels in SA in August — further ensured her isolation.

She may have enjoyed some public hero worship and praise, but behind closed doors and in hushed tones, conversations featuring Grace were about how unrestrained she was and how Mugabe was probably having it hard at home.

Tshinga Dube, a military man of 22 years and a former cabinet minister who has fallen out of favour with Mugabe, says the elderly leader had lost the willpower to resist his wife and her demands.

“At 93-years-old, you don’t want to be fighting. You are old and tired and Mugabe simply didn’t have it in him to resist the demands of his greedy wife Grace and those of the people around her,” Dube says.

The axing of Mnangagwa on November 6, after a weekend in which Grace belittled Mnangagwa in an address and was booed at a rally, set off a chain of events that backfired on the G40 faction.

Mnangagwa was fired from the government and the party and was forced to flee into exile — after he had been warned of an assassination attempt.

He later bitterly pointed out in a statement that the security detail usually afforded former deputy presidents was immediately withdrawn for him, leaving him vulnerable and exposed as political tensions soared.

Last week, the Zimbabwean military stepped in to help one of their own.

Grace had hardly won herself any favours when she criticised and dressed down Chiwenga and dared soldiers to shoot her during her rallies.

“Mnangagwa was attacked separately, so were the army and the war veterans. They all have a similar liberation history and became allies because they had a common enemy, which was Grace,” says Arnold Tsunga, Africa director of the International Commission of Jurists.

“It was clear that if Mugabe had managed to deal with Mnangagwa, he [would be] coming after the army commander. So for Chiwenga’s part, moving in was a pre-emptive strike to protect his position.”

BBC

22nd November 2017

Zimbabwe’s incoming leader Emmerson Mnangagwa has hailed a “new and unfolding democracy” after returning from exile to replace Robert Mugabe. He also vowed to create jobs in a country where some estimates say 90% of people are unemployed.

“We want to grow our economy, we want peace, we want jobs, jobs, jobs,” he told a cheering crowd in Harare. Mr Mnangagwa, who fled to South Africa two weeks ago, is to be made the new president on Friday, state TV said. His dismissal led the ruling party and the military to intervene and force an end to Mr Mugabe’s 37-year long rule.

Mugabe has gone, but will Zimbabwe change?

He told supporters at the headquarters of the ruling Zanu-PF party that he had been the subject of several assassination plots and thanked the army for running the “process” of removing Mr Mugabe peacefully.

The news that 93-year-old Mr Mugabe was stepping down sparked wild celebrations across the country late into Tuesday night.

It came in the form of a letter read out in parliament on Tuesday, abruptly halting impeachment proceedings against him.

In it, Mr Mugabe said he was resigning to allow a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, and that his decision was voluntary.

A spokesman for the ruling Zanu-PF party said Mr Mnangagwa, 71, would serve the remainder of Mr Mugabe’s term until elections that are due to be held by September 2018.
Nicknamed the “crocodile” because of his political cunning, Mr Mnangagwa met South African President Jacob Zuma before leaving for Zimbabwe.

Thousands of party supporters waited for hours to welcome Mr Mnangagwa in his first public appearance since he emerged from hiding.
During his 20-minute speech, he corrected himself at least once for referring to Mr Mugabe as president rather than former president. His message was largely conciliatory.
But he also relished his stunning return to power and successful removal of Mr Mugabe. He brought up Grace Mugabe’s speech a fortnight ago, in which – meaning him – she said we must “deal with the snake by crushing its head”. A day later he was fired.

“I wonder which snake’s head was crushed?” he said to loud cheers.

Mr Mnangagwa’s firing by Mr Mugabe two weeks ago triggered an unprecedented political crisis in the country.
It had been seen by many as an attempt to clear the way for Grace Mugabe to succeed her husband as leader and riled the military leadership, which stepped in and put Mr Mugabe under house arrest.

Under the constitution, the role of successor would normally go to a serving vice-president, and one still remains in post – Phelekezela Mphoko.
However, Mr Mphoko – a key ally of Mrs Mugabe – has just been fired by Zanu-PF and is not believed to be in the country. In his absence, the party has nominated Mr Mnangagwa, the speaker of parliament confirmed.

Some have questioned whether the handover to Mr Mnangagwa will bring about real change in the country.
He was national security chief at a time when thousands of civilians died in post-independence conflict in the 1980s, though he denies having blood on his hands.

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai told the BBC he hoped that Zimbabwe was on a “new trajectory” that would include free and fair elections.
He said Mr Mugabe should be allowed to “go and rest for his last days”.

Prominent opposition politician David Coltart tweeted: “We have removed a tyrant but not yet a tyranny.”

African Union president Alpha Condé said he was “truly delighted” by the news, but expressed regret at the way Mr Mugabe’s rule had ended. “It is a shame that he is leaving through the back door and that he is forsaken by the parliament,” he said.

At 93, Mr Mugabe was – until his resignation – the world’s oldest leader. He once proclaimed that “only God” could remove him.
Lawmakers from the ruling party and opposition roared with glee when his resignation letter was read aloud in parliament on Wednesday.

Activist and political candidate Vimbaishe Musvaburi broke down in tears of joy while speaking to the BBC.

“We are tired of this man, we are so glad he’s gone. We don’t want him anymore and yes, today, it’s victory,” she said.

The Guardian

21st November 2017

Historically, African takeovers have been seismic and violent, but now participants are more wary of international opinion

It looked like a coup from a movie: a convoy of armoured vehicles, the president under house arrest, and the general on the nation’s screens talking of “restoring stability” in the small hours of the morning.

But since the military takeover in Zimbabwe a week ago events have departed from the script. President Robert Mugabe has not been harmed and remains in power, at least theoretically. When he refused to resign on live television on Sunday night, there were no repercussions. To oust him, parliament are using a cumbersome process of impeachment.

There is a stark contrast with many other coups d’état in Africa over the years, which have often seen heavy fighting as the military tried to seize power, and sometimes the death of the incumbent leader.

“I think it is partly a Zimbabwe thing and a lot to do with the personality of Robert Mugabe. He is known as a liberation hero and revered in most African states despite the huge damage he has done to his country, and the military here understood that to hurt him would incur the wrath of much of Africa,” said David Coltart, a senior opposition politician in Zimbabwe.

There have been more than 200 military coups since 1960 in Africa, many leading to seismic changes in the history of countries and regions as well as significant bloodshed. General Idi Amin seized power in Uganda from President Milton Obote in 1971, unleashing a reign of terror still remembered today. The coup d’état in 2012 by mutinying soldiers in Mali so destabilised the country that it allowed Islamic militants to seize much of its northern half, necessitating an intervention by French troops to restore order. Nigeria has seen eight military takeovers.

Leaders have also been assassinated while still in power. Laurent Kabila, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo was shot dead in 2001, for example.

The years of the cold war generated the highest frequency of coups, and much of the worst associated violence.

Yet this has moderated more recently and over the last 15 years there has been a “hardening anti-coup attitude”, according to Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at Birmingham University in the UK.

“Leaders don’t have much of an incentive to encourage free and fair elections but a coup threatens everybody, so it is much easier to get a consensus on anti-coup norms than democratic norms … People are getting smarter at avoiding criticism for coups,” Cheeseman said.

This has meant leaders of takeover are much more careful to manage domestic and international opinion than before. If a transfer of power is declared unconstitutional it can lead to a nation being suspended from the African Union (AU) and suffering significant consequences in terms of aid and investment.

Any new administration in Zimbabwe would have little chance of winning the massive funding required to restructure the collapsing economy if the international consensus was that it was illegal.

Both the AU and the regional South African Development Community (SADC) have been guarded in their statements about the situation in Zimbabwe, and have withheld any endorsement of the takeover.

On Tuesday the SADC meets in Angola to discuss the crisis there. The generals in Harare will be watching their conclusions carefully.

The Guardian

20th November 2017

Draft impeachment motion published by Zanu-PF party but support of opposition parties may be necessary after arrest or flight of some MPs

Robert Mugabe faces being stripped of his office by parliament if he does not resign as president within days, as the political crisis triggered by a military takeover in Zimbabwe moves into a second week.

The 93-year-old had been given a deadline of noon local time on Monday to resign as head of state or face impeachment when parliament reconvenes on Tuesday.

Mugabe ignored the deadline and instead called a cabinet meeting for 9am on Tuesday. A notice from his chief secretary said all ministers should attend.

Adding to the confusion, Constantin Chiwenga, the army chief who took power last week, held a press conference at which he described further consultations with “his excellency President Robert Mugabe” held in an atmosphere of mutual respect.

Chiwenga said Emmerson Mnangagwa, the former vice-president whose firing two weeks ago triggered the military takeover, would return to Zimbabwe shortly and was in touch with the president.

“The nation will be advised of the result of talks between the two,” he said.

The general made no mention of the potential impeachment of Mugabe, who was stripped of his party offices by Zanu-PF on Sunday.

A draft impeachment motion published by Zanu-PF said the ageing leader was a “source of instability” who had shown disrespect for the rule of law and was to blame for an unprecedented economic tailspin over the past 15 years.

Although Zanu-PF has the required two-thirds majority in parliament necessary to remove Mugabe, the arrest or flight of some MPs may mean the support of opposition parties is needed for the impeachment motion to pass.

Lawmakers from Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), will hold a meeting on Tuesday to decide whether to join Zanu-PF to impeach Mugabe, according to officials.

David Coltart, the MDC’s secretary for legal affairs, said he supported the move in principle. “I have long felt he should have been impeached for what he has done of the last decades and for how he has violated the constitution,” he said.

Mugabe stunned the southern African country by failing to resign as expected in a televised speech on Sunday night. Instead, his rambling address offered no substantial concessions to the tens of thousands of people who have marched calling for his resignation, though it did exonerate the army commanders who led the military takeover last week.

The autocrat called for compatriots to avoid “bitterness or revengefulness, which would not make us any better … Zimbabweans,” and said he would preside over a special congress of the ruling Zanu-PF party scheduled for next month.

An array of senior commanders sat beside Mugabe as he made his speech. Constantino Chiwenga, the general who led the takeover, turned the president’s pages as he spoke.

Zimbabwe’s powerful war veterans have claimed Mugabe swapped speeches to avoid resigning during the televised address, and they repeated their call for him to go.

“We were disappointed yesterday in the midst of all those generals he appeared to swap [speeches],” Chris Mutsvangwa, who leads the war veterans, told a press conference on Monday morning.

He said the veterans would call for further protests – including a sit-in outside Mugabe’s Harare residence, where he is being held under house arrest – if the president did not heed calls to quit.

Crowds gathered to pray at lunchtime on Sunday in Harare in one impromptu protest, while students called for Mugabe’s resignation at a mass meeting at the city’s University of Zimbabwe campus.

It is unclear how long the procedure to impeach the president might take but it is likely to last several days. Both houses of the Zimbabwean parliament will have to sit at least twice, with the impeachment motion also going to a committee of senators. If it is passed, Mugabe, who as president is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, would then be reduced to the status of any other citizen.

Mnangagwa, 75, was appointed interim leader of Zanu-PF on Sunday and is widely expected to take over from Mugabe as president. Mnangagwa, who is known as “the Crocodile”, orchestrated repeated crackdowns on Zimbabwe’s opposition under Mugabe’s rule.

“There is a real danger that [Mnangagwa] can take over Zanu-PF lock, stock and barrel and enjoy the absolute loyalty of the military, too. He’s younger and more energetic than Mugabe,” said the MDC’s Coltart. “There is no doubt he will impose a Chinese style of government, which is more favourable towards business, but he will curtail democratic freedoms.”

The military has said it has no intention of taking permanent control of government but has indicated it does not want to leave Mugabe in office. The military commanders claim last week’s takeover was necessary to remove “criminals” close to the president, a reference to Grace Mugabe and her “G40” faction.

Grace Mugabe, 52, has not been seen since the takeover. Sources told the Guardian she was in her husband’s Harare residence when he was detained on Tuesday and had not moved since.

A spokesman for Theresa May urged a peaceful and swift resolution to the uncertain political situation. “We don’t yet know how developments in Zimbabwe are going to play out but what does appear clear is that Mugabe has lost the support of the people and of his party,” the UK prime minister’s spokesman said.

An analysis of social media by Brands Eye, a South Africa-based opinion analysis firm, shows that reactions online to the coup among Zimbabweans have been largely neutral, though the overall sentiment expressed towards the coup has been more positive than negative. The references to Mnangagwa and Chiwenga became more positive in the days after the coup, though there were more negative than positive references to both.

Gulf Times

20th November 2017

Members of Zimbabwe’s parliament will vote on whether to impeach President Robert Mugabe on Tuesday, the ruling Zanu-PF party said, after he failed to obey its ultimatum to step down.

“The party has instructed the chief whip to proceed with impeachment proceedings against [Robert Gabriel] Mugabe as it has not received the anticipated confirmation of his resignation from the speaker of parliament,” Zanu-PF said in a statement on Monday. “The motion of proceedings is expected to be tabled before parliament when it [sits] on Tuesday.”

The midday deadline set for President Robert Mugabe to resign passed on Monday with no word from the 93-year-old leader.

“We want all systems ready when we get into Parliament on Tuesday that is why we have asked all MPs to come and get familiar with the process,” Zanu-PF chief whip Lovemore Matuke told DPA.

Zanu PF central committee member Paul Mangwana said the process could take as little as 48 hours. However Lovemore Madhuku, a law professor at University of Zimbabwe, told DPA that the impeachment proceedings could last anywhere between 72 hours and several months. “There are three stages involved. The motion would be moved. Then a committee would be set to investigate the charges, and both the houses, the parliament and senate will vote,” Mangwana explained.

Earlier, Zanu-PF released details of its proposed motion against Mugabe.

“We are gravely concerned that the president has become the country’s source of instability by his indiscriminate and continuous dismissal of members of his cabinet – including two vice presidents in the past four years on allegations of plotting to assassinate him and forcibly
take over power,” the motion reads.

The expelled vice presidents referred to are Joice Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa.

It also mentions Mugabe’s poor management of the economy and his abrogation of “his constitutional mandate to his wife” Grace.

David Coltart, a prominent opposition leader and former minister, said a two-thirds majority was needed to impeach the nonagenarian.

Douglas Mwonzora from Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) also said the party would support Mugabe’s impeachment. “We have the numbers in parliament and will support any democratic process to have Mugabe impeached,” he said.

House arrest

Mugabe has been under house arrest since a military takeover last week. In a live televised address to the nation on Sunday night, the president of almost four decades had been expected to resign, but instead promised to lead a Zanu-PF party conference in December.

With the generals responsible seated next to him, Mugabe gave a lengthy speech acknowledging some problems with the economy and the Zanu-PF party – from which he was ousted earlier in the day – but made no mention of leaving office. Shocked Zimbabweans took to Twitter to express their outrage, and on Monday the powerful war veterans’ association held a press conference calling for mass protests on Wednesday.

“I hope that 37 years into [his] rule he doesn’t want another 37 seconds of rule,” said war veterans’ leader Chris Mutsvangwa.

On Sunday, Mugabe was sacked as Zanu-PF party leader and replaced by one-time comrade turned arch-rival Mnangagwa. “Arrogant Mugabe disregards Zanu-PF,” screamed Monday’s headline in local newspaper the Daily News.

In an unprecedented outpouring, tens of thousands of Zimbabweans had taken to the streets on Saturday to express support for the military and call on Mugabe to leave power immediately.

University students have joined calls for Mugabe to step down, with protests at the main university in Harare. The students are also demanding that a doctorate given to first lady Grace Mugabe be revoked.

“Mugabe should resign now because he has returned our education to Stone Age era. We also want our degree, which Grace stole,” said student leader Steven Tsikirai.