Coltart says Zimbabwe media needs transformation

The Zimbabwe Guardian
By Dyke Sithole
Sunday, 04 May 2008

THE newly elected MDC Senator for Khumalo constituency, David Coltart says there is need for the transformation of both the public and private media into critical and analytical institutions of the government of the day and opposition political parties.

Addressing journalists in Bulawayo during the eve of this year’s world Press Freedom celebration, Coltart said the MDC if elected into power during the forthcoming presidential run–offs will allow the public media to criticize its shortcomings.

“If the MDC forms the next government, we will create enabling conditions for the independence of both the public and private media. Allowing the media to be in the hands of government or the ruling party is an unhealthy situation for democracy,” said Coltart who is a lawyer.

Coltart said in the post Mugabe era there is a need for the private media to critically probe opposition parties and the government unlike the present situation where the private media is seen as a mouthpiece for the opposition.

Coltart said the MDC government will push for the amendments of media laws in the country—in view of creating freedom of the press and more players in the industry— which is presently dominated by state controlled media.

The Senator said he strongly believes that foreigners should not be allowed to control the press, but funding of newspapers and radio stations from foreigners should not be restricted.

If elected, Coltart said, the MDC government will put more resources into the training of journalists as well as promote investigative journalism.

Meanwhile the Minister of Information and Publicity Sihkanyiso Ndlovu is expected today to address the journalists on World Press Freedom day.

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Zimbabwe’s opposition divided over boycott of election re-run

The Observer,
Sunday May 4 2008
By Tracy McVeigh and Parker Khesani in Bulawayo

MDC members fail to make a decision as their leader Morgan Tsvangirai remains abroad amid fears for his safety

After a day of top level meetings, Zimbabwe’s main opposition party yesterday failed to make a decision on whether it will take part in presidential run-off elections scheduled for next month.

Observers now fear that there is a fierce dispute within the Movement for Democratic Change – whose leader Morgan Tsvangirai is staying out of the country for his safety – over whether to boycott the second round of voting that was announced on Friday by Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission.

Tsvangirai claimed an outright majority after the polls and the MDC says the results released this weekend were doctored. Election officials announced on Friday that Tsvangirai had beaten Mugabe in the 29 March presidential poll but failed to win the absolute majority necessary to avoid a second ballot.

The MDC has accused the officials of rigging the results, which showed Tsvangirai won 47.9 per cent of the vote to Mugabe’s 43.2 per cent – falling short of the 50 per cent needed to avoid a runoff. The party says Tsvangirai won the election outright with 50.3 per cent of the vote and that Mugabe’s rule is over.

But the MDC has not signalled how it will handle the run-off. Many believe that participating would legitimise Mugabe’s rigging and worsen a volatile situation in the country where 20 of its supporters have been killed, thousands displaced and hundreds are in hiding from marauding ruling party militias.

Yesterday a senior member of the smaller faction of Zimbabwe’s opposition warned Tsvangirai against a boycott, saying it would effectively hand the presidency with some legitimacy to Mugabe. David Coltart, whose party led by Arthur Mutambara announced last week that it would back Tsvangirai if he took part in the run-off, said that the veteran opposition leader had no option but to contest the run-off.

‘My advice is that he should participate in the run-off under protest,’ said Coltart, who is also the MDC secretary for legal affairs. He said that, despite evidence that Zanu-PF was preparing for a violent fightback, the odds were still stacked against Mugabe winning because of the bad economic situation.

The election stand-off has been accompanied by a wave of political violence in rural areas that human rights groups and aid agencies say has killed several people and forced hundreds to flee their homes. Rights groups and the MDC say the violence is aimed at people who voted for the opposition and is designed to intimidate them into voting for Mugabe in a second round.

‘I have information from credible sources, a group of doctors, which says 600 people have been hospitalised throughout the country because of the ongoing violence,’ said Coltart.

There are also signs of widening divisions within the ruling Zanu-PF. Simba Makoni, a former finance minister in Mugabe’s cabinet, stood against him in the 29 March vote and is thought to be garnering support within his old party for a possible government of national unity, a plan ruled out by Tsvangirai.

Mugabe’s waning popularity among the rank and file in his party could work against the 84-year-old leader’s electoral chances, as will the pressing need for action to tackle the inflation rate – now estimated at 200,000 per cent – unemployment, the health crisis and food and energy shortages within Zimbabwe.

Both the police and the civil service are becoming increasingly disaffected.

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Minister disrupts Press function addressed by Senator Coltart

The Standard,
4th May 2008

Information and Publicity Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu last week disrupted a function for journalists celebrating World Press Freedom Day when he took issue with the organisers after they asked him to respond to a keynote address by Senator David Coltart.

Ndlovu, who arrived shortly before the meeting at the Bulawayo Press Club ended, claimed he had been invited as guest speaker and accused the organisers of “disregarding protocol”.

He dashed to the high table, where the speakers were sitting, drawing boos from journalists who had been given the opportunity to ask questions after Coltart of the Arthur Mutambara-led MDC addressed them on the prospects of press freedom in the new political dispensation.

Coltart is the Senator for Khumalo in the city.

‘You cannot invite the government and expect me to just come here and respond to an address by someone else,” Ndlovu protested. “It now looks like I am gate-crashing… the government does not gate-crash. Others gatecrash into government.”
After about 10 minutes, Ndlovu appeared to calm down but only to protest for another five minutes, when he was asked to address the journalists as the patron of the press club.

He walked out after it was explained to him that he had confused the dates as the journalists had invited him to be the main speaker at a function organised by the Zimbabwe Union of Journalists, scheduled for yesterday evening.

Later in the evening, Ndlovu was involved in more drama when a ZBC news crew from Bulawayo was accused of stealing his cellphone during a press conference he held at a hotel.

The phone was reportedly recovered stashed in the wheel of the news crew’s car and the journalists were still being questioned by the police yesterday morning.

ZBC was hosting a party for its employees at the same hotel which was attended by top management, including chief executive officer, Henry Muradzikwa.

The incident happened in full view of journalists and about five police officers were quickly dispatched to deal with the case. But police were not immediately available for comment.

Meanwhile, Coltart told journalists the outcome of the recent elections gave Zimbabweans a rare “window of opportunity” to push through reforms to guarantee freedom of expression and ensure the public media was not used to advance partisan politics.

“The public media has been used as instruments of the governing party for the past four decades and that must now come to an end,” he said. “We need to restructure public institutions such as the ZBC to ensure that it becomes a professional entity.”

He said there was real danger that if checks and balances were not put in place soon after the new government comes into power, the new leaders would fall into the same trap of wanting to control everything.

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In Zimbabwe, population shows restraint

Chicago Tribune
Apr 30, 2008

Suspiciously delayed poll results, army trucks fanning out through villages, police ransacking opposition party offices, and reports of torched huts and broken-limbed civilians _ such has been the ugly face of democracy for nearly a decade in Zimbabwe, and by now most political experts have given up asking whether millions of Zimbabweans will ever reach a violent breaking point.

Indeed, even as fresh reports of government brutality seep out of Zimbabwe in the wake of the still-unresolved March presidential election, there are virtually no reports of unrest on the streets.

A call for a mass protest two weeks ago by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which claims it won the vote, fizzled as usual. Hungry citizens queued obediently for bread in the capital, Harare, last week even as cops rounded up hundreds of opposition activists. And the lone report of a violent backlash _ an alleged attack by opposition members on a rural army barracks on Tuesday _ remains unconfirmed. Human rights activists suspect it may have been planted by the regime of strongman Robert Mugabe to justify further arrests.

This deep well of stoicism _ or, as some critics sneer, passivity _ in Zimbabwe’s victimized population has for years been a source of puzzlement to many Africa analysts, humanitarian workers and foreign journalists, who contrast Zimbabweans’ seemingly inexhaustible acceptance of suffering with deadly explosions of electoral fury elsewhere in Africa, most recently in Kenya.

“This is the single greatest mystery of Zimbabwe,” marveled a Western diplomat in Harare who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “In most other countries there would’ve been riots and violence years ago. But not here. These people are just too nice.”

The latest test of Zimbabweans’ restraint came on Wednesday, when the United Nations Security Council announced that it would not dispatch a special envoy to Zimbabwe to help resolve the election standoff. South Africa and China opposed the measure.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian group Human Rights Watch reported that Mugabe’s security forces were intensifying violent attacks on opposition voters in remote areas. In Manicaland province, the Zimbabwean army was equipping Mugabe-allied “war veterans” with trucks and rifles, the group said.

So far, at least 20 people have been killed nationwide, the opposition says.

Such organized brutality is by no means new.

Mugabe launched similar attacks in 2000 against white farmers and their black workers, as part of the government’s disastrous land reform policy. Since then, there have been two more dubious elections, reports of “rape camps” for opposition activists, and an economic meltdown that has seen 150,000 percent inflation – the highest in the world – 80 percent unemployment, near-starvation and such critical fuel shortages that ox wagons have replaced ambulances in some areas.

Through it all, hapless Zimbabweans – who favor sunny first names like Goodwill, Anyhow, Primrose and Everjoy – have managed to behave, if not like Africa’s Tibetans, then at least like the continent’s peaceful and law-abiding Canadians.
Theories for this abound: Some point to the lack of standing armies or a warrior caste in Zimbabwe’s majority Shona culture. Others cite the debilitating effects of malnutrition and a huge HIV/AIDS epidemic. Still others note that millions of frustrated young people, the natural base for an armed opposition, have simply voted with their feet. Between a quarter and a third of Zimbabwe’s 12 million people have fled political intimidation and economic ruin in their country to seek work in South Africa, Botswana or other neighboring states.

Another explanation is death by a thousand cuts. After eight years of watching their world fall apart in slow motion, Zimbabweans are ground down, deeply demoralized. An oft-repeated word in their conversations is a toneless “hopefully.”

“We’re also too proper – more English than the English,” said Foster Dongozi, the Secretary General of the Zimbabwe Union of Journalists, naming Zimbabwe’s former colonial overlord. “Instead of picking up weapons, we go to court.”

Dongozi wasn’t kidding.

“Mugabe has made a specialty of sham legality, lots of useless laws, phony rules that mean nothing,” he said. “He knows how far to push us. He knows how to distract us with a veneer of normalcy. He knows how to beat us way down, but not so far as to embarrass his African neighbors.”

As an example of calibrated repression, Dongozi told how two Zimbabwean journalists were arrested after the elections on spurious charges of arson; an electrical fire had charred a bus in Harare that day. When that charge didn’t stick, police simply switched the crime to attempted murder, and finally settled on public mischief. The reporters remain in jail.

Meanwhile, the city of Harare was hosting an arts festival this week just as pro-government militants armed with guns and machetes were reported to be fanning out to torch the distant homes and granaries of villagers.

“Right now Mugabe may be desperately trying to provoke us into a low-grade civil war,” said David Coltart, an opposition senator from the western Zimbabwe city of Bulawayo.

“We won’t take the bait. That’s where our people’s tradition of rejecting violence pays off,” Coltart said. “It’s taken us longer to go the Martin Luther King route, but I think we’re close to winning.”

Others weren’t so sure.

Reuters reported Wednesday that Zimbabwean election officials would soon announce that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai had indeed won the election – but without the majority needed to assume power. A runoff would then need to be called, and Mugabe could spool out that process for months.

“This is a regime that won’t ever give up power easily,” said Elinor Sisulu, a Zimbabwean human rights organizer who lives in South Africa. “It’s going to require extraordinary things from us to get it out.”

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Farmer and family currently under seige in Zimbabwe: farm workers are being violently assaulted.

The Zimbabwean
30th April 2008

Wayne Munroe, a farmer in Nymandlovhu (just outside Bulawayo in Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe), has been under siege since early this morning. His property has been encircled by in excess of 100 “war veterans”.

He phoned the police in Nymandlovhu to inform them of the problem and was on the phone to them when 4 “war veterans” entered his office. He immediately told the member in charge that they were there and that a 303 (gun) was being pointed at his chest. He was forced to hang up.

A tussle ensued: Munroe was injured on the hand with the head of an axe blade and he sprayed the attackers with pepper spray enabling him to escape.

He was fired at 4 times, but they missed, and Munroe managed to get to the farm house where his mother and grandmother live.

The war veterans moved into the compound outside the perimeter fence and are busy right now beating the workers.

Munroe’s wife and his two children, aged 4 and 5, are holed up in their own house some 100m away.

One of the workers managed to escape the beating at the compound (which is outside the perimeter fence of both farm houses) and managed to get to Munroe.

He told Munroe that after they finished beating the workers, they were coming for the farmhouses.

Mrs Munroe (Ursula) managed to phone out that she was going to attempt getting to her husband, but has failed because more armed “war veterans” have moved in.

She is currently there now.

Senator David Coltart has repeatedly called Chief Inspector Munyira at Nymandlovhu to go and assist the Munroes.

Coltart was told by the police they would send a detail out but at 3.10pm one – ONE – police officer arrived at the gate of the farm and then left.

To add to the sinister nature of the situation, this morning the regular member in charge and various other officers were replaced at Nymandlovhu police station. This points to the fact that the police were not trusted to carry out this brutal assault.

Yesterday Munroe was warned that there had been a meeting at stops camp in Bulawayo where the decision to invade had been made.

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What Happens If the Opposition Wins?

30 April 2008
By Dumisani O.Nkomo

Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust which a Zimbabwean based information and Advocacy organization.

The electoral impasse and political crisis that is currently dogging Zimbabwe could culminate in a number of scenarios, some being desirable, others undesirable but possible and yet others desirable and possible. It is therefore, necessary for Zimbabweans from all walks of life and through organized political space to begin to interrogate the future before the nation becomes the victim of a tragic fate.

If Tsvangirai won the election, a scenario highly possible but most undesirable and unpalatable for ZANU PF especially the so called hawks in the party, that of the M.D.C Tsvangirai forming the next government, the biggest challenge they would face is to translate this electoral victory to practical access to power.

Hardliners in the Joint Operations Command could resist an M.D.C government taking over. The M.D.C could however exploit support from ordinary members of the army, police, air force and intelligence organs most of whom have been wallowing well below the poverty datum line for years .Tsvangirai would need the support of some crucial senior army officers in order for him to win over the military and it is hoped that the party is engaging critical players in that establishment in order to get the reins of power.

Given this scenario, different opposition players would have to display exceptional political maturity by agreeing to work together in the legislature to facilitate the smooth passage of legislation and policies. The current situation where a minority party, the MDC Mutambara, has the deciding seats in parliament is extremely healthy for democracy. With no party having an absolute majority in parliament, the two factions of the MDC by design or by default would have to develop a symbiotic relationship as they have both intimated recently. This may be undermined by hawks in both factions who may be keen on taking entrenched positions which may not be in the national interest.

A Tsvangirai government may have to fish for extra talent from its rival faction and possible one or two people from the Makoni project .The likes of David Coltart,Moses Mzila Moyo,Dumiso Dabengwa and Makoni himself come to mind .There may be stiff opposition from those who feel they need to be rewarded for fighting and “dying” at the hands of Mugabe .This is to be expected in any transitional process and such healthy conflict should be encouraged so as to conceive a government birthed through robust democratic interface and political intercourse.

It is hoped that Tsvangirai will come up with a small and competent cabinet tasked with meeting short, medium and long term goals .The most urgent issue would be that of formulating a “people driven constitutional dispensation” within a period of 12 to 24 months .Three months would be ideal but impractical given other challenges that the new government would face such as restoring macro economic stability[including the reduction of inflation],restoring investor confidence ,rehabilitating the civil service as well as building the capacity of the state and local government to deliver basic services.
The country will need major shock therapy but the new government will have to ensure that the shock comes with the therapy or else the country could just get a major
‘culture shock’ and react unfavourably to sudden and rushed change.

It is crucial that within the short to medium term the government, in partnership with civil society players and private companies would need to carry out a massive capacity and resource audit. The new government would need to know what resources are at its disposal, its human resource deficits, its material deficits and importantly the kind of skills which are at its disposal both in the country and the diaspora. Concurrent to this should be the much talked about land audit which will ascertain who has land, whether the land has been given to deserving people and its productivity levels.

Politically, structures of violence and coercion such as the youth militia have to be disbanded. The MDC as well, will have to reform and rehabilitate rogue elements within its party who may perpetuate ZANU PF’s legacy of violence .The process of birthing a new constitution should be guaranteed by an act of parliament. An elected constituent assembly with representation from labour ,churches, human rights groups, youth groups, students,farmers,the business sector ,the academia ,professional organizations and other civic groups could be set up to drive the process of a new constitution .The process should be inclusive and non partisan.

The content of the new constitution is another matter all together and is the subject of another article .The other option would be to go the route of a constitutional conference, followed by a people’s referendum .The constitutional conference should involve all major political players, civic groups, churches ,the business community, interest groups and academics. Instead of reinventing the wheel, the process could revolve around the National Constitutional Assembly’s Draft Constitution, the Constitutional Commission’s draft, the drafts from the Thabo Mbeki mediated process [if they are there] and submissions from different civic and political players .The conference could take up to three or so weeks with various working committees working on thematic areas before submitting to plenary.

The draft from the constitutional conference should then be widely debated in all the country’s provinces before the final draft is adopted within three or four months .The draft would then be subjected to a referendum in order to be legitimized or rejected by the populace .The whole process could take about five months .A great deal of resources would be needed for this project but it would help the new government to chart a clear way forward and paint a picture of how Zimbabweans would want to be governed in a new Zimbabwe .The option of fresh elections after a new constitution could still be open but six months would be too short to call for another election. Zimbabweans have already been subjected to, too many elections and this could cause fatigue to both the people and the economy.

Critically the new government would need to set up think tanks and resource groups that would inform the decision making and policy making processes of the new regime .They should be made up of competent individuals from the business sector, civil society and the academia .It must be remembered that the focus of the government should be that of nation building not retribution or replacing ZANU PF with another “gangster government”. The biggest challenge facing the new government would be that of addressing inflation, creating jobs, attracting investment as well as aid and increasing productivity.

Whilst international lines of credit are likely to open and donor funds may pour into Zimbabwe, it must be remembered that the Zimbabwean crisis cannot be solved by pouring money into the country .The country needs to build a new business ,political and work culture whilst at the same time developing institutions that would ensure good governance ,democracy and accountability. A new government should not imagine that millions of donor funds will just fix the country overnight. Rebuilding the country will not be like mending a hole or just replacing the old with the new .The task of rebuilding the economy, governance systems, the social and physical infrastructure is a process that will require sound planning, extensive consultation and investment of both material and human resources.

The spectre of corruption may not disappear overnight but may actually increase if there is a new set of politicians bent on lining their own pockets at the expense of the populace. Professionalism, good work ethics, productivity and hardwork have been replaced by a culture of short cuts, deals and speculation .It will take a long time to build a positive culture and to rebuild the social infrastructure that informs a growing economy and a healthy democracy.

In addition to this, a new government will face the challenges of dealing with past injustices and national healing .The issue of Gukurahundi [the Matabeleland genocide], the marginalization of western regions, Murambatsvina, the land reform programme and the political unrest of 2000 and 2008 will all be issues that need to be wrestled with. These issues are very sensitive and may even affect transitional processes as many people within ZANU PF are living in fear of retribution from the MDC.The country at the same time cannot move forward without addressing issues of past injustices. True healing and reconciliation can only come about after a process of truth telling, forgiveness and restorative justice. In doing this, the new government should be careful about using its position to settle old scores.

The new government should move beyond its election manifesto and formulate tangible, realistic and time framed policies. It should be careful in agenda setting and prioritization lest it becomes a populist government which is all things to all people and thereby becomes detestable to all people because of its inability to fulfill its promises .Tough decisions may have to be made which are not popular but absolutely necessary for restoring economic growth.

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Zimbabwean senator: Prepare for another vote on Mugabe

Crikey.com.au

Tuesday, 29 April 2008
Interview by Thomas Hunter:

David Coltart is a senator with the Zimbabwean opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change. He first spoke to Crikey on 8 April, a week after the election. Three weeks on, Mugabe clings to power, with an announcement expected this week on the result of the crucial Presidential vote.

News reports suggest that there will be announcement this week on the result of the presidential election. Is Zimbabwe likely to learn who won, or will it be a result that demands a run-off election?

I think its more likely that a run-off election will be called. As far back as Wednesday 2 April, the Herald newspaper, which is the Harare-based government controlled daily, ran a story saying that there would be a run-off. They knew the figures as far back as then. The government line ever since then has been that there would be a run-off. So it will be very surprising if we get anything but a run-off. The electoral act says that a run-off must occur within 21 days from the conclusion of the previous election, which we as lawyers believe means from the time of the declaration of the results. The moment the result is announced in the presidential election, which might be this week, then the re-run has to be held within 21 days.

There has been some disturbing imagery flowing out of Zimbabwe in recent weeks. According to the reports accompanying it, voters who supported the opposition in the election are being intimidated by Mugabe supporters to change their vote in any follow-up poll. Does that accord with the information you have?

Yes, its happening primarily in the rural areas in the north and east. There have been very few reports from the south west of the country where I live. Its clearly a military campaign, very well coordinated, very well organised. In the course of the last week, I’ve spoken to doctors, I’ve spoken to journalists, to diplomats and to political colleagues who all report the same thing, namely a systematic campaign targeting villages and areas that voted for Morgan Tsvangirai in the first election… burning houses, breaking bones, torturing people. I have received credible reports of all these activities.

How widespread is the campaign? How many people are in the firing line, so to speak?

Certainly hundreds, possibly thousands of people are in danger. They are being targeted very specifically. Terrifyingly, Zanu-PF knows from the results of the last election – they know exactly how each village voted. The votes were counted at polling stations and in rural areas there are often only a few villages voting at each polling station. So Zanu-PF knows with incredible accuracy how each of these villages voted. They seem to have targeted villages that have never voted against Mugabe and his party before.

What sort of impact did the raids last week on the opposition party’s offices have on you and the opposition more broadly?

Well, first of all, I’m from the smaller MDC faction. There has been a dreadful split in the opposition which we are trying to resolve. The party I represent has not been raided, but of course I have many friends and colleagues in the MDC under Morgan Tsvangirai and we are very distressed by what has happened to them. The raid was obviously designed to intimidate. I understand from friends in the MDC that they not only raided the premises, they broke doors down, they took computers and passports away. They’ve taken confidential minutes and memoranda, and of course they arrested people who had come into Harare to seek refuge. It’s highly intimidatory. It undercuts the MDC’s ability to mobilise and organise in preparation for a re-run. There is absolutely no justification for it. They’ve given us a pretext that they were trying to find information regarding the rigging of the election. If it wasn’t so serious it would be hilarious. Zanu are the masters of rigging, and for them to accuse the MDC of rigging an electoral process which they control from beginning to end is ludicrous. So in one sense, it is depressing, but in another sense it shows how desperate they are.

It seems courageous of you to have a conversation like this with a foreign journalist. How closely does Zanu-PF monitor their opponents’ communications with the world beyond Zimbabwe’s borders?

On this particular phone line I’m more confident that it’s difficult for them track the conversation. My landline, my office phone and my home phone are monitored so I am more cautious about what I say on those lines. But even on those phones, my experience is that the best protection we have is profile. When one gives an interview like this and it’s on the record and one‘s name is used, it does act, perhaps somewhat paradoxically, as protection. They know the international community is watching them. People who are most at risk are people without any profile whatsoever, people who are activists in the field.

Do you feel personally in danger?

Everyone in the opposition is in danger because we are dealing with a regime that is now paranoid, a regime that is desperate and senses that it’s in its final days. As with all dictatorships down through the ages, the closer they get to their end, the more irrational and vicious they become. No-one is immune from their depredations.

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The sweet smell that precedes spring rains

The sweet smell that precedes spring rains
By David Coltart

Zimbabwean winters are dry. Between autumn in April and spring in September it does not rain much and by the time it starts warming up the soil is like powder and the velt golden brown. The baking hot days of September and October eventually yield huge, purple, dark, menacing thunder clouds and magnificent displays of thunder and lightening. The air becomes electric. Shortly before those clouds vent themselves we are blessed with perhaps the most luscious smell in the world; for as rain falls in the distance on the parched earth the mix of that moisture, soil and vegetation emits what can only be described as a sweet smell that utterly pervades the senses. That smell is all the richer and more exciting because of the promise it brings of an end to the long winter drought and because it is accompanied by such threat.

There is a real sense in Zimbabwe that our long winter of oppression is coming to an end. Our nation is exhausted and dry; there is much tension in the air and there are many dark clouds looming. It is also rather terrifying with the ominous sights and sounds of lightening and thunder. But at the same time there is a certain sweet smell starting to capture our attention. I am reminded of one of my favourite poems:

SAY not the struggle naught availeth,
The labour and the wounds are vain,
The enemy faints not, nor faileth,
And as things have been they remain.

If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke conceal’d,
Your comrades chase e’en now the fliers,
And, but for you, possess the field.

For while the tired waves, vainly breaking,
Seem here no painful inch to gain,
Far back, through creeks and inlets making,
Comes silent, flooding in, the main.

And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light;
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly!
But westward, look, the land is bright!

Arthur Hugh Clough: 1819–1861

For all the menace that threatens our country at present if we would but look around us we can see that dawn is starting to break through the gloom. In just the past few weeks it has been confirmed that the combined MDC holds a majority in Parliament, that the two factions of the MDC will work together in the national interest, that the region is starting to lose patience with the Harare regime (demonstrated in the turning away of the Chinese ship carrying arms of war for the regime), that the UN is finally taking an active interest in resolving the crisis and that the regime is in greater disarray than ever. As difficult it has been for Morgan Tsvangirai to campaign wherever he goes he has been mobbed by huge crowds.

In fact it is now clear that Mr Mugabe’s position is completely untenable. Even if he were to rig a rerun of the Presidential election (or brazenly announce himself to be the outright winner) the morning after being inaugurated he will have to deal with hyperinflation (for which he no solution), a divided Zanu PF, a loss of legitimacy in the region, a hugely disaffected civil service and minority support in Parliament. The majority party in Parliament, namely the MDC coalition, can now choose the new Speaker, the Chairs of potentially powerful parliamentary committees and can now block Mr Mugabe’s entire legislative agenda. More importantly it easily now commands the one third necessary to commence impeachment proceedings and arguably also has the two thirds it needs to complete that process. I state this because one of the fictions the government press has put out is that all of the 97 Zanu PF MPs support Mugabe; whilst most do a growing number do not. One needs 140 MPs to impeach a President – in other words all we need is the support of 30 Zanu PF MPs loyal to Simba Makoni to reach that figure. There are many Zanu PF back benchers who now understand that the game is up and that their own long term personal best interests will be best served by respecting the wishes of the electorate.

In other words this is in fact the end of the road for Robert Mugabe and his coterie of corrupt ministers and military commanders. What has confused many people is the grim determination displayed by this coterie over the last few weeks. The violence and brutality has shocked many people. But it should not have come as a surprise because this is how nearly all dictatorships have ended down through the ages. Dictatorships do not become gentler or more rational as they near the end; indeed if anything they become more vicious, more irrational and more paranoid.

I recently watched a fascinating German film called “Downfall” directed by Oliver Hirschbiegel, which is about the last 6 weeks of Hitler’s life in his Berlin bunker. The film is astonishing – perhaps because of the superb casting, outstanding acting and the fact that it is in German one has the feeling that one is watching a documentary. What struck me about Hitler in his final days is that he was increasingly delusional, callous about the German people (in particular Berliners) and that he made decisions which actually accelerated the pace of his demise. Hitler was delusional in that he believed that he could still call on armies that had been totally vanquished. Although some of his subordinates pleaded with him to save the lives of tens of thousands of Berliners, he callously stated that they deserved their fate, as they had “let him down”. He simply did not care about the awful suffering of women and children and about the fact that beautiful buildings and much of Berlin’s history was being destroyed by the Russian onslaught. He made ridiculous decisions – for example he flew one of his top Luftwaffe leaders all the way to Berlin at great risk to his life, just to tell the man that he had been promoted to command the Luftwaffe – even though it hardly had a single operational plane left flying!

It strikes me that Mugabe is in a similar position and is afflicted by the same characteristics. Of course Mugabe does not have Russian tanks 2 blocks away from State house but mentally he is just as embattled as Hitler and he is acting in a similar fashion. He is certainly delusional – he thinks that he has a solution to our economic woes and continuously speaks of the “economic turn around” when it is obvious to all that he has no solution. He thinks he has Africa on his side when it is increasingly obvious that he has become a painful embarrassment to Africa.

The supremely callous way in which the Zimbabwean people have been treated in the last few years, and especially the last 2 months, is strikingly similar to the way Hitler treated Berliners in those closing few weeks of World War II. In 1945 Hitler said “If the war is lost then it is of no concern to me if the people perish in it. I still would not shed a single tear for them; because they did not deserve any better”. It has been increasingly apparent that a similar sentiment governs the thinking of those responsible for the mayhem of the last few months. In the sole pursuit of keeping Robert Mugabe in power we have seen aid cut off by the regime to starving people, the displacement of thousands of poor Zimbabweans whose sole crime was to vote for the MDC in March and the brutalization of hundreds of MDC activists and supporters. At the same time the Reserve Bank printing presses have been allowed full reign causing rampant inflation which in turn is causing untold misery to millions of Zimbabweans – all just to ensure that the regime survives another few months.

But just as Hitler’s crazed decisions hastened the pace of his own demise, so the Harare regime’s actions are undermining any claim to legitimacy they may have hoped for. The delay in announcing the Presidential results alone made it very difficult for the region to defend the regime as has been the case in the past. The shocking campaign of violence and intimidation directed against the MDC and its supporters over the last few weeks has shamed the entire region. And to whom SADC lends its support is pivotal to the outcome of this long hard struggle for democracy and freedom.

The support that SADC has given the regime over the last few years has been one of the most important buttresses of Mugabe’s rule. The struggle for freedom in Zimbabwe has primarily been a psychological battle, not a physical battle. The regime has managed to maintain morale amongst its own supporters through the myth that their battle is Africa’s battle and that because Africa is behind the regime, it will ultimately prevail over the so called neo colonial forces and imperialist’s puppets. But through their own actions the regime has made it increasingly difficult for sympathetic leaders and nations in SADC to continue giving the unqualified support the regime has enjoyed over the last few years. It is increasingly clear that the regime no longer commands majority support from SADC leaders; some SADC leaders who have been staunch supporters of the regime until recently are now at the forefront of those calling for complete compliance with SADC electoral standards in both letter and spirit.

SADC support is the final battle in this long struggle for freedom. The regime has already lost, irretrievably, the support of the Commonwealth, the EU, and other major international institutions. Without SADC support it is only left with the support of pariah states such as North Korea and Iran, which can do little to support the regime in any event. Without SADC recognition of the election result the last shred of legitimacy the regime has enjoyed will be taken away. And without legitimacy and the recognition that comes with it, the regime will not be able to secure the financial and moral support it needs to survive.

Some argue that the regime no longer cares about SADC support and that, for example, the Myanmar regime ruled by a military junta has survived for many years without international recognition. One cannot ignore that example but there are fundamental differences between the two countries which should not give comfort to any of those contemplating a similar military junta in Zimbabwe. Most importantly Myanmar is supported by a huge and financially strong country on its border, namely China. The chaos in Myanmar has never disrupted the economic growth and stability of China, nor is it ever likely to. In fact the same applies to all Myanmar’s neighbours. In contrast the Zimbabwean crisis is now starting to have deleterious consequences for all our neighbours, especially South Africa. Unlike Myanmar we are geographically situated in the heart of Southern Africa and also used to be the 2nd strongest economy in sub Saharan Africa never mind the region. In other words the region simply cannot afford to allow Zimbabwe to collapse totally. Indeed the region already understands that it now has to be proactive in resolving the crisis if it is to prevent the whole of Southern Africa from being blighted. The region cannot afford to allow the emergence of a military junta in its midst; the SADC Charter prohibits recognition of military juntas and aside from that SADC leaders understand that any open or tacit support of a military junta in their midst will seriously undermine the economy of the entire region.

Accordingly there is no way out now for the Harare regime. If they allow a vaguely democratic electoral process they will blown away by an angry electorate. If they bludgeon or rig their way to “victory” no one aside from distant pariah states will endorse the victory; and without that endorsement the pressure growing on the regime will mount rapidly, unrelentingly and incrementally. In short it is now only a matter of time before the Harare regime will be forced to negotiate a smooth transition to a new democratic order.

We for our part must start to think more positively. For far too long we have viewed ourselves as victims rather than victors. We should start behaving as victors; Nelson Mandela after 27 years in prison did not act like a victim. He stood tall and commanded both the moral and psychological heights. We all need to emulate his example. The international community should act likewise – in the short term we need monitors for the election; in the long term we need the international community to stand alongside democratic forces in a positive, proactive way to ensure that the democratic gains of the last few months are consolidated and expanded. Finally Zimbabweans need to be more positive. They should come back to vote but in any event need to start making plans to return home as soon as they are assured that they will be able to survive economically. Victory is ours for the taking, but only if we act decisively, proactively and urgently.

Senator David Coltart
28th April 2008

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Military “Running” the Country

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare
24 April 2008

Ruling party insiders say President Mugabe is effectively hostage to his security chiefs’ demands for continuity.

Officials of the ruling ZANU-PF party say President Robert Mugabe is no longer fully in control, with much of the government’s day-to-day affairs being run by military and security chiefs.

Senior ZANU-PF insiders have told IWPR that Mugabe is now out of touch with what is happening on the ground.

Instead, they said, key decisions were being made by the Joint Operations Command, JOC, which consists of the heads of the army, air force, prison services and intelligence. The JOC, which is chaired by the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, General Constantine Chiwenga, coordinates military and security affairs and many observers believe it carries more real clout than the cabinet.

Their ties with Mugabe date back to the liberation struggle of the Seventies.

The party officials, who did not want to be identified, said decision-making was taken over by military and security chiefs after it became clear that Mugabe had lost the March 29 presidential election to Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC.

It was they who made the controversial decision to stop the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, from releasing the result of the ballot.

According to these sources, Mugabe was considering stepping down but was forced to carry on when the military threatened to take over if he resigned.

“Mugabe was willing to step down. He had actually indicated that he would retire to his rural home and his Borrowdale mansion and hand over power to Tsvangirai, if people voted for him,” said one official. “He even said he was willing to surrender his fate to Tsvangirai, to do whatever he wanted with him.

“However, the army generals and commanders told him that if he did [resign], it would leave them with no other choice but to take over the country. What a lot of people have missed is that Mugabe agreed to avoid a bloody coup by the military. It was better him than the military taking over.”

Chiwenga and retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi, head of the penal service, vowed before the election that they would never salute anyone but him as president. Police chief Augustine Chihuri also said he would not accept an opposition victory.

A day after the election, a crisis meeting of army and security chiefs was held to discuss how to prevent the opposition taking over as it became apparent that Mugabe might have lost to Tsvangirai.

Regime figures do not trust Tsvangirai, fearing that if he came to power he would prosecute senior officials for human rights abuses committed over the years.

Although the ZEC has not announced who won the presidential election, it has said that the MDC won a majority in parliament for the first time ever, defeating ZANU-PF. However, this week the commission has been conducting a recount in 23 constituencies, and there are fears this will provide an opportunity to rig the numbers and reverse the position.

The MDC has accused the security forces of embarking on a campaign of violence and intimidation in the weeks since the election.

In an interview with SW Radio Africa on April 11, Tsvangirai said, “He [Mugabe] has lost control – that is why the military is doing what it is doing, going to interfere with the work of ZEC, arresting ZEC officials, relocating the work of the verification of the presidential ballots to a secret place where our representatives are not present. They have literally overthrown the civilian authority.”

David Coltart, a prominent lawyer and a member of the minority MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara, said, “It’s a coup in the guise of an election.”

Security Minister Didymus Mutasa denied that the military had taken over.

“President Mugabe is still in charge, and that is a fact,” he said. “Those people who are telling you that are wishing for bad things for this country. Wait until the runoff [presidential election]. We will beat them overwhelmingly, and then they will shut up.”

The ZANU-PF officials said security chiefs had called several crisis meetings since the election. At one of them, top military officers gathered two weeks ago at Murombedzi, near Mugabe’s rural home, and told the president they were now in charge.

The military officers, said a ZANU-PF official, laid out a plan by which Mugabe would contest a run-off vote under conditions tipped in his favour by the military taking control of polling stations and counting centres.

The official said Mugabe’s speech on Independence Day on April 18 suggested that he might not be aware of the scale of violence being perpetrated by the army and pro-ZANU-PF militias.

At the independence celebrations, Mugabe paid tribute to Zimbabweans for maintaining peace before, during and after the elections. “Those who are planning violence must stop immediately, otherwise they might be in serious trouble with us,” he said.

According to the MDC, ten of its members have been killed since the election, while dozens of others have been beaten, whipped and threatened by youth militias, war veterans, the military and the security service.

Huts in rural areas have been burnt down, and hundreds of people have been displaced. Victims bearing burns, bruises and serious injuries from some rural areas have been hospitalised in Harare.

The crackdown has come since the JOC took control of the ruling party’s strategy, the electoral system, and internal security measures.

One ZANU-PF member of the Mashonaland Central provincial leadership told IWPR that a meeting held by these local party officials in Bindura agreed unanimously that violence was not the answer. But he added that because the military had taken over, such decisions were not being acted on.

“We have realised in ZANU-PF that things are not good. The problem is that it is now the military that has taken over,” he said.

“It was agreed at that meeting that it was wrong to beat up people. It is not good for the party’s image. But with the army now in charge, all they know is intimidation and violence against opposition supporters. I don’t think that the president really knows what is happening – that people are being tortured and beaten up.”

He said the problem with Mugabe was that he was surrounded by people who did not tell him the truth. The officials said those individuals who could give him honest advice had either died or were no longer in government.

“ZANU-PF is full of new guys or should I say mafikizolos [latecomers] who will not dare say anything. That is why the military can do what it has done,” said the party official. “It is wrong to beat up people, like what is happening in the high-density and rural areas. Violence does not help anyone.”

Nonthando Bhebhe is the pseudonym of a journalist in Zimbabwe.

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Zimbabwe on the Edge – Zimbabwe Election Stalled Aftermath Reflects a Defeated Ruler Unwilling to Relinquish Power

Cutting Edge
By Priya Abraham
April 21st 2008

To listen to Robert Mugabe’s latest rant on western imperialism, one would think history has not shaken the 84-year-old liberator-turned-dictator of Zimbabwe.

“We need to maintain utmost vigilance in the face of vicious British machinations,” he told a crowd of thousands in Harare’s Gwanzura stadium on April 18, Zimbabwe’s Independence Day. Banners at the stadium further warned against “sell-outs” to Britain.

In reality, Mugabe is facing perhaps the strongest challenge to his power since he took over from white minority rule in 1980. In national elections held March 29—and still under dispute–Zimbabwe’s opposition won control of the nation’s 210-seat parliament, winning 107 seats to the ruling party ZANU-PF’s 97.

Mugabe has now completely lost any remaining legitimacy he held in Zimbabwe and the world. Zimbabwe’s tenacious and beleaguered opposition movement has new hope: “Don’t forget we have won,” wrote Sokwanele, a civil rights coalition, as it urged Zimbabweans to continue pressing for peaceful, democratic renewal. Under this new calculus, the question now is how long Zimbabweans will wait for Mugabe to go.

Mugabe is beyond caring what the world thinks, and that attitude rippled even in Washington circles. Just as an example, His ambassador to the United States agreed to speak at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy, on April 15, then blew off the event as reporters and others waited for his arrival. His staff made little effort to inform anyone that he was “out of town.”
In this election, there is no doubt about the victor: in a slight but profound concession, the country’s 9,000 polling stations were each required to post their results outside. Zimbabweans and civic groups traveled from one polling station to another logging the results for themselves. In previous elections, officials tallied—and tampered with–ballots at a central counting station.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, also appears to have won the presidency, though Mugabe refuses to release those election results more than three weeks later. Meanwhile, in an effort to recapture the parliamentary seats his party obviously lost, Mugabe has launched a recount in 23 constituencies where the MDC is particularly popular.

With the knowledge of their victory, MDC’s leaders are beginning to sound like leaders of the U.S. civil rights movement. While Mugabe blustered about imperialist threats on Independence Day, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai told Zimbabweans, “I cannot speak to you on the national media, but I can speak to you from my heart—that freedom comes and your voice and your vote shall be heard.”

Significantly, the election is also uniting the fractured and often weak MDC. Tsvangirai rival Arthur Mutambara, who heads MDC’s splinter faction, has backed Tsvangirai for president and said both camps would act as one body within the parliament. “Under no circumstances will we vote with Robert Mugabe,” he said. “Hell no, never, ever.”

But how long will Zimbabweans hold out for peaceful change? News media continually repeat the grim statistics: Zimbabwe’s inflation is the highest in the world while its life expectancy is the lowest, at 34 for women. One man at an election rally toted a sign with the dry self-description, “Starving billionaire.”

David Coltart is the MDC’s former shadow justice minister and now a leader within the splinter faction, and was elected March 29 as Senator for a southern constituency. On a faint and failing phone connection (lines have been especially faulty since the election), he told me he is skeptical that Zimbabwe will see a popular uprising.

For one thing, Zimbabwe does not have the same “pressure cooker” environment as Kenya, Coltart said, which is surrounded by warring and inhospitable neighbors such as Somalia and Sudan.

Secondly, “Most of our young activists have gone to Zimbabwe and South Africa and so there’s very few people within the country (for) an uprising,” Coltart said. About a quarter of Zimbabwe’s 12 million people have fled across its borders. Zimbabwe’s brutal and drawn out guerrilla war between the white government and black fighters has also left people with “little stomach” to start another armed struggle.

Even an April 15 national strike the opposition called fizzled as riot police took positions and poor Zimbabweans chose to work, desperate for any meager pay. Mugabe has awarded increasing control of the nation’s day-to-day running to his security forces and the dreaded Central Intelligence Organization. In a familiar tactic, security forces and youth squads are now rounding up and beating opposition supporters in a new crackdown, further feeding tensions.

Despite its obvious and clear victory, the fight still is not over for Zimbabwe’s opposition. Instead of finding relief in this election, the MDC is in its usual position of battling Mugabe’s illegal maneuvers. Tsvangirai would like Africa and the world to intervene in Zimbabwe more strongly, as it did when Kenya’s election last year came under violent dispute. In the meantime, Zimbabweans are back to waiting for deliverance from their old and wily liberator.

Priya Abraham is Communications Director at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy.

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