The sweet smell that precedes spring rains
By David Coltart
Zimbabwean winters are dry. Between autumn in April and spring in September it does not rain much and by the time it starts warming up the soil is like powder and the velt golden brown. The baking hot days of September and October eventually yield huge, purple, dark, menacing thunder clouds and magnificent displays of thunder and lightening. The air becomes electric. Shortly before those clouds vent themselves we are blessed with perhaps the most luscious smell in the world; for as rain falls in the distance on the parched earth the mix of that moisture, soil and vegetation emits what can only be described as a sweet smell that utterly pervades the senses. That smell is all the richer and more exciting because of the promise it brings of an end to the long winter drought and because it is accompanied by such threat.
There is a real sense in Zimbabwe that our long winter of oppression is coming to an end. Our nation is exhausted and dry; there is much tension in the air and there are many dark clouds looming. It is also rather terrifying with the ominous sights and sounds of lightening and thunder. But at the same time there is a certain sweet smell starting to capture our attention. I am reminded of one of my favourite poems:
SAY not the struggle naught availeth,
The labour and the wounds are vain,
The enemy faints not, nor faileth,
And as things have been they remain.
If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke conceal’d,
Your comrades chase e’en now the fliers,
And, but for you, possess the field.
For while the tired waves, vainly breaking,
Seem here no painful inch to gain,
Far back, through creeks and inlets making,
Comes silent, flooding in, the main.
And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light;
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly!
But westward, look, the land is bright!
Arthur Hugh Clough: 1819–1861
For all the menace that threatens our country at present if we would but look around us we can see that dawn is starting to break through the gloom. In just the past few weeks it has been confirmed that the combined MDC holds a majority in Parliament, that the two factions of the MDC will work together in the national interest, that the region is starting to lose patience with the Harare regime (demonstrated in the turning away of the Chinese ship carrying arms of war for the regime), that the UN is finally taking an active interest in resolving the crisis and that the regime is in greater disarray than ever. As difficult it has been for Morgan Tsvangirai to campaign wherever he goes he has been mobbed by huge crowds.
In fact it is now clear that Mr Mugabe’s position is completely untenable. Even if he were to rig a rerun of the Presidential election (or brazenly announce himself to be the outright winner) the morning after being inaugurated he will have to deal with hyperinflation (for which he no solution), a divided Zanu PF, a loss of legitimacy in the region, a hugely disaffected civil service and minority support in Parliament. The majority party in Parliament, namely the MDC coalition, can now choose the new Speaker, the Chairs of potentially powerful parliamentary committees and can now block Mr Mugabe’s entire legislative agenda. More importantly it easily now commands the one third necessary to commence impeachment proceedings and arguably also has the two thirds it needs to complete that process. I state this because one of the fictions the government press has put out is that all of the 97 Zanu PF MPs support Mugabe; whilst most do a growing number do not. One needs 140 MPs to impeach a President – in other words all we need is the support of 30 Zanu PF MPs loyal to Simba Makoni to reach that figure. There are many Zanu PF back benchers who now understand that the game is up and that their own long term personal best interests will be best served by respecting the wishes of the electorate.
In other words this is in fact the end of the road for Robert Mugabe and his coterie of corrupt ministers and military commanders. What has confused many people is the grim determination displayed by this coterie over the last few weeks. The violence and brutality has shocked many people. But it should not have come as a surprise because this is how nearly all dictatorships have ended down through the ages. Dictatorships do not become gentler or more rational as they near the end; indeed if anything they become more vicious, more irrational and more paranoid.
I recently watched a fascinating German film called “Downfall†directed by Oliver Hirschbiegel, which is about the last 6 weeks of Hitler’s life in his Berlin bunker. The film is astonishing – perhaps because of the superb casting, outstanding acting and the fact that it is in German one has the feeling that one is watching a documentary. What struck me about Hitler in his final days is that he was increasingly delusional, callous about the German people (in particular Berliners) and that he made decisions which actually accelerated the pace of his demise. Hitler was delusional in that he believed that he could still call on armies that had been totally vanquished. Although some of his subordinates pleaded with him to save the lives of tens of thousands of Berliners, he callously stated that they deserved their fate, as they had “let him downâ€. He simply did not care about the awful suffering of women and children and about the fact that beautiful buildings and much of Berlin’s history was being destroyed by the Russian onslaught. He made ridiculous decisions – for example he flew one of his top Luftwaffe leaders all the way to Berlin at great risk to his life, just to tell the man that he had been promoted to command the Luftwaffe – even though it hardly had a single operational plane left flying!
It strikes me that Mugabe is in a similar position and is afflicted by the same characteristics. Of course Mugabe does not have Russian tanks 2 blocks away from State house but mentally he is just as embattled as Hitler and he is acting in a similar fashion. He is certainly delusional – he thinks that he has a solution to our economic woes and continuously speaks of the “economic turn around†when it is obvious to all that he has no solution. He thinks he has Africa on his side when it is increasingly obvious that he has become a painful embarrassment to Africa.
The supremely callous way in which the Zimbabwean people have been treated in the last few years, and especially the last 2 months, is strikingly similar to the way Hitler treated Berliners in those closing few weeks of World War II. In 1945 Hitler said “If the war is lost then it is of no concern to me if the people perish in it. I still would not shed a single tear for them; because they did not deserve any betterâ€. It has been increasingly apparent that a similar sentiment governs the thinking of those responsible for the mayhem of the last few months. In the sole pursuit of keeping Robert Mugabe in power we have seen aid cut off by the regime to starving people, the displacement of thousands of poor Zimbabweans whose sole crime was to vote for the MDC in March and the brutalization of hundreds of MDC activists and supporters. At the same time the Reserve Bank printing presses have been allowed full reign causing rampant inflation which in turn is causing untold misery to millions of Zimbabweans – all just to ensure that the regime survives another few months.
But just as Hitler’s crazed decisions hastened the pace of his own demise, so the Harare regime’s actions are undermining any claim to legitimacy they may have hoped for. The delay in announcing the Presidential results alone made it very difficult for the region to defend the regime as has been the case in the past. The shocking campaign of violence and intimidation directed against the MDC and its supporters over the last few weeks has shamed the entire region. And to whom SADC lends its support is pivotal to the outcome of this long hard struggle for democracy and freedom.
The support that SADC has given the regime over the last few years has been one of the most important buttresses of Mugabe’s rule. The struggle for freedom in Zimbabwe has primarily been a psychological battle, not a physical battle. The regime has managed to maintain morale amongst its own supporters through the myth that their battle is Africa’s battle and that because Africa is behind the regime, it will ultimately prevail over the so called neo colonial forces and imperialist’s puppets. But through their own actions the regime has made it increasingly difficult for sympathetic leaders and nations in SADC to continue giving the unqualified support the regime has enjoyed over the last few years. It is increasingly clear that the regime no longer commands majority support from SADC leaders; some SADC leaders who have been staunch supporters of the regime until recently are now at the forefront of those calling for complete compliance with SADC electoral standards in both letter and spirit.
SADC support is the final battle in this long struggle for freedom. The regime has already lost, irretrievably, the support of the Commonwealth, the EU, and other major international institutions. Without SADC support it is only left with the support of pariah states such as North Korea and Iran, which can do little to support the regime in any event. Without SADC recognition of the election result the last shred of legitimacy the regime has enjoyed will be taken away. And without legitimacy and the recognition that comes with it, the regime will not be able to secure the financial and moral support it needs to survive.
Some argue that the regime no longer cares about SADC support and that, for example, the Myanmar regime ruled by a military junta has survived for many years without international recognition. One cannot ignore that example but there are fundamental differences between the two countries which should not give comfort to any of those contemplating a similar military junta in Zimbabwe. Most importantly Myanmar is supported by a huge and financially strong country on its border, namely China. The chaos in Myanmar has never disrupted the economic growth and stability of China, nor is it ever likely to. In fact the same applies to all Myanmar’s neighbours. In contrast the Zimbabwean crisis is now starting to have deleterious consequences for all our neighbours, especially South Africa. Unlike Myanmar we are geographically situated in the heart of Southern Africa and also used to be the 2nd strongest economy in sub Saharan Africa never mind the region. In other words the region simply cannot afford to allow Zimbabwe to collapse totally. Indeed the region already understands that it now has to be proactive in resolving the crisis if it is to prevent the whole of Southern Africa from being blighted. The region cannot afford to allow the emergence of a military junta in its midst; the SADC Charter prohibits recognition of military juntas and aside from that SADC leaders understand that any open or tacit support of a military junta in their midst will seriously undermine the economy of the entire region.
Accordingly there is no way out now for the Harare regime. If they allow a vaguely democratic electoral process they will blown away by an angry electorate. If they bludgeon or rig their way to “victory†no one aside from distant pariah states will endorse the victory; and without that endorsement the pressure growing on the regime will mount rapidly, unrelentingly and incrementally. In short it is now only a matter of time before the Harare regime will be forced to negotiate a smooth transition to a new democratic order.
We for our part must start to think more positively. For far too long we have viewed ourselves as victims rather than victors. We should start behaving as victors; Nelson Mandela after 27 years in prison did not act like a victim. He stood tall and commanded both the moral and psychological heights. We all need to emulate his example. The international community should act likewise – in the short term we need monitors for the election; in the long term we need the international community to stand alongside democratic forces in a positive, proactive way to ensure that the democratic gains of the last few months are consolidated and expanded. Finally Zimbabweans need to be more positive. They should come back to vote but in any event need to start making plans to return home as soon as they are assured that they will be able to survive economically. Victory is ours for the taking, but only if we act decisively, proactively and urgently.
Senator David Coltart
28th April 2008