Almost a year ago, just after the first horrendous politically motivated murders of MDC activists and farmers had occurred, I sent out a “Message of Hope”. In it I posed the question whether there was any hope for Zimbabwe or whether it was simply destined to an inevitable slide into anarchy. One year on Zimbabweans are still faced with the same question. Last year I answered the question by giving six reasons why there was still hope. One year on it is necessary to revisit those reasons and to give further reasons why there is still hope for Zimbabwe.
1. The violence is a consequence of ZANU(PF)’s fear of losing the election
Last year I warned of a long, hard and rocky road we had to travel in our journey to achieve democracy. Very few Zimbabweans appreciated just how hard that road would be, especially those Zimbabweans living in the north and east of the country who had never experienced the true nature of ZANU(PF) as those from Matabeleland had in the 1980s. We all now know the real ZANU(PF) – it is a party that uses the facade of democracy when it feels secure but which will increasingly resort to violence when it feels threatened.
Last year I said that the increased ferocity of the violence was in itself a sign of hope because, ironically, that in itself was the surest sign of what ZANU(PF) itself thought of its chances of winning, or, more accurately, of losing. Nothing has changed and the increased violence we have witnessed throughout the country in the last few months is the best possible indicator of ZANU(PF)’s sense of alarm. Indeed I have been amazed to see how widespread the violence has been: even in areas like Muzarabani, where I thought the MDC was relatively weak, we have seen violence which indicates that even there ZANU(PF) feels under threat.
But there are several aspects regarding violence that one could not say confidently this time last year. The first is that violence did not work last year as ZANU(PF) hoped it would. Despite the violence the MDC won 57 seats countrywide. Whilst ZANU(PF) can employ violence successfully in by elections it cannot deliver it “effectively” enough countrywide to win. Secondly ZANU(PF) has not been able to deliver on its threats to deliver further violence if people did not vote for them. For example Gukurahundi 2 was threatened against the people of Matabeleland if they did not vote for ZANU(PF). It did not happen and indeed cannot happen again, and that fact has been noted, not just by the people of Matabeland, but also by the entire nation. Thirdly, the violence has backfired and created enormous problems for ZANU(PF) which in itself has created an entirely new reason for hope (see below!)
ZANU(PF) is panicking and that is why we are experiencing increased violence countrywide. Bizarre as it is, in the use of violence there is hope.
2. The MDC horse has already bolted
Last year I wrote about the fact that had violence commenced earlier than it did the MDC may never have got off the ground, but that fortunately the MDC horse had already bolted. One year on that holds even truer. Despite the violence, the beatings of MDC MPs and supporters, the arrest of MDC leaders, the grenade attack on the MDC offices, the withholding of finances, the Political Parties Finance Act, the searches at MDC offices and at the homes of MDC leaders, the lack of coverage on radio and TV, the propaganda war waged against the MDC, the loss of Bikita West and Marondera West, the inability of MDC MPs to block oppressive legislation in Parliament and despite all the various efforts of ZANU(PF) to crush the MDC, the fact remains that the MDC is far stronger now than it was a year ago.
Not only has the horse bolted but it has now strengthened and bred! A few weeks ago I was privileged to go to an MDC policy planning retreat in the Matopos. I came away feeling absolutely exhilarated because of the sense of unity under Morgan Tsvangirai and Gibson Sibanda’s leadership, the sense of unity of purpose from the entire leadership and the sense that the MDC had really come of age and was now ready to govern – none of which could be said last year. In stark contrast in the ZANU(PF) camp all we see is increased division in their ranks, purges, shattered promises (the so called technocrats including Makoni et al have not delivered and have in fact compounded the problems Zimbabwe is facing) and only two things to offer Zimbabwe: violence and economic collapse.
But there is a further important fact to consider. Last year the MDC was campaigning from ground zero. It had no seats, no infrastructure, no credibility as a viable party either locally or internationally. From ground zero it won 57 seats. A year on it has 56 seats, an infrastructure countrywide and is recognised locally and internationally (the ANC is now talking to us). In other words in the run up to the Presidential election we start from an entirely different level – we now have a powerful springboard to mount an even more effective Presidential election campaign than we did in the Parliamentary election.
3. The penny has finally dropped in the international community’s mind
Last year I wrote that after many years in the “political wilderness”, after many years of our warnings about the true nature of the Mugabe regime falling on deaf ears, there was for the first time “massive antipathy towards Mugabe”. One year on how much more so is the case. Indeed at Christmas I wrote about this and even since then it is astonishing how international opinion against the Mugabe regime has hardened dramatically.
Ironically most of the hardening of opinion has not been the work of the MDC but of Mugabe, Jonathan Moyo and the rest of those within ZANU(PF) who are committed to holding on to power using any means. Had ZANU(PF) left the MDC alone, not bombed the Daily News, not threatened the Judiciary, not expelled foreign journalists, not sought to undermine the CFU, not passed the Broadcast Act I doubt very much whether the Commonwealth, EU and others would have paid much attention to Zimbabwe. The fact remains that one year on most of those who were ambivalent, or neutral, or disinterested, last year are now acutely aware of the problems and determined, more than ever before, to do something. Last year ZANU(PF) could take comfort in the fact that the Commonwealth, the ANC and others were prepared to turn a blind eye to rampant human rights abuses perpetrated by ZANU(PF). That is no longer the case.
If any proof is needed of this change one need look no further than the recently passed Political Parties Finance Act which seeks to ban foreign funding of political parties. That Act is an admission by ZANU(PF) that the MDC is now recognised and supported by the international community and, almost just as importantly, that it is now viewed as a pariah party that has no prospect of attracting international support as it has done up until now. Indeed the Political Parties Finance Act contains a very important message to those in Zimbabwe who are still ZANU(PF) apologists, or who believe that a ZANU(PF) victory is inevitable (and therefore should not be opposed) : the Act is an admission that a ZANU(PF) government no longer has the ability to attract international support, not just for its own funding but also for the country at large. This is a theme I shall come back to at the end.
4. ZANU(PF) is increasingly divided
Last year I spoke of the dangerous tactic employed by Mugabe in using the likes of Hitler Hunzvi to campaign and of the fact that that was likely to divide ZANU(PF). I said that thinking people within ZANU(PF) knew that Mugabe’s strategy would devastate the economy and I asked the question as to how long “sane people” would stay on board the ZANU(PF) ship. It has been astonishing to observe how Mugabe has divided and whittled down the support base of ZANU(PF) in just one year.
First we saw the eradication most of ZANU(PF)’s moderates in its primary elections, something which has caused those former ZANU(PF) MPs to form their own new political grouping. Then we saw immediately after the election the alienation of much of the old guard in the appointment of Mugabe’s new cabinet. In the past few months we have seen the purging of more moderate leaders at Provincial level and their replacement by war veterans. In essence what has happened is that the party’s support base has been whittled down to its core, namely the war veterans, and even then not all of them, only the radical element. Mugabe has surrounded himself with a few hard-line war veterans and ambitious politicians who are beholden to him and who do not have the ability to win any constituency in their own right. But in the process Mugabe has seriously alienated whole swathes of ZANU(PF) supporters.
These divisions are increasingly obvious to us in Parliament. Recently we were subjected the spectacle of the present Minister of Justice, Chinamasa (one of those appointed MPs) heckling a former Minister of Justice (and ZANU(PF)’s brightest brain in Parliament by a long shot), Zvobgo when the latter criticised the Broadcasting regulations as being unconstitutional. And in many of the Parliamentary select Committees we see growing evidence of ZANU(PF) MPs (elected ones that is) who are increasingly disillusioned with the course being taken by their leadership. I chair the Parliamentary Justice Committee (which has a majority of ZANU(PF) members) and I have been intrigued to note the unanimity of thought on most issues. My MDC colleagues who sit on other committees report similar developments in their committees.
These divisions will have catastrophic consequences for whoever is the ZANU(PF) candidate in the Presidential election. Parliamentary (single constituency) elections are often won because of the enthusiasm or personal popularity of the individual candidate. Because an individual’s own political career is at stake a person competing for a Parliamentary seat will work hard to ensure that he wins. Likewise voters will often vote for an individual even if they don’t particularly like the party he or she represents. And there is the rub for ZANU(PF): for in alienating the old guard, in disenchanting newly elected ZANU(PF) MPs, by relying on war veterans to do their violent campaigning many who worked for and voted for a ZANU(PF) victory in the Parliamentary elections will not do so in the Presidential elections.
But there is one further, and major division, within ZANU(PF) which was not a factor in the Parliamentary elections and that is over their choice of their Presidential candidate/ticket. In fact it is a no win situation for ZANU(PF) because unlike the overwhelming consensus within the MDC regarding the Tsvangirai/Sibanda ticket, it does not matter who is chosen to represent ZANU(PF) – every choice will not be supported by some significant segment of the party. Mugabe or Mnangagwa will not get support in Matabeleland, Zvobgo areas and Manicaland. Makoni will not get support from Mnangagwa and from areas outside Manicaland and so on. And the divisions within ZANU(PF) can only grow; this is not a party which has a reputation for arriving at a consensus through rational debate, it has always had a leadership which has bludgeoned its way ahead.
5. We are in the majority
Last year I said that “despite all the violence and intimidation the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of Zimbabweans want change”. One year on nothing has altered. Indeed if anything poor people and rural people want change even more now. 52% of voters in June voted for change despite the violence, intimidation and rigging. Since then the economy has spiralled down further and ZANU(PF) has not delivered on a whole range of issues.
Countrywide we are seeing ever greater numbers of people attending MDC meetings. Recently Morgan Tsvangirai has addressed huge meetings, attended by tens of thousands of people (not Jonathan Moyo figures but those assessed by the media!) at venues as far flung as Buhera, Maphisa, Tsholotsho, St Marys and Bulawayo. On a more modest level my last constituency report back meeting in Bulawayo was packed to overflowing, in fact I had the largest attendance ever at that particular venue, even bigger than any meeting held in the run up to the election last year. My Parliamentary colleagues report similar support throughout the country.
I am also struck by the intensity of working class people when they approach me in the street or speak to me at check-out counters at the supermarkets. They are clearly more determined than ever to effect change. In fact I have frequently observed at recent meetings that the crisis of confidence problem in Zimbabwe is very much a white and middle class phenomenon, for there appears to be no such crisis amongst poor black people who know what has to be done and who are quietly preparing for the time to go and vote.
Last year I observed that “if the majority of Zimbabweans agreed with the violence and Mugabe’s tactics we would be in trouble” and that there was only “a tiny, rabid and, increasingly deranged, minority” directing the mayhem”. That has been borne out by the facts: recently I asked the CFU to tell me how many people they estimated were in occupation of commercial farms, the reply was approximately 25000 people, nowhere near the ZANU(PF) propaganda that 50000 families were in occupation. 25000 people is half of one Parliamentary constituency to put the number in perspective. And many of those have been threatened or lured with false promises to occupy. In other words of the over 7 million people who live in the rural areas only some 25000 have benefited from what is the pivot of the ZANU(PF) election campaign. The rest have seen bus fares soar in price, along with the increase in the price of all basic necessities and the crumbling of state services all around them. That is why MDC rallies in the rural areas are attracting more people than ever before.
Finally, and as I alluded to earlier, rural people have noted that ZANU(PF) has been unable to “deliver on its promise” to retaliate against entire constituencies who voted against it. Gukurahundi 2 has not happened against the people of Matabeleland or Manicaland or urban dwellers. Yes there has been violence directed against some of these constituencies but the vast majority of those who voted MDC have not been affected by it. And as I have said before the drift of political thought in Zimbabwe has always been urban to rural not vice versa. The rural populations who voted for ZANU(PF) last year have much more food for thought come the Presidential elections. The process of change is unstoppable even in the face of massive violence. The majority I spoke about a year ago has grown.
6. There is ancient wisdom which provides hope
Last year I wrote about the inevitable consequences for rulers who violate God’s fundamental principles of governance. I quoted Isaiah 1:31 which speaks of how mighty men become tinder and their own works become the spark of their own destruction.
In the past few months at many meetings and in Parliament I have quoted Psalm 7: 14-16 and those words bare repeating today :
“He who is pregnant with evil and conceives trouble gives birth to disillusionment.
He who digs a hole and scoops it out falls into the pit he has made.
The trouble he causes recoils on himself; his violence comes down on his own head.”
That is just what has happened in the past year. Mugabe and his henchmen have sown the seeds of their own destruction. As I pointed out above in seeking to destroy the opposition in all its many forms by bombing the Daily News, attacking the Judiciary and so on ZANU(PF) have incurred the wrath of the international community, have strengthened the resolve of those in opposition and have irredeemably weakened their own position.
Last year I spoke of the historical precedents which make these words, written thousands of years ago, a reality. One year on I am more convicted than ever of the stunning truth of this ancient wisdom. The evidence is before our very eyes.
But there is yet more ancient wisdom which is particularly pertinent at this stage of our Nation’s history:
“Be still before the Lord and wait patiently for him;
do not fret when men succeed in their ways, when they carry out their wicked schemes.
Refrain from anger and turn from wrath; do not fret – it only leads to evil.
For evil men will be cut off, but those who hope in the Lord will inherit the land.
A little while, and the wicked will be no more;
though you look for them they will not be found.
The wicked plot against the righteous and gnash their teeth at them;
but the Lord laughs at the wicked,
for he knows their day is coming.” Psalm 37: 7-13
There are many in our midst who are tired after over a year of violence and “wicked schemes”. There are many who feel they cannot wait until the end of March next year (when the Presidential election must held by). There are many who believe that the best solution is to take the law into their own hands. There are many who believe that only a call to arms will work in dislodging this murderous regime from power. These words speak very powerfully to all those who fit into any of the abovementioned categories.
The encouragement is that just as the consequences of evil rule is inevitable so too is the promise that if we patiently commit ourselves to grinding out this hardship peacefully through the ballot before we know it this entire wicked bunch will be swept away. Their day is indeed coming.
Which leads me to the seventh reason for hope, not mentioned last year.
7. ZANU(PF) has created the ultimate catch 22 for itself.
In sowing what it thought would be the seeds of destruction of the opposition and in blending the land issue with violence, ZANU(PF) has done severe damage to the economy and has incurred the wrath of the international community. As a result ZANU(PF) now cannot deliver on the land issue without forfeiting its violence strategy because the international community will not fund this illegality. And yet ZANU(PF) cannot afford to suspend its violence partly because it is irreversible (dead people cannot be brought back to life and the legal consequences for the murderers will not go away) and partly because it knows that without the use of violence the Presidential election will be lost overwhelmingly.
They are left with three options:
1. To continue with their present policies unabated but that will mean they have even less capacity to deliver on the land issue and will incur the wrath of increasing sectors of the international community;
2. To suspend the violence and to proceed with the land programme within the confines of the law, with the consequences mentioned above;
3. To continue the oppression but get key sectors of Zimbabwean society, such as the Judiciary and the CFU to negotiate and to turn a blind eye to systematic violence perpetrated against other sectors of society, thus securing the international assistance they require to deliver on the pillar of their election campaign, namely land – in other words to have their cake and eat it.
The only way out of the catch 22 created by the first two options is by means of the third option. The undermining of the Judiciary and its ongoing subversion linked with the Swanepoel/Bredenkamp “initiative” is undoubtedly ZANU(PF)’s desired way of wriggling out of its predicament. For if it can get the Judiciary to look the other way in the face of breaches of both the Land Acquisition Act and the criminal law and get the CFU to give ZANU(PF) a “clean bill of health”, ZANU(PF) believes it can get the international community on board, fund the land programme, get some semblance of order back to the productive sector and yet continue to oppress the MDC and its supporters.
Fortunately ZANU(PF) has misjudged the naivety of the international community and the resilience of many sectors of Zimbabwean society including the Judiciary and the farming community. And in that lies hope because ZANU(PF) now have to face the catch 22 square on and there is no way out for them: they will have to confine themselves to the first two options and both are extremely perilous courses of action for them.
The way ahead
Last year I ended by stressing that whilst striking an optimistic note it was important to remember that violence and human rights abuses would continue and indeed escalate as ZANU(PF) became more desperate. Nothing has changed and I am under no illusions whatsoever that Mugabe and henchmen will use whatever means they deem necessary to cling to power. This is, after all, an end game for them: they have everything to lose. They know that if they lose not only will their corrupt activities be exposed but they will also have to face the legal consequences of their violent 21 year tenure of power.
In these circumstances what can we do? I am aware of the one school of thought promoted by the Bredenkamps of this world and also by some in the business sector: that is that a ZANU(PF) victory in the Presidential election will be the best way out so that the violence can stop and life can get back to normal. In fact it has been reported back to me that some in this camp are even predicting and promoting a ZANU(PF) victory. It is a seductive line of thinking but is fatally flawed in the following respects.
1. It ignores the overwhelming desire of the vast majority of poor black Zimbabweans for fundamental change and, perhaps more importantly, the now deeply rooted anger against ZANU(PF) and its hierarchy. It assumes that the vast majority will just accept a flawed electoral process and the prospect of a further 21 years of violent, corrupt and despotic rule. This thinking betrays how out of touch the Bredenkamps of Zimbabwe and other whites are with the deeply held feelings of poor black Zimbabweans. It is the same thinking that led Rhodesians to believe in 1980, ironically, that ZANU(PF) could never win an overall majority then. I personally cannot claim to be an expert in the feelings of poor black Zimbabweans; I can only comment with authority on what I see and hear in the high density suburbs in my constituency and what I hear from my MDC colleagues. But I believe that I am much better in touch with the reality of what is going on on the ground than people who are almost completely untouched by the devastating consequences of Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown.
2. It ignores the new reality in world politics. The world will simply not look the other way this time. The thinking is that once the Presidential elections are over and ZANU(PF) has won, sane policies will be implemented by the new ZANU(PF) President and the world will simply forgive and forget. There is no longer any cold war and there is no motivation to turn a blind eye to massive human rights violations. The nations which truly count in the world, the nations which have the power to open the IMF and World Bank taps, will simply not cooperate until there is a full restoration of the rule of law, and that means not just a peaceful and lawful land reform programme but also the bringing to book of all those responsible for murder. Those who believe that if the land issue is resolved in isolation, funds will flow to Zimbabwe are woefully mistaken.
3. It ignores the depressing reality of middle class thinking in Zimbabwe. In the last few years Zimbabwe has experienced an unprecedented brain drain. It is a serious mistake to think that this is confined to the white community. The cream of our black professionals have left the country. The reality is that what is a brain drain trickle now, will become a flood in the event of a ZANU(PF) victory. Furthermore if ZANU(PF) wins the Presidential election very few of our professionals, who have left, will see any hope for the future and they will not return as we desperately need them to. The point is that those who advocate the expedient route of a ZANU(PF) victory ignore the reality that if that happens, Zimbabwe as we know it today, even in its depressed and chaotic state, will be utterly destroyed and the rich who are promoting this thinking will be left as tiny islands in a sea of desolation. This is not a threat: it is simply a predictable consequence.
The way ahead then is not to entertain naive thoughts about a “middle road” or a “reformed ZANU(PF)”. There is no middle road and no prospect of a reformed ZANU(PF) – it is violent and corrupt to the core. Likewise any thoughts that the rich may have that they can ride the storm and ignore the reality of what is going on around them.
The only way ahead is to commit ourselves to getting through this final tough lap on the road to democracy without compromising our principles. We can be very proud of those Zimbabweans who have stood up to evil in the past year. Looking back we can see that MDC members, leaders and Parliamentarians, the Trade Unions, the Judiciary, farmers and poor rural and high density dwellers have stood firm. Now is the time for everyone to stand up for what is right. No one promises that it will be easy but if we love this country and want a future in it for ourselves, our children and our grand children, we have no choice. However together, in all the wonderful meaning of that word, rich and poor, black and white, Shona and Ndebele, urban and rural, we will complete the change to a better life for all. The power to do so is truly in our hands.
David Coltart MP
Bulawayo South
Movement for Democratic Change