Just what ZANU PF’s doctor ordered – Talks collapse further cripples opposition

By Clemence Manyukwe Staff Reporter
Financial Gazette
2nd August 2007

THE collapse of opposition unity talks is like manna from heaven for President Robert Mugabe and ZANU PF and creates an unimpeded path for them to march to victory in next year’s polls, analysts say.

Arthur Mutambara, leader of one faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), at the weekend attacked factional rival Morgan Tsvangirai, describing him as an “intellectual midget” and a “weak and indecisive leader”.Blaming his rival for the failure of attempts to re-unite the two groupings, Mutambara vowed his party would field its own candidate against Tsvangirai and President Mugabe when harmonised elections are held next year. “If Morgan Tsvangirai is such a weak and indecisive leader who cannot embrace what ordinary Zimbabweans are demanding (unity), is he worthy of the presidency of this country? Zimbabweans deserve better leadership.”

Explaining why his faction pulled out of the Save Zimbabwe coalition of opposition groups, Mutambara said the grouping had “become a vehicle to solely advance the perverted agenda of Morgan Tsvangirai”.

However, at a rally in Kuwadzana the following day, Tsvangirai said he remained committed to unity, although he will launch his election campaign in September.

Negotiations collapsed after Tsvangirai refused to publicly endorse a code of conduct ending hostilities and leading to a coalition pact, Mutambara claimed.

The latest mudslinging comes after months of bickering between the factions, which began when the MDC split into entities in October 2005 over disagreements about participating in senate elections.

Analysts say the undoubted beneficiary of the bickering is President Mugabe and his party.Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), said those who understood the MDC had never expected the two factions to re-unite because of what he termed “fundamental personality differences” between its founding figures.

Madhuku, seen as an ally of Tsvangirai, charged that Mutambara was a mere figurehead, and that real power lay with the faction’s secretary general, Welshman Ncube and David Coltart, secretary for legal affairs.

But he conceded the acrimony would further cripple the opposition.“If you have both disunity and the absence of a fair electoral playing field, the result is sure defeat,” Madhuku said.He said voters would have to contend with the current opposition leaders, as it would be impractical to replace them before next year’s polls. But he said upon defeat, both rival leaders should resign to make way for new leadership committed to unity.

Madhuku, whose NCA is part of Save Zimbabwe, denied the grouping was “championing Tsvangirai’s cause”.“I got the impression — from listening to what Arthur was saying and from reading the press statements — that it appears they entered Save Zimbabwe in order to leave it.”

Political analyst John Makumbe said Mutambara has more to lose as a result of the rift.“I think the majority of their candidates will lose some seats in Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South and Bulawayo,” said Makumbe.“There is also the fact that Mutambara is not a quarter as popular as Morgan Tsvangirai, anywhere in Zimbabwe.”The opposition would lose some seats it currently holds to ZANU PF, Makumbe said, but the losses would be limited.“ZANU PF may gain some seats, but it is unlikely to be widespread,” Makumbe said.

However, Tsholotsho independent MP Jonathan Moyo does not believe the split seriously weakens either faction, especially considering that they had split back in 2005. The only new factor was Mutambara’s withdrawal from Save Zimbabwe.
Save Zimbabwe’s purpose had always been to forge a broad alliance around Tsvangirai, says Moyo.“If there are people who say the purpose was not to build a broad based alliance around Tsvangirai, then those people were not part of the alliance. Their denial is inconsequential.”

He added that the Mutambara faction might now even be better positioned for the polls, as they have not yet announced their presidential candidate.The person that will emerge to stand on the faction’s ticket could well prove to be acceptable to the electorate, Moyo says.Both factions might yet emerge stronger from the split.“When ZAPU split in 1963, it did not weaken the nationalist movement. ZANU and ZAPU became formidable forces. There is a possibility of both factions, or either one of the factions, becoming a potent opposition force after the split.”

Coltart on Tuesday described as “nonsense” Madhuku’s claim that Mutambara was a mere figurehead.

He also denied that his faction was responsible for the collapse of unity.“If you look at the resolution passed by (his party’s) national council, it states that we are prepared to adhere to the April agreement. The blame does not lie with us.”
But he described the failure to reach an agreement as “regrettable”, and conceded the split favoured ZANU PF.