Washington Post
By Michael Gerson
Wednesday, February 20, 2008;
One of the most reckless and cruel acts of government is the destruction of
a currency.
During the hyperinflation of Germany’s Weimar Republic, the number of marks
in circulation went from 29 billion in 1918 to 497 quintillion in 1923.
Workers were paid twice a day and given breaks to spend their money, carted
in wheelbarrows, before it became worthless. Most Germans lost their life
savings, leaving many prepared to blame others for their impoverishment. The
Nazis blamed the Jews.
This kind of hyperinflation is rare in history, but we are seeing it once
again, in Zimbabwe. Government officials claim an inflation rate of 66,212
percent (most months they refuse to release inflation figures at all). The
International Monetary Fund believes the rate is closer to 150,000
percent — about the level reached by Weimar Germany. By some estimates,
about 50 percent of Zimbabwe’s government revenue comes from the printing of
money. At independence in 1980, the Zimbabwean dollar was worth more than
one U.S. dollar. Recently, the state-controlled newspaper raised its cover
price to 3 million Zimbabwean dollars. Two pounds of chicken were recently
reported to cost about 15 million Zimbabwean dollars.
A Zimbabwean friend who runs a business recently told me, “If you don’t get
a bill collected in 48 hours, it isn’t worth collecting, because it is
worthless. Whenever we get money, we must immediately spend it, just go and
buy what we can. Our pension was destroyed ages ago. None of us have any
savings left.” Zimbabwean nationals who work on the U.S. Embassy staff in
Harare have seen all their retirement funds wiped out. American government
officials in the country carry boxes of money to pay at restaurants and must
begin counting out currency at the beginning of the meal to finish by its
end.
The government of Robert Mugabe has responded with the normal economic
policy of tyrants: price controls. And these have naturally emptied the
shelves in grocery stores and caused shortages of most basic goods. My
friend’s wife travels to Botswana to buy flour and sugar.
Mugabe manages to pay off his military leaders and political cronies with
hard currency that comes from mining gold and platinum. He also sells
farmland to Chinese and Libyan speculators — land expropriated from white
farmers, supposedly in the cause of Zimbabwean nationalism. Mugabe is
literally putting his country on the block to maintain his power.
So why don’t the impoverished people of Zimbabwe revolt? “The tragedy is
that nobody is in the streets,” says my Zimbabwean friend. “People are dying
silently.”
Zimbabwe’s odd stability has several causes. More than 3 million
discontented people have fled the country — often the talented and
educated — leaving Mugabe with less internal opposition. Many of the
Zimbabweans who remain avoid starvation with the help of international aid
and remittances from relatives in prosperous neighboring countries. Mugabe’s
political opponents have generally been weak and divided — when not being
jailed and tortured by the government. And some residual support for Mugabe
remains, particularly in rural areas, because he is an anti-colonial hero;
it is hard for many to accept the idea that their founding father is also a
corrupt, brutal incompetent.
There are, however, signs of resistance. My friend reports that lower-level
members of the military and police seem increasingly alienated and
disillusioned. At a demonstration last year, he says, “they were
unenthusiastic and malnourished, with ragged uniforms. They pleaded with us
to go away, because they didn’t want to hurt us. And then I was saluted for
the first time by the police.”
And Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party is beginning to fracture. The former finance
minister — who opposed the policy of printing money and price controls —
is running as an independent against Mugabe in the March 29 election. Simba
Makoni is viewed by U.S. officials as a smart, honest technocrat. He clearly
possesses bravery, though not much grass-roots support.
The March 29 vote, as usual, will be a fraud. Mugabe — despite pressure
from surrounding nations — will conduct a police-state election, with tight
control of the media, corrupt voter rolls and massive intimidation,
including the use of food as a tool of political control. But the opposition
has little choice but to participate. It may gain some support in local
councils and the parliament. And if opponents abandon the electoral route,
says my friend, the only alternative would be “street action, which is
fraught with problems.”
And so Mugabe remains on his bayonet throne as his country becomes the
Weimar Republic and totalitarian, all in one.
michaelgerson@cfr.org