What does the Movement for Democratic Change stand for?

By David Coltart | Published April 10, 2008

The Economist
Apr 10th 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

FOR nine years the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has focused on ousting Robert Mugabe at the ballot box. No one questions the courage and resilience of its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, who has been imprisoned, badly beaten up and survived treason charges. But what if he actually took office?

The MDC says its first job, plainly, would be to rescue the economy: stop printing money, stabilise the currency (with inflation officially now at more than 100,000% a year), slash public spending, call in the IMF and bring market forces back into business, while favouring some state intervention to protect the poorest. It would also scrap controls on prices and foreign exchange, which have fed a thriving black market.

The MDC says it would not give back all confiscated land to white farmers, as Mr Mugabe charges. But it would immediately start drawing up a land audit. It talks of leaseholds and decent compensation for farmers whose land has been grabbed. It also wants to “harmonise” the land-tenure system so that peasants in communal lands have individual title.

The MDC has long demanded a new constitution to limit presidential powers. But Mr Tsvangirai, a former trade union leader with little formal education, has himself been accused of being autocratic in his own party. In 2005 the MDC split after he flouted a decision of his national executive and decided to boycott an election for the Senate, arguing that the people were behind him.
David Coltart, a prominent MDC man, also criticised Mr Tsvangirai’s faction for ignoring violence in the party’s own ranks. The MDC splinter led by Arthur Mutambara refused to endorse Mr Tsvangirai as its presidential candidate in the recent poll, instead backing Simba Makoni, a former minister of the ruling ZANU-PF.

But the election confirmed that Mr Tsvangirai has the backing of Zimbabwe’s masses, especially in towns but also among the rural poor. The MDC’s Mutambara faction won ten seats in Parliament to the main one’s 99. Some of Mr Tsvangirai’s colleagues complain that, far from being autocratic, he listens to too many people and is indecisive. Some of those who wish him well think he has been serially outwitted by Mr Mugabe, especially in the past year’s negotiations under South Africa’s aegis. But the MDC was far readier for the elections this time round. In particular, it wrong-footed Mr Mugabe’s people by airing results from polling stations rather than letting them be centrally tallied.

Would Mr Tsvangirai, if he became president, prove either democratic or competent? Regional precedents are not encouraging. Next door in Zambia, another trade unionist-turned-politician, Frederick Chiluba, defeated the country’s veteran of independence, Kenneth Kaunda, at the polls, but was soon committing many of the worst sins of office. Mr Tsvangirai may be different; in any event, few think he can be as horrible as Mr Mugabe.

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Robert Mugabe steps up land grab violence

By David Coltart | Published April 9, 2008

The Telegraph

By Sebastien Berger in Johannesburg
9th March 2008

President Robert Mugabe’s regime has stepped up its campaign of violence in the wake of Zimbabwe’s elections, evicting more than 60 commercial farmers from their properties.

The brutal response to the polls, in which Mr Mugabe is widely held to have come second to Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change in the presidential race, is a direct echo of what happened last time he lost a vote.

Two weeks after Mr Mugabe lost a referendum on constitutional reforms in 2000, the first white-owned farm was invaded, and four weeks later the first white farmer was killed.

This time – even while the presidential election result has still not been announced – the reaction has come more quickly.
“We’ve got over 60 farmers who have been evicted,” said Trevor Gifford, president of the Commercial Farmers Union. “Every couple of minutes my phone is ringing with another case of eviction. Some are being given a couple of minutes or a day to vacate, but they have to leave what is there behind.”

Two of those forced from their land were black, he added. “They are targeting anyone seen as against the ruling party, it’s really sad,” he said. “We should be living in harmony, we need unity. There is enough land for everyone.”

At the same time several farmers are fighting court actions against eviction orders from the properties they have cultivated for years. With Mr Mugabe claiming the MDC are Western stooges bent on reversing his land reforms, the political motivation behind the invasions by so-called “war veterans” is clear.

Opposition supporters are also being beaten up, according to both the MDC and the campaign team of Simba Makoni, once a stalwart of the ruling Zanu-PF party who stood against his former mentor.

An army source said that at least two military camps, Magunje near Karoi about 125 miles north of Harare, and another in Rusape, about 120 miles south east of the capital, had begun fitness training for a new intake of Mr Mugabe’s youth militia.

The violence appears to be geared towards putting Mr Mugabe in a position where he can win a second-round run-off for the presidency.

Tendai Biti, the MDC secretary-general, said the war veterans’ activity was concentrated in areas that were once Mr Mugabe’s strongholds, where many voters had switched allegiance to the opposition.

“There’s been a complete militarisation and a complete re-arming of mobs who led the terror in 2000 and 2006,” said Mr Biti. “I say to our brothers and sisters across the continent: Don’t wait for dead bodies in the streets of Harare.”

He said that the government was seeking to provoke protests that it could use as a pretext to declare a state of emergency, which would Mr Mugabe to delay, or possibly even annul, the polls.

He said that he feared for the safety of five Electoral Commission officials arrested on Monday after the ruling Zanu-PF party claimed that the count was fixed against it.

A court has began hearing an MDC application for an order releasing the presidential results.

David Coltart, an MDC senator, said: “There is an eerie silence reminiscent of what followed the referendum in 2000 which Mugabe lost. He used that period of seeming inactivity to lay the groundwork for the farm invasions which followed and I fear that is precisely what is going on now.”

Zimbabwe’s information minister, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, said the opposition claims were untrue and there was “no violence whatsoever”.

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Human rights lawyer warns against Zimbabwe retaliation

By David Coltart | Published April 9, 2008

ABC Australia

By Africa correspondent Andrew Geoghegan
9th March 2008

Zimbabwe Opposition supporters who claim they have been assaulted by
pro-Mugabe militants are being warned not to retaliate.
Human rights lawyer David Coltart, who has just been re-elected as an
Opposition Senator in Zimbabwe, says President Robert Mugabe is trying to
provoke his opponents.

David Coltart spoke to our Africa correspondent Andrew Geoghegan in
Zimbabwe.

DAVID COLTART: I’ve had one report of so-called “Green Bombers” the ZANU-PF
Youth Brigade being deployed into a rural area close to Bulawayo where we
won and they are threatening people.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Is this a sign of things to come, do you think?

DAVID COLTART: It is quite clear that ZANU-PF are planning something. The
silence is ominous. I am reminded of the silence that accompanied the result
in 2000 when Mugabe lost the referendum on the land issue.

There was a period of seemingly inaction followed intensive violence. So
yes, we are very concerned this is a precursor to a violent campaign.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Ten days now since the election and still no result. What
is the Mugabe Government up to?

DAVID COLTART: It really is puzzling now because we have had the House of
Assembly and Senate results announced and although they took a long time,
there is no reason why the presidential results shouldn’t have been
announced.

I am beginning to wonder whether the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission hasn’t,
in fact, found a result in favour of Morgan Tsvangirai and that is why we
have got no result at all. Because there is this deafening silence and so
the silence would tend to indicate that they’ve actually lost.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: How would you describe the feelings of both yourself and
your supporters? Are you losing hope?

DAVID COLTART: I don’t think that we are losing hope because we understand
that we have control of the House of Assembly. We share control of the
Senate. The momentum remains with the Opposition.

We clearly seeing ZANU-PF panicking. Trying to devise a strategy to wriggle
out of this one but I don’t believe that there is any way out for them. So
whilst it is a nervous time, I think ultimately the Opposition must win.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: What can the Opposition now do?

DAVID COLTART: Well, the Opposition has to remain patient for a while
longer. It simply must not go to the streets in my view. That will play
right into the hands of Robert Mugabe.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Is that what he wants?

DAVID COLTART: I’m sure it is what he wants. He’s boasted of having degrees
in violence. Violence is the area that he is comfortable with. That he has
the most experience in. We have to be patient. We have to go to the courts
and try to force this result out of the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission.

Once we’ve got that result, then we will know what to do. If it is a re-run,
well then we must prepare for that. If it is a victory, well, then we must
claim it.

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Senator tells: Why the fight is still ahead for Zimbabweans

By David Coltart | Published April 8, 2008

Crikey
Tuesday, 8 April 2008
Interview by Thomas Hunter:

David Coltart is a senator with the Zimbabwean opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change. He was first elected to office in 2000, before which he worked as a human rights lawyer. He spoke to Crikey from Zimbabwe late yesterday.

Following Mugabe’s corruption of the first vote, if Zimbabweans are asked to vote again, are they more or less likely to vote for him?

I don’t think that we know the answer to that question. I think that people will vote in a fashion consistent with the first round. People are at the ends of their tethers. They are desperate for Mugabe to go. I think the risk for Mugabe is that people may vote even more strongly against him this time.

What’s the mood on the street in Zimbabwe at the moment? Is it one of hope or of despair?

There’s an underlying spirit of despair because of the economy, because of the sense that this man will do anything to retain power. But there is also hope. Despite the rigging we’ve got control of the House of Assembly. We’ve shared the seats in the Senate, and, really, all we need to do now is guard this resolve and win the presidential vote. There is certainly no sense of jubilation in the streets. Life is so tough that people know this is going to be a battle royal. But underlying that, I think that there’s quiet determination and hope, but it’s not spilling out onto the street.

Given the very immediate problems faced by Zimbabweans voters, where does Mugabe’s support come from? Who votes for him?

If you analyse the results, you’ll find that he got virtually all of his support from the rural areas, about four or five of the ten provinces. He lost dismally in the two urban provinces of Harare and Bulawayo, and the two south western provinces. But his support is mostly in those rural provinces where he has handed out a lot of land. More importantly, he controls the flow of information to those areas. He has been successful in conveying to people in those areas that, while there is economic collapse, that collapse is due to western sanctions which have been brought by the Opposition. And finally, he also controls the flow of food to those areas. They know that if they vote against him he won’t supply any more food to them. So it’s through a combination of controlling the information and food that people continue to vote for him.

If a second vote is called, how hard will Mr Mugabe fight to hold onto power? History would suggest he’s not going to be merciful in the pursuit that goal.

In the past he’s used virtually any means to stay in power and there is no indication that he is going to change. The negative signs here are that he has called out war veterans and sent them straight to Harare. He’s said that he wants a recount of 16 seats, which is absolutely absurd given the amount of rigging Zanu PF has employed in the past. Accusing the Opposition of tampering with results is absurd. Also, we’ve seen some of his lieutenants say that they only put 25% effort into the last election and they are now going to “unleash the remaining 75%”, and we all know what that means.

But on the positive, Mugabe is 84 and has been humiliated already just by losing this round. He does have a divided party and he may well come up against a united Opposition. He was 7% down in the vote last time round, which is a considerable amount to make up. In fact, not just 7%. If those who voted for [Zanu PF candidate Simba] Makoni, the third contestant in the presidential election, now vote for Tsvangirai, Mugabe has a deficit of 15% to make up. The only way Mugabe can win the election is if he literally tears up the rule book, uses violence, and declares himself the winner; he will have no legitimacy left. In those circumstances, he will even find that the Southern African Development Community will baulk at endorsing the result.

Send your tips to boss@crikey.com.au,

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Analysis of the election results so far

By David Coltart | Published April 3, 2008

It is with considerable, but not unreserved, optimism that I write today because the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has finally completed the announcement of the House of Assembly results. The final tally is historic because for the first time in 28 years Zanu PF has lost control of the House of Assembly. Of the 210 seats contested Zanu PF won 97 seats, the MDC (Tsvangirai) 99, the MDC (Mutambara) 10 and an independent 1. The remaining 3 seats will require by elections because candidates contesting those seats died (of natural causes) during the election. All 3 are likely to be won by either the MDC (Tsvangirai) or ourselves, the MDC (Mutambara).

The tortuous process implemented by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) this week to announce the results is unacceptable. Four days after the closure of the polls we are nowhere near receiving all of the results. I knew at 4am on Sunday morning, 9 hours after the polls had closed, that I had won the Khumalo Senatorial seat. I was formally declared a duly elected member of the Senate at 12.30pm Sunday by the Constituency Elections Officer, in terms of the Electoral Act. I won by such a wide majority (1944 votes) that there was never any prospect of the result being challenged. Despite that, four days on my election has still not been announced by the ZEC.

The same applies to the all important Presidential race. The Herald curiously appeared to have the results of this race yesterday because it announced confidently that no candidate is likely to get the absolute majority required to win. The MDC (Tsvangirai) responded by announcing its own result, based on original polling station returns, giving Morgan Tsvangirai an absolute majority of 50,3%. I cannot comment on how accurate that is and note that Robyn Dixon writing in the LA Times this morning says that the MDC (Tsvangirai) made an error in calculation and that on their own figures Morgan Tsvangirai’s tally is less than the 50% required.

However whether the final tally in the Presidential race is 49% or 50,3% this is in fact irrelevant because all that lower figure means is that we will have to wait a further 3 weeks to see the end of Robert Mugabe’s rule. It is obvious that all democrats must rally around the candidacy of Morgan Tsvangirai in the run off and if we all do then Robert Mugabe stands to be annihilated and indeed humiliated. Not only will he face a single opponent but all the momentum is now with the MDC (I use that word in the collective sense). Robert Mugabe has already gerrymandered, has already given out all the taxpayers’ tractors and ploughs and has already tried to use food as weapon. In other words he has nothing further to bribe or intimidate the electorate with. They rejected these methods in the general election and there is no doubt they will reject them even more forcefully in the run off.

However I hope that there will now be some sober reflection in the MDC (Tsvangirai). The sad reality is that their failure to agree on a coalition has undermined the opposition’s victory. In at least 8 House of Assembly constituencies we handed victory to Zanu PF by dividing the vote. In several others we only narrowly avoided doing the same again. At the same time many of the opposition’s best MPs such as Gibson Sibanda, Welshman Ncube, Paul Temba Nyathi, and Trudy Stevenson lost and will not be in the new Parliament. We have lost their experience, integrity and expertise – qualities we will sorely need as we seek to rebuild Zimbabwe and to turn Parliament into a genuinely democratic institution.

But most seriously in the Presidential vote the failure to agree the coalition agreement, so painstakingly negotiated by many of us, has opened up the possibility of a rerun which would have been impossible had the 7% of voters who voted for the MDC and the candidate it endorsed, Simba Makoni, voted for Morgan Tsvangirai.

In short the MDC (Tsvangirai) must acknowledge that it has enjoyed a pyrrhic victory in many respects. All is not lost as we can still win the Presidential election in the rerun. However it is now incumbent upon the MDC (Tsvangirai) to build a broad and effective coalition. For this to be achieved it must be prepared to bring into its team some of those who lost in the House of Assembly election and who have so much to offer Zimbabwe. It must also be prepared to accommodate some of the legitimate policy concerns expressed by those of us in the MDC (Mutambara).

Senator David Coltart

Bulawayo
3 April 2008.

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Zimbabwe elections: Leader in waiting

By David Coltart | Published April 3, 2008

The Independent

By Daniel Howden in Harare
Thursday, 3 April 2008

After days of uncertainty, it is official: Robert Mugabe has finally lost control of Zimbabwe’s parliament. How much longer can he resist Morgan Tsvangirai?

It was a moment many believed they would never see. Zimbabwe’s ruling party lost control of parliament yesterday and this time the news was official.

One of the longest electoral teases in history finally delivered as Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission confirmed that the opposition had won control of the House of Assembly. Robert Mugabe’s all-powerful Zanu-Patriotic Front was forced to concede defeat and the only question that remains is whether the 84-year-old will now follow suit and give up the presidency.

The respected opposition senator David Coltart, a long-time adversary of Mr Mugabe, said the “Liberator’s” options were shrinking. “The moment the nation realises that he has lost the House of Assembly is the moment he has lost in the national psyche,” he explained.

The day began with The Herald newspaper, a government mouthpiece, declaring the election was tied and predicting a run-off. This was already a serious concession from a paper that closely reflects the thinking of the Mugabe regime, and had previously predicted a crushing win for him.

In the space of a few dramatic and tense hours in the capital, Harare, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) first announced that its man, Morgan Tsvangirai, had won the presidency according to its figures. Then it was the turn of the painfully prosaic Electoral Commission to confirm that the ruling party had lost control of the parliament.

According to MDC figures, Mr Tsvangirai took 50.3 per cent of the vote in Saturday’s election to Mr Mugabe’s 43.8 per cent, a share which if accepted would hand him a narrow first-round victory. The MDC based its findings on publicly available results posted outside polling stations nationwide and then collated by party officials.

The official results of the presidential vote have still not been released more than four days after polls closed. Already there are serious concerns among independent observers that the commission has been “padding” Zanu-PF’s share.

The incomplete official count for the parliamentary poll showed the MDC had taken 105 seats, a breakaway faction 9 and an independent one in the 210-seat parliament, making it impossible for the ruling party, which gained 94 seats, to win a majority.
The smaller opposition group has confirmed to The Independent that it will help form a majority against Zanu-PF.

For a party and a president accustomed only to winning, the twin announcements came as a huge shock. Bright Matonga, the deputy information minister, was initially speechless on hearing the result, but then attempted to brazen it out: “We don’t have a problem; there is no panic here. That [the vote results] is the wish of the people and we, Zanu-PF, respect that.”

The competing announcements of the day were only the public face of frantic political and diplomatic discussions behind the scenes.

The tale of two Harares is one of five-star hotels and luxurious havens surrounded by disintegrating roads, burnt-out traffic lights and desperate, starving people. The attempts to broker a negotiated settlement between the competing ambitions of the security forces, opposition parties and governing elite take place in the former – a surreal place almost completely divorced from the struggles of ordinary people.

One senior Western diplomat who had been convinced on Tuesday that there would be no run-off was backtracking yesterday. “A run-off is looking more likely,” he conceded.

Last night, calmer voices within the ruling party were attempting to caution against any attempt to brush off the vote and declare a win, warning that the loyalty of the rank-and-file in the army and police cannot be counted on.

Sources close to the back-channel communications between the rival parties said the likeliest solution remained a negotiated settlement that would install a power-sharing government presided over by Mr Tsvangirai.

However, as Zimbabwe’s democratic drama entered its sixth day, no one could be certain that logic would dictate the outcome.

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An anxious wait – The delay in announcing Zimbabwe’s election results worsens an already fraught situation. The country is holding its breath

By David Coltart | Published March 31, 2008

THe Zimbabwean
By Wilf Mbanga

March 31, 2008 6:30 PM | Printable version

I was apprehensive before the poll. I’m apprehensive now. I find it very disturbing that the Zimbabwe electoral commission (ZEC) has chosen to withhold the results of the elections for so long. This is keeping people in suspense and fuelling the rumour mill about the possibility of the vote being manipulated to give Mugabe a win, or to give the army enough time to deploy forces to stage a coup.

Whatever the truth is, it has not been good for the credibility of these elections. Even the African Union observer mission said as much yesterday.

The delay in announcing the results is unprecedented. For all elections since 1980 the results have begun to be announced as they came in – starting a few hours after polling closed and continuing through the night and the next day. The information gap from Saturday night until 7am this morning has given rise to considerable insecurity and wild rumours of rigging, coup plots and uprisings. The state-controlled media resorted to re-screening old soccer matches as its planned schedule was disrupted by the ZEC’s inexplicable silence. The last official footage I saw of the ZEC was SABC coverage on Sunday morning showing the chairman, George Chiweshe, fleeing the Harare hotel where the MDC was announcing the results pinned up at individual polling stations. Journalists were in hot pursuit. He has not been seen since.

I am convinced elaborate rigging has taken place. By 4pm on Monday the ZEC had officially announced results for 38 constituencies – claiming 19 each for the MDC and Zanu-PF and nothing for Makoni or Mutambara so far. The MDC says these results tally with its own in all areas except one, which it will contest.

This careful manipulation – and the waiting for results to fit the neck-and-neck pattern – is painfully obvious.
However, by early this morning the MDC’s polling agents had released results for more than 100 constituencies, using figures posted outside the various polling stations by the returning officers using ZEC stationery.

My own reading of this is that Mugabe and Zanu-PF have been crushed and are reeling from the extent of the MDC landslide in both urban and rural areas. Mugabe really believed his elaborate rigging machine would deliver the votes – as it has done in the past.

The only difference this time is that, as a result of the SADC-initiated negotiations, the poll results for individual areas have been posted outside the polling stations.

I have not been surprised to see, from the results released so far, the breakaway faction of the MDC, led by Arthur Mutambara, has been almost totally wiped out.

Its supporters always claimed strong support in Matabeleland, but haven’t won a single seat in Bulawayo – apart from the popular David Coltart who won his senate seat.

This really means there is now only one MDC again. Many journalists and political observers got this wrong – they believed the split would be a major factor. But the result show that the people of Zimbabwe were never confused by the split. Morgan Tsvangirai has always carried the people with him.

Many also thought Simba Makoni was a spoiler who would split the opposition vote. But all he managed to do was split the Zanu-PF vote – capturing a few seats in rural Matabeleland.

The Mugabe regime did its utmost to control the flow of information throughout the election period. International journalists with the exception of a few organisations like al-Jazeera, were refused accreditation. Observer teams were limited to “friendly” nations and groupings. They are all now looking increasingly embarrassed and starting to murmur.

Hats off to the state broadcasting corporation of South Africa, SABC, they have done a creditable job of covering the elections impartially and thoroughly. Zimbabweans at home as well as throughout the region have been glued to SABC news through the weekend.

In a final show of Zanu-PF deceit and incompetence, news reached me this afternoon that, after having been promised massive salary increases in return for loyalty at the polls, when they checked their bank statements on Monday morning, civil servants found that the promised windfall had not materialised.

I guess this is just one more Zanu-PF disaster for the new administration to sort out!

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Election results round-up

By David Coltart | Published March 30, 2008

The Zimbabwean

Sunday, 30 March 2008 15:03
Election results round-up.

HARARE – Zimbabwe ’s main opposition party has made historic gains in the country’s most hotly contested general election since independence 28 years ago, with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai clinching 67 percent of the total ballots counted so far, according to unofficial results released Monday.

With results from most of the voting districts announced, the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change had won the majority in Zimbabwe ’s cities sweeping the decks by a landslide, officials said Monday.

President Robert Mugabe and his ruling party was a distant third in the voting tallies, with the MDC Tsvangirai leading, followed by independent candidate Simba Makoni and then the geriatric leader. The small independent parties won at most 4 percent of the votes cast.

Such a closely contested race is unprecedented in a country where President Mugabe’s party has ruled virtually unchallenged since 1980.

MDC secretary general Tendai Biti told the fourth press conference held Monday afternoon that the MDC had made significant inroads into ruling party strongholds and retained all major urban centres.

“In Bulawayo we have won all the 12 House of Assembly seats,” Biti told reporters.

In Bulawayo, an area the Mutambara-led MDC has long claimed to be its stronghold, the MDC faction dismally lost, with senior officials such as deputy president Gibson Sibanda and secretary general Welshamn Ncube losing their seats. Infact, all the MDC Mutambara candidates lost, winning only one senate seat.

“We have won five out of six senatorial seats (in Bulawayo ) and the one seat that we have lost we lost it to the esteemed David Coltart (of the Mutambara-led MDC),” Biti said. “And in Harare , counting is still taking place in Harare South. So the remainder of the seats which are 28, we have won all 28 out of 29 seats. We have also won Marondera central, plus the 12 councilors. So Ian Kay is now the honorable member of our honorable House of Assembly.”

After early results were announced by the MDC, which has been barred by the authorities from doing so, some MDC supporters drove through the streets of Harare honking their horns. They gave the open hand salute of the party and shouted the MDC slogan: “Chinja!” In Mutare, police stopped jubilant MDC supporters celebrating “the people’s victory,” according to regional MDC spokesman Pishai Muchauraya.

Biti said the MDC had won almost all the major urban centres were vote counting had been finished.

“We have also won Mbizo and Kwekwe central and that’s confirmed,” Biti said. “But we have lost Zvishavane. Yes, Pearson Mbalekwa has lost in Zvishavane. We are yet to see the damage of the double candidature we had, had on this particular area and in Midlands South”

In Zvishavane, MDC fielded two candidates, Mbalekwa and the hugely popular Mike Akropol, a prominent businessman in the mining town.

Biti proceeded: “In Bindura, we have won Bindura and all the 13 council seats as I stated yesterday. We have won Mkoba. We have won Gweru urban. We have won Masvingo urban. We have all the results I guess of Manicaland. Basically all the results of Masvingo. Basically all the results of Mashonaland West. We have won in all those areas.”

Biti said “our presidential candidate is also winning in all those areas.”

“We have lost Murehwa North to David Parirenyatwa but in that area we have actually won the presidential vote,” Biti added. “So it appears that even in those areas that we appear to be narrowly losing, for instance we have lost by 650 (votes) in Murehwa North, we are still winning the presidential vote. So nothing has happened since we had the last press conference to detract from the fundamental statement we have made thus far on the result of this present election.”

Simba Makoni was said to have made a significant showing in Matabeleland South, where he is said to have clinched 45 percent of the seats there.

But the former Finance minister lost all the seats in his home area of Makoni to the MDC.

The Zimbabwean heard that several high-level ruling party officials and Cabinet ministers lost their seats to MDC candidates.
Among them is Elliot Manyika, Shuvai Mahofa, Walter Mzembi, Patrick Chinamasa, Chen Chimutengwende, Stan Mudenge, Oppah Muchinguri and Ignatius Chombo.

With Zimbabwe ’s economy in shambles, the opposition party was posing the strongest challenge to Mugabe’s party since it led the country to independence from white-minority rule 28 years ago.

The large turnout, estimated in excess of 3 million of the nation’s 5.9 million registered voters, overwhelmed counting stations, leading to delays in confirming results, according to the ZEC.

But the opposition says the ZEC is delaying announcing election results because of Mugabe’s stunning loss.

As all contestants waited for official results to come in, African observers from the Pan African Parliament said in a letter to the electoral commission they had found more than 8,000 non-existent voters registered on empty land in a Harare constituency.
Meanwhile, police were being deployed throughout the country to prevent any possible outbreaks of trouble between the rival parties.

Riot police were sent to the southwestern Harare ghettos, scene of repeated clashes in previous weeks between ruling party militants and opposition supporters. There were no reports of any clashes, and police appealed for calm.

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A Decade of Suffering in Zimbabwe: Economic Collapse and Political Repression under Robert Mugabe

By David Coltart | Published March 27, 2008

Executive Summary

On March 29, 2008, Zimbabwe will hold presidential and parliamentary elections. Few people believe that they will be free and fair or that Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union– Patriotic Front party will fail to return to office.

That is a tragedy, because Mugabe and his cronies are chiefly responsible for an economic meltdown that has turned one of Africa’s most prosperous countries into a country with one of the lowest life expectancies in the world. Since 1994, the average life expectancy in Zimbabwe has fallen from 57 years to 34 years for women and from 54 years to 37 years for men. Some 3,500 Zimbabweans die every week from the combined effects of HIV/AIDS, poverty, and malnutrition. Half a million Zimbabweans may have died already. There is no freedom of speech or assembly in Zimbabwe, and the state has used violence to intimidate and murder its opponents.

At the root of Zimbabwe’s problems is a corrupt political elite that has, with considerable international support, behaved with utter impunity for some two decades. This elite is determined to hang on to power no matter what the consequences, lest it be held to account for the genocide in Matabeleland in the early 1980s and the wholesale looting of Zimbabwe that followed the mismanaged land reform in 2000.

When change comes to Zimbabwe, the nation will have to rediscover the rule of law and the sanctity of persons and property. The public discourse and the economy will have to be reopened. The new government will have to embrace a more limited idea of government and rescind legislation that makes the operation of the private sector next to impossible. Moreover, the new government will have to find a way for the people of Zimbabwe to heal the wounds caused by decades of political violence.

Download full text by clicking this link: A Decade of Suffering in Zimbabwe: Economic Collapse and Political Repression under Robert Mugabe

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Letter to the voters of Khumalo Senatorial Constituency March 2008

By David Coltart | Published March 24, 2008

Dear Voter in the Khumalo Senatorial Constituency,

On the 29th March 2008 you have the chance to change the course of Zimbabwean history for the better. Zimbabwe is in such a terrible state that we do not have the luxury of making a mistake. Another 5 years of Zanu PF rule will completely destroy Zimbabwe.

In football terms Zimbabwe was in the Premier league in 1980. Since then it has had the same coach, Robert Mugabe, and his assistants, Zanu PF. In 28 years Mugabe has taken the Zimbabwean team from the Premier league to the bottom of the 4th social league. Next season we will not even be able to play football because the players have no boots, balls or kit. The goal posts have fallen down and ground is overgrown. A football team would never keep such a coach – if Zimbabwe is to have any future it simply must end Robert Mugabe and Zanu PF’s rule.

Vote for Parliamentarians and Councillors who have Bulawayo at Heart

In this election you will be able to vote for President, Senate, House of Assembly and Bulawayo City Council. I think it is important to separate the decision you have to make between voting for President on the one hand and Parliament and Council on the other hand. Let me first address the issue of voting for Senate, House of Assembly and Council. When you vote for these offices I believe the most important question you have to ask is “Who will best represent my interests and the interests of Bulawayo and Matabeleland in Parliament and in Council?”

In answering this question I think it obvious that Zanu PF MPs and Senators have failed Bulawayo and Matabeleland for the 28 years they have been in power. That effectively leaves you with a choice between the MDC (which I am standing for) and the MDC (Tsvangirai) parties. There is a lot of confusion caused by the split in the MDC and that may make your decision difficult. In such a situation it is important to look back on the record of the different candidates over the last 3 decades because a person’s past gives an insight into how they are likely to represent you in future. The MDC leaders, including Gibson Sibanda, Welshman Ncube, Paul Temba Nyathi, Japhet Ndabeni Ncube, and I are all people with a long and consistent track record of standing up for the rights of Zimbabweans and, importantly, for standing up for the interests of the citizens of Bulawayo and Matabeleland. In contrast the local candidates of the MDC (Tsvangirai), such as its Vice President Thoko Khupe, are relative newcomers who are largely dependant on Morgan Tsvangirai’s profile and support for their own status and position. In other words they are not strong and independent leaders in their own right and cannot be relied upon to put the interests of Bulawayo and Matabeleland first in Parliament. They will always have to be subservient to the interests of the leadership in Harvest House in Harare.

Some have expressed concern that our informal alliance with Simba Makoni will reduce our independence. This will not be the case. Our arrangement is nothing like the 1987 unity accord when Zanu PF swallowed up Zapu. All we are doing is endorsing Simba Makoni’s candidacy for President; we are not joining his political organisation. If I am elected I will be elected as an MDC Senator and will be able to vote in the Senate in accordance with my conscience and our MDC policy. In other words we will be able to vote for or against Makoni’s proposed policies when we so choose. Ironically by choosing not to stand against us in any of the seats in Bulawayo Simba Makoni showed that he was far more respectful of Bulawayo’s local leadership than the MDC (Tsvangirai) was. In this regard please note that there are no Makoni candidates standing against any of us – the two people purporting to stand on the Makoni ticket in this area have not been endorsed by the Makoni campaign and are just seeking to ride on the Makoni wave.

Accordingly if you are looking for strong, independent and consistent leadership in Parliament and Council in the Khumalo Senatorial area then I believe that it is more likely to be provided by our MDC team. I have been a human rights lawyer in Bulawayo for 25 years and have always stood up for the rights of the people of Matabeleland. Likewise Japhet Ndabeni Ncube, House of Assembly candidate for Bulawayo Central, has the outstanding record of standing up against Zanu PF for 7 years since 2001 as Mayor. He fiercely represented the interests of the victims of Murambatsvina and almost single-handedly prevented ZINWA from taking over our water supplies. I have known Yasmine Toffa, our House of Assembly candidate for Bulawayo East, for over 20 years and although a relative newcomer to politics she has always demonstrated in her life a heart for the downtrodden and I have no doubt that the three of us will work well together as a team representing your interests in Parliament without fear or favour. Likewise our five Council candidates, Beauty Kerr (Ward 1), Stephen Mkwananzi (Ward 2), Michaki Ngwenya (Ward 3), Paul Malaba (Ward 4) and Dr. Garry Ferguson (Ward 5) are all outstanding members of our team who will forcefully and effectively represent your interests in the Bulawayo City Council. I do not believe that you can have the same confidence in the candidates put forward by the MDC (Tsvangirai).

Who will beat Mugabe?

There are 3 serious contenders for the office of President, namely Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni. For the reason mentioned above no one in their right mind can possibly vote for the coach that has been in control of the Zimbabwean team for 28 years and has all but ruined it. Accordingly you will have to choose between Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni. In making this decision you need to answer a different question to the one posed above regarding the Parliamentary and Council elections. If Robert Mugabe is the person who has been in charge for 28 years and who is responsible for the destruction of our country it follows that until he goes we will not be able to start rebuilding our lives and our country. Accordingly the most important question we have to ask as we go into the voting booth is: “Who of Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni is most likely to defeat Robert Mugabe?”

In answering this question there is no point in being sentimental because our country has no more time left. It is imperative that we remove Robert Mugabe from office – that is all important because until we do so the horrors Zimbabwe is experiencing will just continue. In answering the question we must consider hard facts, not propaganda, because elections are won by people who manage to get the most ballots in their favour in the box – and in Zimbabwe by people who are best able to protect their ballots so that they are correctly counted. We cannot allow ourselves to be persuaded by propaganda such as exaggerated claims of numbers of people attending rallies – a tactic used by Zanu PF for so long and now being used by the MDC (Tsvangirai) as well.

Accordingly in answering the question we must consider the following facts:

1. Who ever captures the rural the rural vote will win

Approximately 60% of Zimbabweans live in the rural areas. It follows that a Presidential candidate cannot win an election unless he or she manages to get substantial support from rural voters. That is made especially difficult in Zimbabwe because of Zanu PF’s control of food and the flow of information to rural areas. It has been exceptionally difficult for the opposition to make inroads into most rural areas which have effectively been no go areas. One of the most shocking revelations I had as Legal Secretary of the formerly united MDC was when we finally managed to examine the Presidential ballot boxes from the 2002 election in late 2005. When we launched the court challenge against Mugabe’s March 2002 election I had always thought that Mugabe had only won through massive fraud and rigging. What surprised me when we examined the voting materials in 2005 was that although there was some fraud and rigging, and that Morgan Tsvangirai had actually won the election, his margin of victory was relatively small – only about 70,000 votes. In other words what we established was that Mugabe in 2002 did actually get real votes in large numbers in the rural areas of Mashonaland especially. Whilst we all know that if it were not for Zanu PF propaganda and intimidation rural voters would vote differently we should never underestimate the grip that Zanu PF still holds in those same areas where the bulk of Zimbabwean voters live. Whilst Mugabe is undoubtedly now very unpopular throughout the country we have to question whether there is any evidence that Zanu PF’s grip (as opposed to Mugabe’s grip) has loosened in those areas. Likewise we must examine whether there is evidence that Morgan Tsvangirai has managed to penetrate the same areas. Whilst the opposition has made some inroads into Zanu PF’s support base Morgan Tsvangirai cannot be confident that he enjoys widespread support in most rural areas. In contrast there is evidence that Simba Makoni has the ability to secure large numbers of votes from these areas. Not only has he been warmly received in rural areas (where he has focussed his campaign) throughout the country but also there are growing signs of a whispering campaign within Zanu PF itself in support of Makoni. In the week ended the 15th March there were at least two reports in the government controlled press of Cabinet Ministers Obert Mpofu and Webster Shamu complaining to Mugabe about a whispering campaign being conducted against Mugabe in support of Makoni in rural areas. In short I believe that Makoni stands a much better chance of attracting this crucial rural vote than Morgan Tsvangirai does.

2. Hundreds of thousands of opposition voters have left Zimbabwe and will not vote

Since the last Presidential election some 2 million Zimbabweans have left Zimbabwe and are now resident in South Africa, Botswana and elsewhere. Most of them are aged between the age of 20 and 40. Nearly all of them would have voted for the opposition but will not be able to do so because they will not return to Zimbabwe for the election. It is no wonder that Mugabe has done little to stop people from leaving Zimbabwe because he knows that every person who leaves is one less person who will vote against him. This is of course a tragedy but it is also a reality in this election that we simply cannot ignore. This block of people may well have voted for Morgan Tsvangirai but will not be able to do so. It is equally a fact that the vast majority of people who left were urban based people. In other words less people proportionately have left from former Zanu PF strongholds than have left from traditionally opposition strongholds. It follows that proportionately Zanu PF has suffered less from the exodus of people than the opposition has.

3. The October 2005 MDC split will reduce support for Morgan Tsvangirai in Matabeleland

Whatever the reason for the split which occurred in the MDC in October 2005, and whoever is to blame for that split, the fact remains that the split damaged the opposition and has caused confusion and discouragement, which in turn often leads to apathy. That is particularly so in Matabeleland which was a critically important area for Morgan Tsvangirai in 2002. In that election Morgan Tsvangirai secured over 80% of the vote in Bulawayo and slightly less than that in the rural areas of Matabeleland. Tsvangirai will be hard pressed to get anything like that support this election because he does not have a unified team campaigning for him as was the case in 2002. Furthermore because of the weakness of MDC (MT) political structures in every Rural District Council (RDC) area of Matabeleland aside from Binga, Matobo, Gwanda and Beitbridge very few MDC (MT) council candidates were nominated. For example in Mangwe RDC the MDC (MT) did not nominate a single candidate; in Nkayi only 2 candidates out of 30 Wards were nominated and that is typical of most RDCs in Matabeleland. Without councillors at grassroots level campaigning for him Morgan Tsvangirai is going to find it difficult to attract the same votes in these areas as he secured in 2002.

4. The Matibenga issue will reduce support for Morgan Tsvangirai countrywide

In 22 constituencies countrywide there are two MDC (MT) candidates nominated. In the Midlands it is especially bad; in 11 constituencies a faction within the MDC (MT) faction, led by Patrick Kombayi, who is aligned to Lucia Matibenga, the former Chairperson the MDC (MT) Women’s League, has nominated candidates under the banner of the MDC (MT). In the last week that factionalism, if press reports are to be believed, erupted into violence in Shurugwi. In 2002 the Midlands was another key area of support where Morgan Tsvangirai secured a large number of votes. The chaos within the MDC (MT) in Midlands Province will almost certainly damage the support Morgan Tsvangirai has there and lead to a reduction in the numbers of people who would otherwise have voted for him.

My intention is not to depress but these are hard facts we simply cannot ignore. Whilst the MDC (MT) has made some inroads in certain rural areas since 2002 the key questions are what level of penetration into rural areas has been achieved and is that penetration enough to make up for the support Tsvangirai has lost in other areas since 2002, as set out above? I see little evidence that the MDC (MT) has made any significant inroads into Zanu PF’s support base, for example, in the depths of the Mashonaland rural areas. In contrast judging by the reports of Makoni’s rallies in those areas, and the “whispering campaign” going on it appears as if Makoni may well attract large numbers of votes from those former Zanu PF strongholds. What is certain is that Makoni is more likely to receive votes from disaffected rural Zanu PF supporters than Tsvangirai. In addition Makoni has attracted good crowds in all the major urban areas; they have been as big as the crowds attracted by Tsvangirai but when added to his rural support are sufficient to win the election against Mugabe. And so for purely practical reasons I believe that one should vote for Makoni because he stands the best chance of beating Mugabe.

Is it morally right to support Simba Makoni?

Some people, especially those who support Morgan Tsvangirai, argue that it is immoral to support Simba Makoni because of his association with Zanu PF for 3 decades.

The miracle that unfolded in South Africa in the early 1990s occurred because Nelson Mandela and the ANC were prepared to forgive the National Party and leaders like F.W. De Klerk for their role in apartheid. Much of that spirit of forgiveness stemmed from the fact that Mr de Klerk was prepared to humble himself by giving up the trappings of power and to turn away from the evil past of apartheid. The combination of the spirit of forgiveness, on the one hand, and the turning away from evil, on the other, contributed greatly to the healing that took place in South Africa in the 1990s.

Zimbabwe is in a similar place of distress as South Africa was in 1990. Our problems are so grave and seemingly intractable that we will not be able to save our land unless all responsible and patriotic Zimbabweans display a similar spirit of forgiveness and turning away from evil.

It is in that context that these attacks on Simba Makoni are so unfortunate. He is accused of being complicit in the Gukurahundi genocide, the Murambatsvina atrocity and other human rights violations, through his silence.

What is undeniable is that Simba Makoni has been in Zanu PF since independence but that alone does not make him complicit. In my capacity as Director of the Bulawayo Legal Projects Centre in the 1980s and 1990s I played a leading role in the investigation and reporting of the Gukurahundi genocide which culminated in the publication in 1997 of the report “Breaking the Silence” by our parent organisation the Legal Resources Foundation. Simba Makoni was never implicated in the Gukurahundi. Indeed our investigations revealed that it was perpetrated by a relatively small cabal around Robert Mugabe. Many even in the military itself did not know exactly what was planned and what happened.

As regards Murambatsvina the facts are that Makoni resigned, in an unprecedented and brave act, from cabinet in 2002, well before Murambatsvina took place. We also know that the reason he resigned was because he disagreed with a host of Zanu PF policies. We also know that he has fought a lone battle within the Politburo trying to reform Zanu PF from within. In the past year he has spoken out publicly against Zanu PF’s abuses including the shocking torture of Morgan Tsvangirai and other opposition leaders in March last year. He has even visited victims such as Grace Kwinjeh and Sekai Holland in hospital. There is no evidence to show that Makoni supported all these horrors.

We may criticise him for staying within Zanu PF for so long but it is wrong to say that he has agreed with all that has happened in Zimbabwe since independence. Even if I am incorrect in my assessment of Makoni’s past and intentions, what we know for certain now is that he has broken from Zanu PF in an astonishingly brave move. His manifesto indicates that he stands for the right things, including national reconciliation and a new democratic constitution. I believe Makoni wants to heal our land.

In my view this courageous move should be supported, not criticised. What we need in return is for Simba Makoni to show that this is a genuine turning away from Zanu PF’s evil past – but I think he has already demonstrated that through his actions and words during the last few weeks.

What I have no doubt about is that if our friends in the MDC (MT) were to join forces with us Mugabe would not have a hope of winning this election. Sadly though the MDC (MT) appears determined to go it alone. However that fact should not deter us from giving our wholehearted support to Simba Makoni; now is the time for all patriotic Zimbabweans to work together to bring Robert Mugabe’s ruinous and brutal dictatorship to an end.

Isn’t this yet another cunning Mugabe trick?

Some people fear that Makoni’s candidacy is just another trick concocted by Mugabe to perpetuate Zanu PF rule. For reasons I have advanced in other articles I do not believe this to be the case.

Aside from anything else all Makoni has to do, even if comes a distant 3rd in the race, is take less than 10% of Mugabe’s vote (to drop Mugabe below the 50% majority threshold) and he will force Mugabe into a run off in terms of Section 110 of the Electoral Act against Morgan Tsvangirai. This is Mugabe’s worst nightmare because not only will the advantage of a divided opposition be removed but also he will no longer have the same support of Zanu PF Senators, MPs and Councillors whose elections will be over. Zanu PF deliberately organised the so called “harmonized” elections because Mugabe knew that he would have to rely on the self interest of Zanu PF Senators, MPs and Councillors (who obviously want to win themselves) to campaign for him as well. In the run off he cannot be guaranteed that they will support him as they did in the main election. It is inconceivable that Mugabe would have deliberately allowed Makoni to run and so open up the possibility of this happening.

It is equally inconceivable that Dumiso Dabengwa, who suffered so much personally at the hands of Mugabe between 1982 and 1987, would allow himself to be part of a massive trick to perpetuate Mugabe’s rule.

Others fear that this is a trick to perpetuate Zanu PF rule under Makoni and this is where the “Gorbachev Factor” I wrote about last year comes into play. Michael Gorbachev never wanted to destroy the Soviet Union he was President of or the Communist Party he was Secretary General of in the 1980s. However he realised that if he did not reform the Soviet economy he would not be able to hold on to power. As a result he introduced the policies of perestroika and glasnost with the hope that those reforms would maintain his grip on power. However as we all know once he started down that path of reform he was unable to control the process which ran away from him resulting in the break up of the Soviet Union and the loss of power by the Communist Party. We are at a similar stage in Zimbabwe. The centre of power is so weak that the moment any leader attempts to reform any aspect of our economic policy the process will run away from that leader. Accordingly whilst I believe that Makoni is genuine in his stated wish to free Zimbabwe, even if he is not, I think that history shows that he will not be able to stop the inevitable process of reform.

In conclusion I do not think we should have anything to fear in voting for Simba Makoni. On the contrary I believe that he will make a fine President as he is a man of integrity and great capability who can draw Zimbabweans together to find solutions to the enormous problems our nation faces. In addition I think it is practically sensible because it gives us all the best chance of removing Mugabe from office. I hope that you will go out to vote and that you will do all in your power to get every friend, fellow worker and family member to vote. If we all vote in numbers it will virtually impossible for the Mugabe regime to rig big enough to win.

Voting on Saturday the 29th March 2008

Please remember that you will have to vote within the Ward you are registered in. You must establish what Ward you live in. If you need any help in finding out where you are registered please phone our help line 0912 929580.

On Election Day please take your current valid passport of your current valid ID to any of the polling stations in your Ward. Please remember that the Khumalo Senatorial Constituency is made up of two House of Assembly Constituencies, namely Bulawayo East and Central.

Please also try to vote early as there are likely to be long queues and if you arrive late you may not be able to vote at all. Zanu PF has deliberately cut down on the number of urban polling stations to reduce the tidal wave of opposition to Mugabe.

Do come prepared to wait as well. I recommend that you bring water, food, a hat and a chair. But please be determined to vote as we must bring tyranny to and end and we have a real chance to do so on the 29th March 2008.

What you can expect from me if you elect me

If elected I will:

• Continue to fight for a new democratic constitution, the repeal of oppressive legislation and enactment of new progressive, democratic laws

• Press for sound economic policies to be introduced

• Fight for the restoration of the rule of law including respect for property rights and a zero tolerance approach to crime and corruption

• Hold regular report back meetings with constituents

• Develop projects for disadvantaged constituents.

I have enjoyed meeting many of you during this campaign. If elected I look forward to working with you in future to develop Bulawayo, Matabeleland and Zimbabwe into the shining jewels they deserve to be.

Yours sincerely,

David Coltart MP
March 2008

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