The Sydney Morning Herald
Robyn Dixon in Johannesburg
May 26, 2008
JOHANNESBURG: Zimbabwe hangs in dangerous political limbo: the ruling clique clings to power amid rumours of a coup if the incumbent, Robert Mugabe, loses the presidential run-off.
His opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, far from facing down military hardliners, has returned to Harare after weeks of self-imposed exile, fearing assassination.
As regional leaders dither, a new wave of systematic abductions and killings of top opposition activists suggests a regime unwilling to leave office, even if it loses the second round, scheduled for June 27.
“There’s no way we are going to lose the run-off,” a senior ruling party figure said. “We are going to make sure of that. If we lose … then the army will take over.
“Never be fooled that Tsvangirai will rule this country. Never,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said in Harare, the capital.
Human rights organisations, including the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights, say the level and intensity of the violence far surpasses the violence around elections in 2000 and 2002. Mr Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change says 43 activists have been killed since the first round of voting on March 29.
The opposition charges that the Government is targeting its top activists and officials, saying that at least six have been abducted in the past 10 days by armed security officials, and four have been found dead, after severe beatings and torture. An MDC official said 10 others are missing and feared dead.
At a news conference in Harare on Saturday, hours after arriving from Johannesburg, Mr Tsvangirai said leaders in southern Africa had guaranteed his safety and assured him that election monitors would arrive by June 1 to prevent further violence against his supporters.
“I return to Zimbabwe with a sad heart,” he said. “Even since my return a few hours ago, I have met and listened to the stories of the innocent people targeted by a regime seemingly desperate to cling to power, a dictatorship that has lost the support of the people.”
Some analysts see a mounting threat of a coup, convinced that the punitive violence has only increased Mr Mugabe’s unpopularity in the weeks since he was shocked by his loss to Mr Tsvangirai in the first round. But others predict the regime will opt for at least the pretence of legitimacy, rigging the elections rather than overturning a Tsvangirai victory with military force.
With the rank and file disgruntled at conditions and about the farms and fancy lifestyles of commanders, some predict a coup would split the army.
“It’s the senior officers running the terror campaign in the rural areas,” said Morris, 35, an army captain who did not want his last name published. “It’s being done by colonels and lieutenant-colonels. The lower ranks don’t want what is happening. If the old man lost, he should just give up,” he said, referring to Mr Mugabe.
A report by the International Crisis Group said there was “a growing risk of a coup either before the run-off, in a pre-emptive move to deny Tsvangirai victory, or after a Tsvangirai win”.
An opposition politician, David Coltart, believed there was a risk of a coup. “I think they’re intent on trying to give it some sort of legitimacy through an election.”
Los Angeles Times