Business Day and Bloomberg

23rd January 2018

Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa is urging the country to put behind it one of its most painful episodes: the army’s massacre of as many as 20,000 people from the minority Ndebele ethnic group in the 1980s.

Mnangagwa, who replaced Robert Mugabe as president in November, was minister of state security at the time of the killings that started in 1983, three years after independence from the UK. Opposition leaders, former ruling party members and civil-rights groups say he and other members of his new administration bear some responsibility for the atrocities. Mugabe has previously described the episode as a “moment of madness.”

“We should look into the future,” Mnangagwa said in an interview in his office in the capital, Harare, last week. “The thrust should not be for us, in this new dispensation, to go and engage in the past.”

Mugabe ordered the military action after sporadic attacks on civilians by so-called dissidents said to be linked to the Ndebele-dominated Zimbabwe African People’s Union, the main rival to his ruling Zanu-PF party. His deployment of the North Korean-trained fifth brigade resulted in the intimidation and deaths of thousands of people in the south of the country, according to the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace.

No one has been held accountable for the alleged crimes and no reparations have been paid.

This month, Mnangagwa, who served as Mugabe’s right-hand man for 54 years, signed into law the National Reconciliation Bill, which he said will create a platform where past grievances can be aired. He also admits that the government, led then and now by the Zanu-PF, is partly responsible.

“There is no decision by cabinet which can be attributed to one individual. If there should be responsibility, there should be responsibility of the government of the day,” he said. “It was necessary to bring law and order in the country. I believe that during the process of that in some areas there could have been excesses by the implementing authorities of the time.”

Critics say this acknowledgment doesn’t go far enough.

“These were not ‘excesses’ but crimes against humanity in which Mnangagwa played a critical role. Thirty-four years on, Mnangagwa has a crucial role to heal this festering wound,” said David Coltart, an opposition senator who was Director of the public interest law NGO the Bulawayo Legal Projects Centre which investigated the massacres. “He must acknowledge the atrocities, give an unequivocal apology and re-order the budget to arrange for communal reparation to be made to the affected parties. Any attempt by him to divert responsibility will simply anger victims more.”

Mnangagwa’s challenge

Demands that he address the massacres, known as Gukurahundi — an expression in the language of the majority Shona ethnic group that means the rain that sweeps away the chaff — are an early challenge for Mnangagwa, who’s trying to revive his nation’s decimated economy and end its political isolation. He’ll also face elections within four to five months.

The president, who served in several roles in Mugabe’s cabinet before becoming deputy president, is trying to distance himself from his predecessor by re-engaging with the West and international capital markets.

Mnangagwa fell out with Mugabe’s wife, Grace, and was fired on her urging in early November. He then fled the country after learning that his life was in danger and returned as leader after the military briefly took control a week later.

With a new government, Zimbabwe needs to start afresh, Mnangagwa has said, and move on from the abuses of the past. “We must persuade our communities to work together, to unite and look forward.”

CNN

20th January 2018

Key Zimbabwe opposition leader Roy Bennett died Wednesday in a helicopter crash in a remote area in northeastern New Mexico, authorities said Thursday.

Four other people, including the pilot and co-pilot, also died in the crash, New Mexico State Police said.

One passenger, who suffered serious injuries, is expected to survive, state police said.

Bennett, 60, was listed as a resident of Colorado and South Africa. The other victims were identified as Bennett’s wife, Heather Bennett, 55, of Colorado; pilot Jamie Coleman Dodd, 57, of Trinidad, Colorado; co-pilot Paul Cobb, 67, of Conroe, Texas, and Charles Ryland Burnett, 61, Houston.

The group first flew from Houston on Wednesday evening to the Raton Airport in New Mexico, northeast of Santa Fe, CNN affiliate KOAT reported.

They boarded a helicopter from Raton bound for Folsom, New Mexico, before crashing several miles east of Raton, according to authorities.

One victim managed to call 911, but couldn’t relay the exact location of the crash. Law enforcement responded and began searching for the downed helicopter. But the rugged terrain and limited road access hampered the response, state police said.

Ranchers eventually spotted the helicopter, which was engulfed in flames. The fire charred the victims’ bodies, making it difficult to identify them, authorities said.

Bennett, a founding member of the Movement for Democratic Change, was a charismatic and popular grassroots leader, a party national spokesman said in a statement. He was born in Zimbabwe, but lived in South Africa.

Tributes poured in for Bennett.

“A Zimbabwean friend once said of Roy that he was the only white man whom he would forget was white when together,” Nicole Fritz tweeted.

“Speaks to Roy’s commitment to a democratic Zimbabwe, his care for his communities and his proficiency in indigenous languages which puts so many of us to shame.”

David Coltart, a former Zimbabwean education minister, said he was devastated and at a loss for words.

“They were two of Zimbabwe’s greatest patriots,” he tweeted, referring to Bennett and his wife. ” My condolences are extended to their family & friends.”

Former Zimbabwean finance minister Tendai Biti said his death is a major loss.

“What a blow … to our struggle,” he tweeted. “I can’t believe I will never speak to you again.”

U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe Harry K. Thomas expressed condolences to the Bennetts’ family in a tweet, saying the deaths were “a tragic loss.”

Known as Pachedu, Bennett was also a successful farmer in Chimanimani, a mountainous region in eastern Zimbabwe, said Obert Chaurura Gutu, the party spokesman.

“His work with the local farming communities in Chimanimani district is very well documented and he was also a renowned philanthropist who assisted hundreds of local villagers with school fees for their children and other necessary requirements to look after their families,” Gutu said.

He said Bennett was “a resolute and committed fighter for democratic change in Zimbabwe.”

“This monumental tragedy is a deep wound that will never heal,” Gutu said.

The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating cause of the crash.

The Herald

19th January 2018

Former MDC-T national treasurer Mr Roy Bennett and his wife Heather died in a helicopter crash in Canada yesterday.

Details of circumstances surrounding their death were not immediately clear, but several senior MDC-T officials posted on social media platforms, especially on Facebook, announcing the death. MDC-T spokesperson Mr Obert Gutu confirmed the death last night in a statement.

“The MDC received with utter and complete shock, the news of the tragic passing on of our former national treasurer-general, Roy Bennett and his dear wife Heather in a helicopter crash in Canada on Thursday, January 18, 2018,” said Mr Gutu. He described Mr Bennett as a resolute and committed fighter for democratic change in Zimbabwe.

“A founder member of the MDC, Roy was a charismatic and extremely popular grassroots mobiliser who easily connected with both senior and ordinary members of the party,” said Mr Gutu.

“Roy or Pachedu, as he was affectionately known, was a successful commercial farmer in Chimanimani.” Former MDC Senator, David Coltart posted on Facebook saying: “I have just confirmed from three separate reliable sources that Roy and Heather Bennett have been tragically killed in a helicopter accident in North America.

“I am devastated, they were two of Zimbabwe’s greatest patriots. My condolences are extended to their family and friends.” MDC-T vice president Advocate Nelson Chamisa also posted his condolences.

“I am devastated as I have just received tragic news about Roy Bennett and wife’s involvement in a helicopter accident in Canada,” he wrote. Mr Bennett became Member of Parliament for Chimanimani in 2000 on an MDC ticket

He had a brush with the law in 2004 after he was charged and convicted of contempt of Parliament after he assaulted the then Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa. The incident occurred during a debate in which Minister Chinamasa was pushing for a nine-year mandatory sentence for stock theft.

At the time of his death, Mr Bennett was in self-imposed exile after he skipped the country when law enforcement authorities charged him with “conspiring to acquire arms with a view to disrupting essential services”. At the inception of the inclusive government in 2009, MDC-T leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai nominated Mr Bennett as Deputy Minister of Agriculture, but former President Mugabe declined to swear him, saying he should first be cleared in the courts.

Bulawayo News 24

12th January 2018

The government should not prioritise the construction of a new Parliament at a time the country has limited schools and high unemployment, says former Bulawayo South MP David Coltart.

The Chinese government has pledged to bank roll construction of the new Parliament which will be constructed in Mount Hampden.

“I am fully in support of the Chinese loans for Harare airport and Hwange Power Station the construction of a new Parliament should not be a national priority – we need jobs first,” tweeted Coltart.

“This should be put on hold and the money used to construct schools.”

The current parliament building has become small as the government increased its members to 350. The National Assembly houses 270 while the senate has 80 members.

This increase was a result of an additional 60 seats reserved for women as brought about by the 2013 constitution.

Analysts argue that the nation has too many legislative members and government should reduce the size and merge some constituencies.

As of the year 2000, Zimbabwe had 120 constituencies, now it has 210.

DefenceWeb

13th December 2017

Operation Restore Legacy, which saw the end to Mugabe’s 37 year rule, has broken the log jam in Zimbabwe’s politics. But does it herald a democratic opening and economic recovery?

At the moment, all that is clear is that the military will play a key and expanded role. The military has been highly influential since independence, but its role since it ended Mugabe’s rule will be considerably enlarged.

Earlier this month Zimbabwe’s new President, Emmerson Mnangagwa, gave two of the 22 posts in his cabinet to military men. The man who read the announcement of the military takeover on television, Maj Gen Sibusiso Moyo, was made foreign minister and the Commander of the Air Force, Air Marshal Perrance Shiri, became Land Minister.

Himself a former liberation war military leader, Mnangagwa has had a long and close relationship with the army and is now clearly rewarding the military for paving his path to power. A number of news sites have reported that the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander who led the military takeover, General Constantino Chiwenga, is likely to become Vice President at a ZANU-PF Extraordinary Congress later this month.

The opposition is extremely uneasy about these appointments. Tendai Biti, a prominent opposition leader and former finance minister in the coalition government, was quoted by The Guardian as describing the appointments as a “betrayal”. “We are now dealing with a junta,” he said.

David Coltart, a Senator representing the opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change – Ncube, said, “a tyrant has been replaced, but not the tyranny.”

Coltart views the adoption of a Chinese political model, which would combine economic reforms with tight authoritarian control over any opposition, as the most likely scenario.

To extend the Chinese analogy, there might well be a lesson to be learned from the experience of China. Deng Xiaoping, the leader who implemented the economic reforms that sparked China’s explosive post-1978 growth, was very close to the People’s Liberation Army. This could indicate that firm military support can be key to undertaking economic reforms in authoritarian states.

But the path ahead is not free of complications. Having managed Mugabe’s exit, the army will face certain constraints in the coming phase. Like Deng, Mnangagwa and his soldier friends will have to respond to popular demands for expanded political as well as economic freedoms. Zimbabwe also remains under US and EU sanctions, which although target key individuals, must have the effect of discouraging investment, although poor domestic economic policies play the key role. And Chinese support is not enough in itself to carry the day.

The Zimbabwe armed forces are widely regarded as well-disciplined and professional. They are also expensive. As a percent of GDP, Zimbabwe’s spending on defence is large when compared to that of the region and the world. Zimbabwe spent 2.52 percent of its GDP on defence in 2016, down from 2.75 percent of GDP in 2014. By comparison, in 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa’s regional defence spending as a percent of GDP was 1.25 percent and that of the world 2.2 percent in 2016, according to The Military Balance 2017 published by The International Institute for Strategic Studies. Clearly, if economic growth rises and military spending does not overly rise, this would be a lesser burden.

The 2017 Military Balance estimates the strength of the army at 25 000 and that of the Air Force at 4 000. This is not large given the country’ population size or area. Given Zimbabwe’s fragile financial state, the ZDF is probably battling to maintain both its equipment and its reputation for excellence. The Military Balance 2017 shows the country has a sizable but aging armour, mechanised infantry, and artillery capabilities. China is the main equipment supplier. The army is easily equipped to play a continued role in domestic security, allowing it to always play a background role.

Initial soundings from Mnangagwa were positive for the country’s economic future and a political opening. Yet the record of the army and Mnangagwa in the Gukurahundi massacres in Matabeleland soon after independence and in upholding Mugabe’s rule make for a poor legacy upon which to predict an opening.

Some Generals are known to have been given farms and to hold stakes in the Marange diamond fields. The lifting of the requirement in the indigenisation law that all foreign businesses be 51 percent African owned could well affect the interests of the ruling elite. If there are free and fair elections and the opposition wins and is allowed to form a government, or is in a coalition, the interests of the Generals may well be threatened. How these matters are dealt with could be a complicated, but necessary part of laying the basis for reform.

In addition the military have made it clear that Operation Restore Legacy was about “protecting our revolution,” not ending it. They have also stated that a requirement to be President is having played a role in the liberation struggle. But old comrades are aging and the laws of nature suggest that this will not be possible for long into the future.

There is a lot to suggest that Mnangagwa and his Generals cannot be true reformers. But popular demand for change is so powerful that it may well force their hand, especially in the economic sphere.

In blocking Grace Mugabe’s succession plans, the military may have unintentionally opened a democratic space it might now struggle to close down again. The outpouring of support for the military onto the streets and the days of public jubilation indicated a mass yearning for change. This might have only been visible in the opposition dominated larger urban areas, but it is likely to have been nationwide. Containing public demonstrations in the future could be difficult now that many have experienced the downfall of Mugabe.

If Mnangagwa can achieve even the beginnings of an economic turnaround he could strengthen the ZANU-PF position for a post-Mugabe era. The coup should help bolster the party, particularly if the opposition is divided. The Generals and Mnangawa may not have to resort to old ZANU-PF intimidation tactics to win, which means the country could work toward the lifting of US and European Union sanctions.

However, without free and fair elections next year and even a full accounting of the assets of the ruling elite, Zimbabwe might find it difficult to restore international confidence and re-build the economy. The European Union and the US are at the minimum likely to insist on free and fair elections, and even Zimbabwe’s Chinese allies have not displayed a willingness to give the country a blank cheque to continue the corruption and mismanagement widely associated with ZANU-PF rule.

The Generals must be fully aware of these realities and must know that their position can only diminish if the economy does not recover.

A key question has to be what does the army really want? That may be difficult to answer as the army is probably divided along the lines of senior officers and the other ranks. There has been much reported on how the most senior officers have benefited from Mugabe’s patronage, have high salaries, been given farms, and even stakes in the Marange diamond fields, and holdings in mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The ranks below those of senior officers have taken strain from the collapsing Zimbabwean economy and poor government finances. Last year AFP reported delays in paying soldiers for a second successive month. Economic mismanagement has wiped out savings, brought on hyperinflation and shortages, and collapsed the economy to a fraction of what it was before the onset of disaster. Only the very well connected were able to avoid this sort of maelstrom. Rhetoric that blames sanctions and the actions of former colonizers for Zimbabwe’s misery increasingly falls on deaf ears.

Senior officers could have most to lose from a proper accounting of their assets and the scrapping of Mugabe’s indigenisation programme, while the more junior ranks might have most to gain from a turnaround in the economy. Yet to retain the support of junior ranks, it is likely the Generals know that economic reform is an imperative. An improved economy and government finances would allow more to be spent on defence and greater pride to be given to the army.

The path ahead for Zimbabwe is likely to be full of uncertainty, but significant changes, for some time. It is unclear the extent to which Mnangagwa has a reform agenda. The election which should be held by September 2018 will give a firmer signal of where Mnangagwa wants the economy and political reform to head. Attempts to delay or rig the election are likely to undermine what little confidence ZANU-PF still enjoys.

At 75, Mnangagwa is very old for a new leader, a factor that makes reimposition of Mugabe-style one man rule unlikely. Like China after Mao, Zimbabwe will have learnt a lesson of the dangers of leaders staying in power far too long. Mnangagwa will therefore not have the same authority and longevity of Mugabe.

One possible model to which the Zimbabwean Generals may have given some thought is that of Myanmar. Under the Myanmar Constitution the military shares power with elected representatives. This allowed the military to undertake a transition to democracy in Myanmar.

Zimbabwe has a sound democratic constitution, but a type of Myanmar option might be the final outcome in reality. It is almost certain that should the opposition do well in the elections, the military will insist on taking a role to protect the Generals’ interests.

The Tutu Foundation

12th December 2017

The immigration official at Harare’s Robert Mugabe international airport looked up from examining my passport, his face expressionless. “Why have you come to Zimbabwe?”
“To celebrate,” I replied.

“What will you be celebrating?”

“Zimbabwe’s liberation,” I said, and I held my breath. Journalists without visas have not been welcome in Zimbabwe for most of Robert Mugabe’s autocratic reign.

I need not have worried.

Joined by his colleagues, he burst into laughter, stamped my passport, and waved me through.

At one level at least, Zimbabwe has changed for the better. Despair has been replaced by hope. Views are expressed freely and openly. Optimism hangs in the air, albeit tempered by caution, but nonetheless tangible – almost as tangible as the musty smell of the parched earth as it soaks up the first of the country’s summer rains.

But less than a month since the country’s generals orchestrated the removal of the ageing dictator without the bloodshed and looting associated with coups the world over, concerns and doubts are creeping in.

Will the wave of goodwill be squandered by the new regime, will the optimism turn to cynicism and plans for a fresh start become no more than an illusion? Are we seeing, not the emergence of democracy but the modernisation of a one-party state, the overdue infusion of life into a sclerotic regime led by a despotic old man, increasingly under the influence of an ambitious wife?

Or is the change in mood in itself an assurance that the process of reform will get under way, of a sufficient intensity to prevent back-sliding? On previous visit to Zimbabwe, the land that nurtured me until I was twenty, and on which I have reported for nearly 40 years, my time had been soured by tension and fear, generated by authoritarian regimes, whether white or black.

Would the mood of post-Mugabe Zimbabwe be sustained, would it be radically different?

I set off from London to see and to feel for myself.
*
Together with a photographer colleague, we spent the next week travelling across the country, talking to anyone who was prepared to talk to us: mission priests and teachers, roadside vendors and taxi drivers, civil rights lawyers and political activists, hotel stewards and opposition leaders, students and university – acutely aware that our journey barely touched on a land as vast as it is beautiful.

The journey would take us to the eastern border town of Mutare, picturesque but run-down, nestling in the green hills of the Nyanga mountain range, and on to Catholic mission stations a three-hour drive north of the city, on the border with Mozambique.

I had first visited these missions in 1975, at the peak of Rhodesia’s guerrilla war. Four years later Rhodesia became independent Zimbabwe, as the conflict ended at the Lancaster House conference in London, but not before hundreds of children from the mission schools had sacrificed their careers and crossed the border to join Robert Mugabe’s guerrilla army.

Back to Harare, and on to the town of Chinoyi, north of the capital, driving through countryside that had been home to many of the 4500 white farmers, forcibly evicted from their land by government-backed mobs.

Finally a 40 minute flight to the southern city of Bulawayo, stronghold of the opposition Zapu party and capital of the province of Matabeleland, scene of one of the darkest events in the country’s history – massacre of some 20,000 civilians known as gukurhuundi.

In different ways the journeys touched on many of the issues confronting the new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Will the government agree to a commission of enquiry into the massacre?

How would it handle compensation for the white farmers?

Would the composition of the new cabinet reflect the new Zimbabwe?

And would the 75-year old president, nicknamed the Crocodile, who had loyally served Robert Mugabe for the last 40 years, repent of his past and turn over a new leaf?

In his inauguration address no one was surprised when Mr Mnangagwa ruled out a return of their land to the farmers:

“Dispossession of our ancestral land was the fundamental reason for waging the liberation struggle. It would be a betrayal of the brave men and women who sacrificed their lives …if we reverse the gains we have made in reclaiming our land.”

He failed, however, to address the central concern of commentators who sympathised with the principle of land reform, but who were critical of its implementation. Not only was it conducted violently; many of the farms were allocated to cronies of Robert Mugabe, including the army generals who would later remove him.

Mr Mnangagwa did make one concession:
“My government is committed to compensating the farmers from whom the land was taken.” But the farmers will not be holding their breath. The government has not the funds to cover even modest compensation.

Of far greater concern is the tragedy of Matabeleland.

We spoke to David Coltart, a Bulawayo-based human rights lawyer, and a former senator widely admired for his work as education minster in the government of national unity.

He has no doubt about Mr Mnangagwa’s complicity in the slaughter of civilians in the early 1980’s. At the time, he was head of the country’s Central Intelligence Organisation, and had access to the membership records of Zapu. The impact of the information was devastating. Party officials were singled out, interrogated and summarily executed, effectively destroying Zapu, says Coltart, who has detailed this infamous campaign in his book, The Struggle Continues: 50 years of tyranny in Zimbabwe.

The only way this boil can be lanced, say survivors, is for Mr M to admit his role, to apologise, agree to a public enquiry, and to provide compensation in the form of schools, clinics, boreholes and other community services.

A senior Zapu official was doubtful that such steps would ever be taken. The alternative, he warned, was an embittered, resentful people who account for one in five of Zimbabwe’s population.
*
One obstacle to such an enquiry is the loyalty of the new regime to the former president, who after all bears overall responsibility for the slaughter – just as he does for the state of the country today.

Far from condemning the man, his successor has gone out of his way to praise him: “He remains a father, mentor, comrade in arms and my leader … history will grant him his proper place and accord him his deserved stature as one of the founders and leaders of our nation”.

Mnanagwa continued:
“I have no doubt that over time we will appreciate the solid foundation layed by my predecessor”.

Needless to say, this view is not shared by most Zimbabweans.
*
We were in Bulawayo when the names of the new cabinet were announced, seen as the first sign of the president’s intentions.

Hopes that it would include new blood and fresh talent were dashed. With an average age in the mid-fifties, only one woman, and four ministers with army backgrounds it was seen as business as usual.

It should have come as no surprise. An editorial in the state-controlled daily newspaper, the Herald, had early given advocates of a cabinet of talent short shrift.

“Zanu-PF has a clear mandate” read the headline.

“Why have a government of national unity … when Zanu-PF has a clear mandate”, the paper asked.

“The challenge is to reconcile the interests of the revolution with those of the people who went into the streets…those who have struggled for years to put Zanu-PF in the dustbin of history”.

The message was unmistakeable. The ruling party has no intention of surrendering its grip on power.

Neither the government of Zimbabwe nor the international and bi-lateral donors are comfortable in the relationship now being forged. The former will resent the conditions attached to urgently needed financial support; the latter will surely feel uncomfortable at having to deal with such an unsalubrious group of ministers.

Only China will have no qualms, well ahead of the field as it provided substantial emergency funding.

The outcome is uncertain.

Is a process of genuine reform under way; or are we witnessing the salvaging of Zanu-PF, being rescued by western donors from a crisis of its own making, yet unrepentant and arrogant, intolerant of dissent, the opposition in disarray,keeping the press and the social media on a tight rein.

In the meantime Zimbabweans and donors alike are waiting for a concrete gesture from the president that allows them to believe that the crocodile can change his spots.

Many Zimbabweans express pride at the bloodless nature of the coup. Only in Zimbabwe, they say, could there have been such a peaceful transformation from dictatorship to a celebration that brought hundreds of thousands of joyful dancing citizens onto the streets, embracing soldiers as they celebrated.

But there are two sides to this coin.

Zimbabwe appears to have a culture of deference to authority, and a veneration of age.

What else explains the full page advertisements in the country’s newspapers, extoling the virtues of their new leader, whose brutal past is well known, and who must surely share the responsibility for the sorry state of Zimbabwe today?

“We pledge our unwavering support and absolute dedication … your wise counsel and visionary leadership … your astute quality,” read one especially obsequious endorsement. Not since the days of Ian Smith, the former prime minister hero worshipped by white Rhodesians, has there been such a fawning welcome to the man in office.
*
Meanwhile images and scenes from the journey recur like flashbacks.

Workers painting road signs in the farming town of Rusape, on a Sunday; grass growing in Mutare’s main street; the collonaded, wood panelled, century-old Bulawayo Club; women selling mushrooms by the roadside in the Nyanga national park; the polite treatment at a roadblock north of Mutare; guti (mist) clearing as the sun rose over the resort of Troutbeck …

But most vivid, most memorable, are the students at the mission where we spent a night. Confident youngsters, smartly turned out, free from the horror of war that had destroyed the lives of an earlier generation, expressing a determination to succeed in their chosen professions.

Today a cabal of old men run Zimbabwe. If they have the good sense not to cling to power, the country’s future is in safe hands.