Financial Gazette
28 July 2011
By Dumisani Nkomo
MATABELELAND is the traditional seat of opposition politics in post-independent Zimbabwe and this has become increasingly evident in the past 11 years with the advent of the Movement for Dem-ocratic Change (MDC).
Pertinently as elections continue to beckon within the next 36 months or so, the battle for the heart, mind and soul of Matabe-leland has begun.
The electoral landscape and political architecture has somehow changed as there are now four political parties that are vying for the control of the region’s vote. While in 2008 the playing field featured ZANU-PF, MDC-T and MDC, the revived ZAPU has join-ed in the fray making for an appe-tising, gruelling and potentially confusing electoral contest in the south western part of the country.
The electoral and political plot has thickened with the emergence of the controversial Mthwakazi Liberation Front whose nature as a political party or movement is still the subject of debate, contestation, speculation, conjecture and debate.
I will attempt to analyse the chances of these five major players in the forthcoming elections in the context of the political turf and territory in Matabeleland and against the backdrop of various socio-economic, political and cultural factors.
These factors will also be considered in the broader context of the demographics of the electorate in Matabeleland and the broader politics of Zimbabwe. This article will specifically focus on the MDC-T while subsequent articles will focus on ZAPU and the MDC formation led by Professor Welshman Ncube.
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T)
The MDC-T is arguably the country’s most popular party and continues to pose the biggest threat to ZANU-PF. Its candidate Morgan Richard Tsvangirai became the first man in Zimbabwe to defeat President Robert Mugabe in an election. The party won all the House of Assembly seats on offer in Bulawayo in the 2008 elections and lost only one senate seat to MDC stalwart, David Coltart. The party also won a significant number of seats in Matabeleland North although ZANU-PF and the MDC also won several seats in the province. In Matabeleland South the party managed to grab a number of parliamentary seats but failed to unseat ZANU-PF from its traditional strongholds in Beitbri-dge, Insiza North and Gwanda South. It also failed to land any seats in the vast Bulilima and Mangwe constituencies, Insiza South and Umzingwane .It maintained a tight grip over the two constituencies in Matobo.
The party faces a number of challenges in the forthcoming elections and has to deal with various structural, strategic and ideological issues including but not limited to the following:
1. The party has failed to clearly locate itself in the Matabeleland marginalisation discourse which currently is the biggest issue in the region. Its detractors have accused it of being indifferent and at best pedestrian in issues relating to the marginalisation of Matabeleland whether real or imaged.
2. Linked to this is the party’s ambiguity and ambivalence about the emotive issue of Gukurahundi. This is not withstanding the gallant attempts by deputy spokesperson of the party, Tabitha Khumalo, who moved a motion in Parliament on the issue a couple of years ago and Nkulumane legislator, Thamsanqa Mahlangu’s efforts to debate the issue of the de-industrialisation of Bulawayo in Parliament. These efforts are largely unknown in the public domain. However, the party is perceived as lagging far behind the other political players excluding the “suicide prone” politicians in ZANU-PF in issues affecting the region.
3.The party’s leadership is at the level of the top six – such as president, vice president, secretary general,treasurer general, spokesperson and chairperson – is thought and perceived not to adequately reflect the country’s delicate ethnic political matrix with Thokozani Khuphe and Lovemore Moyo being the only key politicians from the region. The party’s argument that it has accommodated other competing ethnic interests from the country’s other provinces may be valid but will not be acceptable in Matabe-leland. To their credit albeit at the expense of democracy a number of other politicians from Matabeleland were then incorporated into the national executive .
There remains a fear however, that if the party wins the next elections it will not have adequate representation and leadership form Matabeleland and thus perpetuate the ZANU-PF legacy of economic “Apartheid” of Matabeleland .
The party also took a battering after the provincial elections in Bulawayo, which were marred by internal conflict, accusations of violence, witch-hunting and overt factionalism. Associations with violence and hooliganism, traditionally reserved and exclusive to ZANU-PF, will haunt the party for years to come. The MDC- T will need to improve the quality of candidates that it will field in the next elections if it entertains chan-ces of winning anything in Matabeleland.
Critically the party‘s greatest strength could potentially be its strongest weakness. The MDC-T major strength is its strategic positioning as the only party capable of defeating ZANU-PF in an election and even in the former ruling party’s strongholds in Mashonaland. This in itself holds tremendous appeal for the electorate who may not care who or what they vote for as long as it is not ZANU-PF. To this end the electorate may reject even the most able and capable candidates from MDC and ZAPU and opt for whoever the MDC- T candidate is because that vote may in the mind of the voter represent and symbolize the removal of ZANU-PF and its leader.
However, this very fact may lead to the demise of the party as a lot of people in Matabeleland are no longer looking at Mugabe and ZANU-PF but are also asking that all important question “What is in it for us as Matabeleland?” If the party entertains chances of making inroads against its opponents it has to:
1. Develop clear positions on the development or under-development of Matabeleland
2. Display visibility and aggression in issues such as Gukurahundi and how it should be addressed.
3. Improve the quality of its candidates
4. At a national level display ideological maturity and clarity by proving that they are not just about “Mugabe/ZANU-PF must go party” but they have the capacity to govern competently
5. Ensure that the local authorities under their control display the aforesaid qualities of good governance. Trends in Victoria Falls, Harare, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, amongst other places are worrying as similarities with ZANU-PF, have been noted
6. Develop political maturity when dealing with ZAPU and MDC so as to consolidate gains and build on gains in the next elections
7. An alliance with any of the other two parties (ZAPU) and MDC is an attractive possibility but remains contentious because the only people who may lose out on positions are from Matabeleland as this is where the other two main parties are also strong
If the party fails to assert and position itself in issues affecting the region it may find itself being politically irrelevant in the next elections .The MDC-T is likely to do well in Bulawayo which has a highly cosmopolitan population but may struggle in some areas in Matabeleland North and South.
They face a stiff challenge from the rejuvenated MDC under Welshman Ncube which has positioned itself clearly on Matabeleland issues. They will also face stiff competition from Dumiso Dabengwa’s ZAPU. ZANU-PF may be a negligible factor in the next elections largely due to the irrelevance of the party’s Matabeleland leadership which continues with politically suicidal political pronouncements.
If the focal issue of elections remains as the removal of President Mugabe of ZANU-PF, the MDC-T will romp to victory in Matabeleland and crush its opponents regardless of their good intentions ,quality or ideology as these are not enough an election in Zimbabwe at the moment.
I will focus on the chances of other political parties in the next four articles.
Dumisani Nkomo can be contacted at dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com