Zimbabwean senator: Prepare for another vote on Mugabe

Crikey.com.au

Tuesday, 29 April 2008
Interview by Thomas Hunter:

David Coltart is a senator with the Zimbabwean opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change. He first spoke to Crikey on 8 April, a week after the election. Three weeks on, Mugabe clings to power, with an announcement expected this week on the result of the crucial Presidential vote.

News reports suggest that there will be announcement this week on the result of the presidential election. Is Zimbabwe likely to learn who won, or will it be a result that demands a run-off election?

I think its more likely that a run-off election will be called. As far back as Wednesday 2 April, the Herald newspaper, which is the Harare-based government controlled daily, ran a story saying that there would be a run-off. They knew the figures as far back as then. The government line ever since then has been that there would be a run-off. So it will be very surprising if we get anything but a run-off. The electoral act says that a run-off must occur within 21 days from the conclusion of the previous election, which we as lawyers believe means from the time of the declaration of the results. The moment the result is announced in the presidential election, which might be this week, then the re-run has to be held within 21 days.

There has been some disturbing imagery flowing out of Zimbabwe in recent weeks. According to the reports accompanying it, voters who supported the opposition in the election are being intimidated by Mugabe supporters to change their vote in any follow-up poll. Does that accord with the information you have?

Yes, its happening primarily in the rural areas in the north and east. There have been very few reports from the south west of the country where I live. Its clearly a military campaign, very well coordinated, very well organised. In the course of the last week, I’ve spoken to doctors, I’ve spoken to journalists, to diplomats and to political colleagues who all report the same thing, namely a systematic campaign targeting villages and areas that voted for Morgan Tsvangirai in the first election… burning houses, breaking bones, torturing people. I have received credible reports of all these activities.

How widespread is the campaign? How many people are in the firing line, so to speak?

Certainly hundreds, possibly thousands of people are in danger. They are being targeted very specifically. Terrifyingly, Zanu-PF knows from the results of the last election – they know exactly how each village voted. The votes were counted at polling stations and in rural areas there are often only a few villages voting at each polling station. So Zanu-PF knows with incredible accuracy how each of these villages voted. They seem to have targeted villages that have never voted against Mugabe and his party before.

What sort of impact did the raids last week on the opposition party’s offices have on you and the opposition more broadly?

Well, first of all, I’m from the smaller MDC faction. There has been a dreadful split in the opposition which we are trying to resolve. The party I represent has not been raided, but of course I have many friends and colleagues in the MDC under Morgan Tsvangirai and we are very distressed by what has happened to them. The raid was obviously designed to intimidate. I understand from friends in the MDC that they not only raided the premises, they broke doors down, they took computers and passports away. They’ve taken confidential minutes and memoranda, and of course they arrested people who had come into Harare to seek refuge. It’s highly intimidatory. It undercuts the MDC’s ability to mobilise and organise in preparation for a re-run. There is absolutely no justification for it. They’ve given us a pretext that they were trying to find information regarding the rigging of the election. If it wasn’t so serious it would be hilarious. Zanu are the masters of rigging, and for them to accuse the MDC of rigging an electoral process which they control from beginning to end is ludicrous. So in one sense, it is depressing, but in another sense it shows how desperate they are.

It seems courageous of you to have a conversation like this with a foreign journalist. How closely does Zanu-PF monitor their opponents’ communications with the world beyond Zimbabwe’s borders?

On this particular phone line I’m more confident that it’s difficult for them track the conversation. My landline, my office phone and my home phone are monitored so I am more cautious about what I say on those lines. But even on those phones, my experience is that the best protection we have is profile. When one gives an interview like this and it’s on the record and one‘s name is used, it does act, perhaps somewhat paradoxically, as protection. They know the international community is watching them. People who are most at risk are people without any profile whatsoever, people who are activists in the field.

Do you feel personally in danger?

Everyone in the opposition is in danger because we are dealing with a regime that is now paranoid, a regime that is desperate and senses that it’s in its final days. As with all dictatorships down through the ages, the closer they get to their end, the more irrational and vicious they become. No-one is immune from their depredations.

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The sweet smell that precedes spring rains

The sweet smell that precedes spring rains
By David Coltart

Zimbabwean winters are dry. Between autumn in April and spring in September it does not rain much and by the time it starts warming up the soil is like powder and the velt golden brown. The baking hot days of September and October eventually yield huge, purple, dark, menacing thunder clouds and magnificent displays of thunder and lightening. The air becomes electric. Shortly before those clouds vent themselves we are blessed with perhaps the most luscious smell in the world; for as rain falls in the distance on the parched earth the mix of that moisture, soil and vegetation emits what can only be described as a sweet smell that utterly pervades the senses. That smell is all the richer and more exciting because of the promise it brings of an end to the long winter drought and because it is accompanied by such threat.

There is a real sense in Zimbabwe that our long winter of oppression is coming to an end. Our nation is exhausted and dry; there is much tension in the air and there are many dark clouds looming. It is also rather terrifying with the ominous sights and sounds of lightening and thunder. But at the same time there is a certain sweet smell starting to capture our attention. I am reminded of one of my favourite poems:

SAY not the struggle naught availeth,
The labour and the wounds are vain,
The enemy faints not, nor faileth,
And as things have been they remain.

If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke conceal’d,
Your comrades chase e’en now the fliers,
And, but for you, possess the field.

For while the tired waves, vainly breaking,
Seem here no painful inch to gain,
Far back, through creeks and inlets making,
Comes silent, flooding in, the main.

And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light;
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly!
But westward, look, the land is bright!

Arthur Hugh Clough: 1819–1861

For all the menace that threatens our country at present if we would but look around us we can see that dawn is starting to break through the gloom. In just the past few weeks it has been confirmed that the combined MDC holds a majority in Parliament, that the two factions of the MDC will work together in the national interest, that the region is starting to lose patience with the Harare regime (demonstrated in the turning away of the Chinese ship carrying arms of war for the regime), that the UN is finally taking an active interest in resolving the crisis and that the regime is in greater disarray than ever. As difficult it has been for Morgan Tsvangirai to campaign wherever he goes he has been mobbed by huge crowds.

In fact it is now clear that Mr Mugabe’s position is completely untenable. Even if he were to rig a rerun of the Presidential election (or brazenly announce himself to be the outright winner) the morning after being inaugurated he will have to deal with hyperinflation (for which he no solution), a divided Zanu PF, a loss of legitimacy in the region, a hugely disaffected civil service and minority support in Parliament. The majority party in Parliament, namely the MDC coalition, can now choose the new Speaker, the Chairs of potentially powerful parliamentary committees and can now block Mr Mugabe’s entire legislative agenda. More importantly it easily now commands the one third necessary to commence impeachment proceedings and arguably also has the two thirds it needs to complete that process. I state this because one of the fictions the government press has put out is that all of the 97 Zanu PF MPs support Mugabe; whilst most do a growing number do not. One needs 140 MPs to impeach a President – in other words all we need is the support of 30 Zanu PF MPs loyal to Simba Makoni to reach that figure. There are many Zanu PF back benchers who now understand that the game is up and that their own long term personal best interests will be best served by respecting the wishes of the electorate.

In other words this is in fact the end of the road for Robert Mugabe and his coterie of corrupt ministers and military commanders. What has confused many people is the grim determination displayed by this coterie over the last few weeks. The violence and brutality has shocked many people. But it should not have come as a surprise because this is how nearly all dictatorships have ended down through the ages. Dictatorships do not become gentler or more rational as they near the end; indeed if anything they become more vicious, more irrational and more paranoid.

I recently watched a fascinating German film called “Downfall” directed by Oliver Hirschbiegel, which is about the last 6 weeks of Hitler’s life in his Berlin bunker. The film is astonishing – perhaps because of the superb casting, outstanding acting and the fact that it is in German one has the feeling that one is watching a documentary. What struck me about Hitler in his final days is that he was increasingly delusional, callous about the German people (in particular Berliners) and that he made decisions which actually accelerated the pace of his demise. Hitler was delusional in that he believed that he could still call on armies that had been totally vanquished. Although some of his subordinates pleaded with him to save the lives of tens of thousands of Berliners, he callously stated that they deserved their fate, as they had “let him down”. He simply did not care about the awful suffering of women and children and about the fact that beautiful buildings and much of Berlin’s history was being destroyed by the Russian onslaught. He made ridiculous decisions – for example he flew one of his top Luftwaffe leaders all the way to Berlin at great risk to his life, just to tell the man that he had been promoted to command the Luftwaffe – even though it hardly had a single operational plane left flying!

It strikes me that Mugabe is in a similar position and is afflicted by the same characteristics. Of course Mugabe does not have Russian tanks 2 blocks away from State house but mentally he is just as embattled as Hitler and he is acting in a similar fashion. He is certainly delusional – he thinks that he has a solution to our economic woes and continuously speaks of the “economic turn around” when it is obvious to all that he has no solution. He thinks he has Africa on his side when it is increasingly obvious that he has become a painful embarrassment to Africa.

The supremely callous way in which the Zimbabwean people have been treated in the last few years, and especially the last 2 months, is strikingly similar to the way Hitler treated Berliners in those closing few weeks of World War II. In 1945 Hitler said “If the war is lost then it is of no concern to me if the people perish in it. I still would not shed a single tear for them; because they did not deserve any better”. It has been increasingly apparent that a similar sentiment governs the thinking of those responsible for the mayhem of the last few months. In the sole pursuit of keeping Robert Mugabe in power we have seen aid cut off by the regime to starving people, the displacement of thousands of poor Zimbabweans whose sole crime was to vote for the MDC in March and the brutalization of hundreds of MDC activists and supporters. At the same time the Reserve Bank printing presses have been allowed full reign causing rampant inflation which in turn is causing untold misery to millions of Zimbabweans – all just to ensure that the regime survives another few months.

But just as Hitler’s crazed decisions hastened the pace of his own demise, so the Harare regime’s actions are undermining any claim to legitimacy they may have hoped for. The delay in announcing the Presidential results alone made it very difficult for the region to defend the regime as has been the case in the past. The shocking campaign of violence and intimidation directed against the MDC and its supporters over the last few weeks has shamed the entire region. And to whom SADC lends its support is pivotal to the outcome of this long hard struggle for democracy and freedom.

The support that SADC has given the regime over the last few years has been one of the most important buttresses of Mugabe’s rule. The struggle for freedom in Zimbabwe has primarily been a psychological battle, not a physical battle. The regime has managed to maintain morale amongst its own supporters through the myth that their battle is Africa’s battle and that because Africa is behind the regime, it will ultimately prevail over the so called neo colonial forces and imperialist’s puppets. But through their own actions the regime has made it increasingly difficult for sympathetic leaders and nations in SADC to continue giving the unqualified support the regime has enjoyed over the last few years. It is increasingly clear that the regime no longer commands majority support from SADC leaders; some SADC leaders who have been staunch supporters of the regime until recently are now at the forefront of those calling for complete compliance with SADC electoral standards in both letter and spirit.

SADC support is the final battle in this long struggle for freedom. The regime has already lost, irretrievably, the support of the Commonwealth, the EU, and other major international institutions. Without SADC support it is only left with the support of pariah states such as North Korea and Iran, which can do little to support the regime in any event. Without SADC recognition of the election result the last shred of legitimacy the regime has enjoyed will be taken away. And without legitimacy and the recognition that comes with it, the regime will not be able to secure the financial and moral support it needs to survive.

Some argue that the regime no longer cares about SADC support and that, for example, the Myanmar regime ruled by a military junta has survived for many years without international recognition. One cannot ignore that example but there are fundamental differences between the two countries which should not give comfort to any of those contemplating a similar military junta in Zimbabwe. Most importantly Myanmar is supported by a huge and financially strong country on its border, namely China. The chaos in Myanmar has never disrupted the economic growth and stability of China, nor is it ever likely to. In fact the same applies to all Myanmar’s neighbours. In contrast the Zimbabwean crisis is now starting to have deleterious consequences for all our neighbours, especially South Africa. Unlike Myanmar we are geographically situated in the heart of Southern Africa and also used to be the 2nd strongest economy in sub Saharan Africa never mind the region. In other words the region simply cannot afford to allow Zimbabwe to collapse totally. Indeed the region already understands that it now has to be proactive in resolving the crisis if it is to prevent the whole of Southern Africa from being blighted. The region cannot afford to allow the emergence of a military junta in its midst; the SADC Charter prohibits recognition of military juntas and aside from that SADC leaders understand that any open or tacit support of a military junta in their midst will seriously undermine the economy of the entire region.

Accordingly there is no way out now for the Harare regime. If they allow a vaguely democratic electoral process they will blown away by an angry electorate. If they bludgeon or rig their way to “victory” no one aside from distant pariah states will endorse the victory; and without that endorsement the pressure growing on the regime will mount rapidly, unrelentingly and incrementally. In short it is now only a matter of time before the Harare regime will be forced to negotiate a smooth transition to a new democratic order.

We for our part must start to think more positively. For far too long we have viewed ourselves as victims rather than victors. We should start behaving as victors; Nelson Mandela after 27 years in prison did not act like a victim. He stood tall and commanded both the moral and psychological heights. We all need to emulate his example. The international community should act likewise – in the short term we need monitors for the election; in the long term we need the international community to stand alongside democratic forces in a positive, proactive way to ensure that the democratic gains of the last few months are consolidated and expanded. Finally Zimbabweans need to be more positive. They should come back to vote but in any event need to start making plans to return home as soon as they are assured that they will be able to survive economically. Victory is ours for the taking, but only if we act decisively, proactively and urgently.

Senator David Coltart
28th April 2008

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Military “Running” the Country

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare
24 April 2008

Ruling party insiders say President Mugabe is effectively hostage to his security chiefs’ demands for continuity.

Officials of the ruling ZANU-PF party say President Robert Mugabe is no longer fully in control, with much of the government’s day-to-day affairs being run by military and security chiefs.

Senior ZANU-PF insiders have told IWPR that Mugabe is now out of touch with what is happening on the ground.

Instead, they said, key decisions were being made by the Joint Operations Command, JOC, which consists of the heads of the army, air force, prison services and intelligence. The JOC, which is chaired by the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, General Constantine Chiwenga, coordinates military and security affairs and many observers believe it carries more real clout than the cabinet.

Their ties with Mugabe date back to the liberation struggle of the Seventies.

The party officials, who did not want to be identified, said decision-making was taken over by military and security chiefs after it became clear that Mugabe had lost the March 29 presidential election to Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC.

It was they who made the controversial decision to stop the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, from releasing the result of the ballot.

According to these sources, Mugabe was considering stepping down but was forced to carry on when the military threatened to take over if he resigned.

“Mugabe was willing to step down. He had actually indicated that he would retire to his rural home and his Borrowdale mansion and hand over power to Tsvangirai, if people voted for him,” said one official. “He even said he was willing to surrender his fate to Tsvangirai, to do whatever he wanted with him.

“However, the army generals and commanders told him that if he did [resign], it would leave them with no other choice but to take over the country. What a lot of people have missed is that Mugabe agreed to avoid a bloody coup by the military. It was better him than the military taking over.”

Chiwenga and retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi, head of the penal service, vowed before the election that they would never salute anyone but him as president. Police chief Augustine Chihuri also said he would not accept an opposition victory.

A day after the election, a crisis meeting of army and security chiefs was held to discuss how to prevent the opposition taking over as it became apparent that Mugabe might have lost to Tsvangirai.

Regime figures do not trust Tsvangirai, fearing that if he came to power he would prosecute senior officials for human rights abuses committed over the years.

Although the ZEC has not announced who won the presidential election, it has said that the MDC won a majority in parliament for the first time ever, defeating ZANU-PF. However, this week the commission has been conducting a recount in 23 constituencies, and there are fears this will provide an opportunity to rig the numbers and reverse the position.

The MDC has accused the security forces of embarking on a campaign of violence and intimidation in the weeks since the election.

In an interview with SW Radio Africa on April 11, Tsvangirai said, “He [Mugabe] has lost control – that is why the military is doing what it is doing, going to interfere with the work of ZEC, arresting ZEC officials, relocating the work of the verification of the presidential ballots to a secret place where our representatives are not present. They have literally overthrown the civilian authority.”

David Coltart, a prominent lawyer and a member of the minority MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara, said, “It’s a coup in the guise of an election.”

Security Minister Didymus Mutasa denied that the military had taken over.

“President Mugabe is still in charge, and that is a fact,” he said. “Those people who are telling you that are wishing for bad things for this country. Wait until the runoff [presidential election]. We will beat them overwhelmingly, and then they will shut up.”

The ZANU-PF officials said security chiefs had called several crisis meetings since the election. At one of them, top military officers gathered two weeks ago at Murombedzi, near Mugabe’s rural home, and told the president they were now in charge.

The military officers, said a ZANU-PF official, laid out a plan by which Mugabe would contest a run-off vote under conditions tipped in his favour by the military taking control of polling stations and counting centres.

The official said Mugabe’s speech on Independence Day on April 18 suggested that he might not be aware of the scale of violence being perpetrated by the army and pro-ZANU-PF militias.

At the independence celebrations, Mugabe paid tribute to Zimbabweans for maintaining peace before, during and after the elections. “Those who are planning violence must stop immediately, otherwise they might be in serious trouble with us,” he said.

According to the MDC, ten of its members have been killed since the election, while dozens of others have been beaten, whipped and threatened by youth militias, war veterans, the military and the security service.

Huts in rural areas have been burnt down, and hundreds of people have been displaced. Victims bearing burns, bruises and serious injuries from some rural areas have been hospitalised in Harare.

The crackdown has come since the JOC took control of the ruling party’s strategy, the electoral system, and internal security measures.

One ZANU-PF member of the Mashonaland Central provincial leadership told IWPR that a meeting held by these local party officials in Bindura agreed unanimously that violence was not the answer. But he added that because the military had taken over, such decisions were not being acted on.

“We have realised in ZANU-PF that things are not good. The problem is that it is now the military that has taken over,” he said.

“It was agreed at that meeting that it was wrong to beat up people. It is not good for the party’s image. But with the army now in charge, all they know is intimidation and violence against opposition supporters. I don’t think that the president really knows what is happening – that people are being tortured and beaten up.”

He said the problem with Mugabe was that he was surrounded by people who did not tell him the truth. The officials said those individuals who could give him honest advice had either died or were no longer in government.

“ZANU-PF is full of new guys or should I say mafikizolos [latecomers] who will not dare say anything. That is why the military can do what it has done,” said the party official. “It is wrong to beat up people, like what is happening in the high-density and rural areas. Violence does not help anyone.”

Nonthando Bhebhe is the pseudonym of a journalist in Zimbabwe.

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Zimbabwe on the Edge – Zimbabwe Election Stalled Aftermath Reflects a Defeated Ruler Unwilling to Relinquish Power

Cutting Edge
By Priya Abraham
April 21st 2008

To listen to Robert Mugabe’s latest rant on western imperialism, one would think history has not shaken the 84-year-old liberator-turned-dictator of Zimbabwe.

“We need to maintain utmost vigilance in the face of vicious British machinations,” he told a crowd of thousands in Harare’s Gwanzura stadium on April 18, Zimbabwe’s Independence Day. Banners at the stadium further warned against “sell-outs” to Britain.

In reality, Mugabe is facing perhaps the strongest challenge to his power since he took over from white minority rule in 1980. In national elections held March 29—and still under dispute–Zimbabwe’s opposition won control of the nation’s 210-seat parliament, winning 107 seats to the ruling party ZANU-PF’s 97.

Mugabe has now completely lost any remaining legitimacy he held in Zimbabwe and the world. Zimbabwe’s tenacious and beleaguered opposition movement has new hope: “Don’t forget we have won,” wrote Sokwanele, a civil rights coalition, as it urged Zimbabweans to continue pressing for peaceful, democratic renewal. Under this new calculus, the question now is how long Zimbabweans will wait for Mugabe to go.

Mugabe is beyond caring what the world thinks, and that attitude rippled even in Washington circles. Just as an example, His ambassador to the United States agreed to speak at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy, on April 15, then blew off the event as reporters and others waited for his arrival. His staff made little effort to inform anyone that he was “out of town.”
In this election, there is no doubt about the victor: in a slight but profound concession, the country’s 9,000 polling stations were each required to post their results outside. Zimbabweans and civic groups traveled from one polling station to another logging the results for themselves. In previous elections, officials tallied—and tampered with–ballots at a central counting station.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, also appears to have won the presidency, though Mugabe refuses to release those election results more than three weeks later. Meanwhile, in an effort to recapture the parliamentary seats his party obviously lost, Mugabe has launched a recount in 23 constituencies where the MDC is particularly popular.

With the knowledge of their victory, MDC’s leaders are beginning to sound like leaders of the U.S. civil rights movement. While Mugabe blustered about imperialist threats on Independence Day, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai told Zimbabweans, “I cannot speak to you on the national media, but I can speak to you from my heart—that freedom comes and your voice and your vote shall be heard.”

Significantly, the election is also uniting the fractured and often weak MDC. Tsvangirai rival Arthur Mutambara, who heads MDC’s splinter faction, has backed Tsvangirai for president and said both camps would act as one body within the parliament. “Under no circumstances will we vote with Robert Mugabe,” he said. “Hell no, never, ever.”

But how long will Zimbabweans hold out for peaceful change? News media continually repeat the grim statistics: Zimbabwe’s inflation is the highest in the world while its life expectancy is the lowest, at 34 for women. One man at an election rally toted a sign with the dry self-description, “Starving billionaire.”

David Coltart is the MDC’s former shadow justice minister and now a leader within the splinter faction, and was elected March 29 as Senator for a southern constituency. On a faint and failing phone connection (lines have been especially faulty since the election), he told me he is skeptical that Zimbabwe will see a popular uprising.

For one thing, Zimbabwe does not have the same “pressure cooker” environment as Kenya, Coltart said, which is surrounded by warring and inhospitable neighbors such as Somalia and Sudan.

Secondly, “Most of our young activists have gone to Zimbabwe and South Africa and so there’s very few people within the country (for) an uprising,” Coltart said. About a quarter of Zimbabwe’s 12 million people have fled across its borders. Zimbabwe’s brutal and drawn out guerrilla war between the white government and black fighters has also left people with “little stomach” to start another armed struggle.

Even an April 15 national strike the opposition called fizzled as riot police took positions and poor Zimbabweans chose to work, desperate for any meager pay. Mugabe has awarded increasing control of the nation’s day-to-day running to his security forces and the dreaded Central Intelligence Organization. In a familiar tactic, security forces and youth squads are now rounding up and beating opposition supporters in a new crackdown, further feeding tensions.

Despite its obvious and clear victory, the fight still is not over for Zimbabwe’s opposition. Instead of finding relief in this election, the MDC is in its usual position of battling Mugabe’s illegal maneuvers. Tsvangirai would like Africa and the world to intervene in Zimbabwe more strongly, as it did when Kenya’s election last year came under violent dispute. In the meantime, Zimbabweans are back to waiting for deliverance from their old and wily liberator.

Priya Abraham is Communications Director at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy.

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Tsvangirai fears capture if he returns to Zimbabwe before poll

The Independent on Sunday
By Raymond Whitaker in Bulawayo
Sunday, 20 April 2008

Zimbabwe’s opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, the presumed front-runner in the presidential election held three weeks ago, has said he intends to remain out of the country for the time being for fear of being attacked or imprisoned.

“It is no use going back to Zimbabwe and become captive,” the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader, who left Zimbabwe 10 days after the poll, told Canada’s The Globe and Mail. “Then you are not effective. What can you do? Do you want a dead hero?”

Mr Tsvangirai, who has spent most time recently in South Africa, said he would return, but first wanted to mobilise international support against President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF government. The ruling party lost its majority in the 29 March election, and independent monitoring groups calculate that the MDC leader fell just short of a first-round victory in the presidential poll, securing between 49 per cent and 50 per cent of the vote.

After an initial period of turmoil, Mr Mugabe and his associates have embarked on a clear strategy of seeking to reverse the result of both polls. The result of the presidential election has been withheld, and MDC officials and supporters in Zanu-PF’s former strongholds have been attacked. Some officials of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) have been arrested, along with members of the country’s largest voluntary poll monitoring group.

Yesterday, the nominally independent ZEC began recounts in 23 seats, 16 of which it had previously declared in favour of the opposition. Zanu-PF would regain its majority if the results in nine seats were reversed in its favour, but lawyers have said the exercise, which is expected to last three days, violates electoral procedures, and the MDC has said it will ignore the outcome. “We reject the outcome of this flawed process,” said MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa. “As far as the MDC is concerned, the first results stand. Anything else will be an illegitimate process.” He said it was “clear” that the ballot boxes had been tampered with in the three weeks since polling.

The recounts were being observed by a South-African led team from the Southern African Development Community, but the opposition has been disillusioned by the feeble stance of the organisation and its designated mediator, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa. Yesterday former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan said the situation in the country was “dangerous” and pointedly urged Africa’s leaders to do more. “The recounts remove any doubts about the ZEC being a partisan organisation,” said David Coltart, an opposition senator and constitutional expert. “If they start announcing that someone else has won a seat, it will be illegal. Only a court can decide that a result should be overturned.”

It was clear, Mr Coltart added, that Zanu-PF had known the presidential result since 2 April, when the government-owned Herald newspaper reported that there would be a run-off. The delay since then had removed any claim to legitimacy that the poll could have given Mr Mugabe. “All this amounts to is a rather clumsy coup disguised as an election.”

The US government and the New York-based group Human Rights Watch is among those that have accused the Mugabe government of violent retaliation since the election. Zanu-PF, it said, was setting up “torture camps to systematically target, beat, and torture people suspected of having voted for the (opposition) MDC in last month’s elections”.

According to dissident policemen who have been briefed on the ruling party’s strategy, about 50 constituencies have been targeted for intimidation. The aim was to have mixed groups of police, army officers, Zanu-PF militants and “war veterans” in place for the snap announcement of a presidential election run-off.

The police said they had been ordered to stand by and watch when party youth militia and “war veterans” attacked opposition supporters, to emphasise to the victims that they would receive no protection. The aim was to displace MDC supporters and officials, so that they would not be able to vote when the second round was called. They had also been told that less strict scrutiny would make it easier to stuff ballot boxes.

Meanwhile, a Chinese ship carrying arms to Zimbabwe which was turned away from South Africa is heading to Angola in hopes of docking there. The ship left South African waters on Friday. It is believed to be carrying three million rounds of AK-47 ammunition, 1,500 rocket-propelled grenades, and an unknown number of mortar rounds. Mozambique’s transport and communications minister told Reuters that Mozambique has been monitoring the ship’s movements since it left South Africa.

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The dire situation in Zimbabwe

The Boston Globe
By Jeff Jacoby
Globe Columnist / April 20, 2008

IN RETROSPECT , it was an exercise in naiveté to have imagined that Zimbabwe’s brutal strongman, Robert Mugabe, would relinquish power just because he had lost an election. It has been more than three weeks since the March 29 vote in which Mugabe’s party, known as ZANU-PF, lost control of the lower house of parliament. Yet official results in the presidential contest between Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have yet to be released.

There isn’t much doubt who won. Public tallies posted at each polling station showed Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change, garnering more than 50 percent of the vote. Were the electoral commission to certify those tallies, it would mean Mugabe’s 28 years at the top had come to an end. But the electoral commission, like everything else in Zimbabwe’s government, is controlled by ZANU-PF. So there will be no official results until the books have been cooked to Mugabe’s satisfaction.

Meanwhile, the regime’s thugs have been busy, staging raids against foreign journalists and opposition-party offices, invading farms owned by white Zimbabweans, terrorizing voters in the countryside. US Ambassador James McGee warned last week that Mugabe’s goon squads were carrying out “threats, beatings, abductions, burning of homes, and even murder” in areas where the opposition party ran strong. A group of Zimbabwean doctors say they have treated more than 150 people who had been beaten since the election. Hundreds more have been detained, and the MDC says at least two of its workers have been murdered.

Not for the first time, Mugabe is viciously stealing an election, and not for the first time, the international community is doing nothing to stop him. Particularly feckless has been South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki. More than any other regional leader, he could exert the leverage to force Mugabe to abide by the voters’ decision. He has refused to do so. A week after the election, Mbeki insisted there was “a hopeful picture” in Zimbabwe; several days later he held a friendly session with Mugabe, then declared to the world that “there is no crisis in Zimbabwe” – merely a “natural process taking place.”

Is it any wonder that Africa is so often thought of as the planet’s most miserable continent?

“By failing to come together to denounce Mugabe unequivocally,” The Economist concluded, Mbeki and other African leaders “have not only prolonged Zimbabwe’s agony; they have damaged the whole of southern Africa, both materially and in terms of Africa’s reputation.”

Rarely has one man’s misrule so horribly wrecked a country. The MDC’s David Coltart, a member of Zimbabwe’s parliament, surveyed some of the data recently in a study for the Cato Institute in Washington:

In a country once known as Africa’s breadbasket, agriculture has been all but destroyed. Manufacturing has collapsed. So has mining – gold production has fallen to its lowest level since 1907, even as world gold prices soar to record highs.

Thanks to ZANU-PF thuggery, 90 percent of foreign tourism to Zimbabwe has evaporated. Insane economic policies have fueled an inflation rate of well over 100,000 percent. Zimbabweans by the millions have fled the country, and 80 percent of those who remain live below the poverty line. Death from disease and malnutrition has exploded. Life expectancy for men in Zimbabwe has fallen to 37 years – 34 years for women.

Mugabe and his loyalists stop at nothing to ensure their grip on power, Coltart writes. As of 2004, an astonishing “90 percent of the MDC members of parliament elected in June 2000 had suffered some human rights violation; 24 percent survived murder attempts, and 42 percent had been tortured.”

The government, meanwhile, is now accusing Tsvangirai of treason. State-run media claims he was plotting with Great Britain to overthrow the regime. But the real menace is Mugabe, who was preparing at week’s end to receive a 77-ton shipment of Chinese arms, including AK-47 rifles, mortars, rocket-propelled grenades, and more than 3 million rounds of ammunition. What is he planning to do with so much additional firepower? That, Zimbabwe’s deputy information minister said, is “none of anybody’s business.”

On Thursday, a South African government spokesman belatedly acknowledged that the situation in Zimbabwe “is dire.” Now maybe he’ll say how much more dire it must get before South Africa – or any other country – finally does something about it.

Jeff Jacoby can be reached at jacoby@globe.com.

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MUGABE’S WANING CLOUT – Military Leaders Making the Decisions in Zimbabwe

Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, April 16, 2008

JOHANNESBURG, April 15 — Zimbabwe’s military has taken day-to-day control of key elements of the national government, limiting the authority of President Robert Mugabe as he struggles to maintain power after 28 years, according to senior government sources, Western diplomats and analysts.

Mugabe’s clout has diminished as military forces deploy widely across Zimbabwe’s countryside and in government agencies. Among those agencies is the electoral commission, which has refused to release results from the March 29 election and would manage a runoff vote, if one is eventually scheduled.

National decision-making increasingly has been consolidated within the Joint Operations Command, a shadowy group consisting of the leaders of the army, air force, police, intelligence agency and prison service — a group Zimbabweans call the “securocrats.”
Although those officials long have been powerful, their authority in government and political matters grew sharply in the days after the election, when it became clear that Mugabe had lost a first round of balloting to longtime opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Several of the securocrats, whose ties to Mugabe date to Zimbabwe’s liberation war in the 1970s, had vowed before the vote never to take orders from Tsvangirai, a former trade union official with no military background.

The shift in power is “an interim measure that is meant to stabilize the country at this critical moment,” said a top government official and Mugabe confidant, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “The arrangement is just temporary because once he wins [a runoff vote], as the army expects him to, he will be back in charge.”

Zimbabwe’s political crisis has shown no sign of abating since the election 17 days ago. All sides agree that Mugabe received fewer votes than Tsvangirai, but they disagree as to whether the opposition candidate won the clear majority needed for a decisive first-round victory.

The opposition party, which asserts that Tsvangirai did win enough votes to become president, has tried various tactics to push Mugabe’s government from office. It sued unsuccessfully to force release of the results. It embraced a runoff, announced a boycott of it, then reversed again and said it would take part under certain conditions. On Tuesday, it called a general strike only to see it fizzle.

Regional diplomatic efforts, including quiet negotiations between the ruling party and the opposition, have failed so far. There are no official presidential election results, no date for a runoff and no clear path for resolving the crisis. That has made questions about who is in charge now all the more pressing. The constitutional mandate for parliament and Mugabe’s cabinet expired at the end of March.

Opposition leaders have claimed for several days that the military has quietly taken control of the government. “It’s a coup in the guise of an election,” said opposition lawmaker David Coltart, who is part of a breakaway faction that does not answer to Tsvangirai.

Mugabe’s security minister, Didymus Mutasa, disputed Coltart’s description, saying, “President Mugabe is still in charge, and that is a fact. Those people who are telling you that are wishing for bad things for this country. Wait until the runoff. We will beat them overwhelmingly, and then they will shut up.”

Yet a Zimbabwean general, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described a meeting between top military officers and Mugabe last week in Murombedzi, about 55 miles southwest of Harare, the capital. After declaring to the president that they were in charge, the officers laid out a plan by which he would contest a runoff vote in conditions made far more favorable by military control of polling stations and central counting centers, the general said.

He added that the military has assigned two senior officers to oversee each of Zimbabwe’s dozens of local government districts. Their job, the general said, is to coordinate political violence by ruling party groups that are intimidating and attacking opposition supporters.

Two people have died since the election. Dozens of others have been beaten, whipped and threatened by ruling party youth militias, opposition activists say. Veterans of Zimbabwe’s liberation war have occupied many of the remaining white-owned commercial farms. As police checkpoints on Zimbabwe’s highways have proliferated, a growing number are monitored by military policemen or officers of Mugabe’s secret police.

Such harsh tactics were common in previous elections, especially in 2000 and 2002; this year’s vote was generally regarded as less violent. The following day, results were posted at individual polling stations, which allowed both the opposition and independent monitors to compile tallies showing the extent of Mugabe’s loss.

This more relaxed atmosphere, which resulted largely from pressure applied by leaders of other countries of southern Africa, changed in the days after the election. Through increasingly belligerent statements, ruling party figures vowed to defeat Tsvangirai in a runoff and challenged the results of several parliamentary seats they lost.

Seven election officials were arrested, as were several journalists covering the election amid intensive restrictions on news gathering.

This crackdown has come since the Joint Operations Command took operational control of the ruling party’s political strategy and the country’s electoral mechanisms and internal security measures, the senior government sources, diplomats and analysts said. The pretext, they said, is a national security threat posed by a possible victory by Tsvangirai, whom officials long have accused of colluding with Zimbabwe’s former colonial ruler, Britain, to help it reassert control.

Former Mugabe information minister Jonathan Moyo, who broke with the president and now is an independent lawmaker, said that when he was in the cabinet from 2000 to 2005, major decisions needed the approval of the securocrats, much as a company’s chief executive officer submits major initiatives to a board of directors.

Since the vote, Moyo said, power has shifted from Mugabe, whom he called “a hostage president.” “His role is as a weakened CEO,” Moyo said. “Still CEO, but one who cannot disagree with his boss.”

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Mugabe’s Money Men

By Roger Bate of America Enterprise Institute
Posted: Wednesday, April 16, 2008
National Review Online

A company with links to a U.S. government contractor is enabling Robert Mugabe despotic rule in Zimbabwe by printing bank notes. In the past month, these increasingly worthless notes have been used to bribe officials in the public sector, army, and other public-security services to curry votes for the Mugabe regime.

In the weeks prior to the March 29 election, with Zimbabwe’s economy collapsing and inflation already running at 100,000 percent, a German company called Giesecke & Devrient (G&D) ran its printing presses at maximum capacity, delivering 432,000 sheets of banknotes to Mugabe’s government each week. The money, equivalent to nearly Z$173 trillion (U.S. $32 million), was then dispersed among targeted voters.

Despite the Mugabe regime’s efforts–illegal as well legal–independent observers say the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the election.

Despite the Mugabe regime’s efforts–illegal as well legal–independent observers say the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the election. But the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has not released the results. The MDC is fearful that Mugabe is maneuvering to steal a potential run-off contest between the top two candidates (which Zimbabwean law requires within 21 days of the original election if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote in the first round), or may be tampering with the original vote to fabricate a majority that will ensure his victory. In the meantime, his security services have banned rallies, beaten up MDC politicians, briefly arrested two foreign journalists, and forbidden any EU or U.S. election observers.

Mugabe has also used currency printed by G&D to pay thugs to squat on some of the few white-owned farms remaining in the country. According to one local I spoke with, Mugabe wants “to continue the myth that Northerners are only interested in Zimbabwe because white farmers are being harmed.” As if to demonstrate the point, at the same time that regional leaders met in Zambia to discuss the crisis, a column in the Herald, Zimbabwe’s state-run newspaper, decried the idea that “African leaders are supposed to do the bidding of the white West. . . . to pressure Zimbabwe to abet the regime change agenda.”

G&D has directly contributed to a meltdown. According to the Sunday Times of London, the company is receiving more than $750,000 a week from the Mugabe regime “for delivering notes at the astonishing rate of Z$170 trillion a week.” Inflation caused by this reckless currency printing has destroyed once-sustainable food markets and stymied business investment, and has contributed to thousands of deaths a week from malnutrition and disease. The black market value of the Zimbabwe dollar has dropped by 70 percent against the U.S. dollar since the mass printing of bank notes began recently (official exchange rates are now irrelevant).

The international community would just like the issue to disappear. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has taken a rhetorically strong stance against the Mugabe regime, and has supported EU travel and banking sanctions against its cronies. But her government says that G&D’s involvement in Zimbabwe is a private matter.

While the U.S. government has placed effective sanctions on the leaders of the regime in Harare, it is still contracting with G&D’s American affiliate to provide security-card and banknote services. (The Treasury Department’s latest contract with the company is worth $381,200). State Department officials would only speak on background, but it appears that there is no official policy or position on G&D. Since G&D America is an independently listed U.S. business doing no business with Zimbabwe, it’s likely that Treasury will take no action against the company. No one at G&D’s offices in Dulles, Virginia, would answer the phone or return our messages.

Western complicity in Mugabe’s despotism is egregious, but African leaders have been far worse. The weekend after an emergency meeting with Mugabe, South African president Thabo Mbeki (who received shelter from Mugabe during the dark days of apartheid), claimed that “there is no crisis in Zimbabwe,” a theme that was repeated at a summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The summit, hosted by Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, started strongly by making the unprecedented move of inviting MDC leader Tsvangirai to attend, widely seen as an acknowledgement that he had won the election. (Mugabe decided not to attend.) But after 12 hours of deliberation, stretching well into the early hours of Sunday, SADC’s delegates scurried away, leaving Zambia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Kabinga Pande, to deliver a thin statement calling for a verification of election results in the presence of candidates and observers. He claimed that both parties had agreed that the election was free and fair and that there was no crisis.

MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti flatly rejects this claim. At a press conference shortly after the summit, he praised the SADC for having “the guts” to hold the meeting at all, but said the crisis was far from resolved. Indeed, the High Court of Zimbabwe has rejected an MDC appeal for the government to publish results within the statutorily required two-week window following the election (the window closed last Friday.) The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s offer to hold a recount of the presidential and parliamentary poll is not consistent with Zimbabwean law, which requires a run-off.

At the SADC Summit, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of Ghana warned the leaders at the summit they had “a grave responsibility to act, not only because of the negative spillover effects on the region, but also to ensure that democracy, human rights and the rule of law are respected.” They can hardly be said to have fulfilled that responsibility yet.

Until they do, G&D can encourage better practices in Zimbabwe by turning off the currency spigot. As reported by SecureID News in 2008, G&D operated in 53 countries and had 2006 revenues totaling almost 1.3 billion euros, about U.S.$1.9 billion. Its Zimbabwe revenue stream is tiny and according to at least one government source, the company is well-respected internationally. But it would do well to protect this reputation by doing the right thing and cutting its ties to Mugabe and his thugs.

Of course, one could argue that G&D might actually be precipitating the collapse of the Mugabe regime by driving up inflation and deepening Zimbabwe’s financial crisis. One Zimbabwean economist suggested that inflation may now be nearing 15,000 percent a month, which is destroying any sustainable agricultural markets on which the poorest depend. Thousands die weekly as a result.
If G&D does not take action, the EU should. They should threaten to deny any future contracts to companies providing direct services to the Mugabe regime. It’s appalling, as MDC Senator David Coltart told me, “that a German company is profiting out of Zimbabweans’ despair,” fueling inflation by printing dollars “which are then used to fund Mugabe’s campaign of repression.”

Roger Bate is a resident fellow at AEI.

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Bulawayo Woman Arrested And Released On Bail

Media Institute of Southern Africa (Windhoek)
PRESS RELEASE
15 April 2008

A 60-year old Bulawayo woman, Margaret Ann Kriel, was arrested in the city on 10 April 2008 on allegations of practicing journalism without accreditation in violation of the repressive Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), as amended in 2007. She was not formally charged and released until 22 April on Z$100 million (approx. US$3,300) bail.

She is to reside at her given address until the end of her case and was ordered to surrender her travel documents to the Clerk of the Criminal Court.

According to reports from Bulawayo, the court heard that between 14 February and 10 April, Kriel, in the company of Robin Lee Kriel and an unidentified person, carried out interviews at various places in the city and surrounding areas.

Robin Lee Kriel and the unidentified person are still at large, the court heard.

The state alleges that they interviewed Mr David Coltart of MDC-Mutambara and Ms Thokozani Khupe of MDC-Tsvangirai.

They allegedly also interviewed members of the public about the outcome of the elections, who they voted for and how they felt about the situation.

The state will seek to prove that they carried out these activities pretending to be accredited journalists when they were not.
In a case involving two South Africans who were acquitted on similar charges on 14 April, the court ruled that the two had no case to answer under the newly amended AIPPA as practicing without accreditation is no longer an offence because journalists can only be prosecuted on the recommendation of a statutory Media Council, which has not yet been established.

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Zim electoral commission ‘brazen liars’ – MDC

The Star – Joahnnesburg
14th April 2008
By Peta Thornycroft

One of the authors of Zimbabwe’s new electoral laws says next week’s scheduled recount of 23 constituencies will be illegal.

Welshman Ncube, one of two Movement for Democratic Change negotiators who spent much of 2007 locked into rewriting some of Zimbabwe’s contentious laws with Zanu-PF during SA-mediated “dialogues”, on Sunday said Zanu-PF complaints were “concoctions after the fact, to be compliant with the law”.

President Robert Mugabe is widely believed to have lost the presidential election by at least 7 percent and has delayed releasing the results for more than two weeks so that the vote can be “massaged”.
However, Judge George Chiweshe, head of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), claimed on Sunday that Zanu-PF candidates in 23 constituencies had lodged complaints within the prescribed 48 hours after the polls closed, and therefore had not broken the Electoral Act.

The results of the parliamentary elections were public by April 1, having been posted outside polling stations and collected by civic and opposition workers.

No statement was issued by the electoral commission about the complaints nor were competing candidates informed. This is the first anyone outside of the commission or Zanu-PF has heard about the complaints.

According to Judge Chiweshe, “we sat as a commission and considered them (the applications).

“I can’t tell you when we did this at this moment we received them, that is why we ordered recounts we didn’t have to tell the world. Why should we? We are not obliged by law to do that.

“Are you calling me a liar?” he wanted to know.

Ncube labelled Chiweshe a “blatant liar and a fraudster”.

“The ZEC is acting in collusion with Zanu-PF and if they think any of us will believe them when they are a gang of fraudsters, then they can go to hell.

“They are such brazen liars and they have had custody of the ballot boxes for more than two weeks. There is no guarantee that they didn’t go back and tamper with the ballot boxes, so the outcome of the recount is a foregone conclusion.”

He said MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai won a clear majority, which was why the results were not released.

MDC founding secretary for legal affairs David Coltart said: “We have asked for proof the complaints were submitted within the 48-hour period.

“The delay between the expiry of the 48-hour period and the writing of the letters of complaint by ZEC is inexplicable, unreasonable.

“The only inference one can draw from the delay is that the commission has connived with Zanu-PF and therefore acted illegally.

“One would have expected the ZEC would immediately have notified all interested parties, but they took nine days to do so.

“This is a brazen subversion of the Electoral Act.”

Last week a senior policeman with at least 20 years’ experience told The Star that ballot boxes from a Midlands constituency, now due for a recount on Saturday, were brought into police headquarters in Harare on the morning of April 5.

He said five or six young recruits took ballots for the presidential election, marked for Tsvangirai, and replaced them with duplicate ballots marked with an X for Mugabe.

Zanu-PF must win back nine seats to regain parliament.

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